Blogs

A new issue of the TREND letter has been sent and should appear in subscribers' email inboxes overnight. 

A new issue of the TREND letter has been sent and should appear in subscribers' email inboxes overnight. 

The most recent TTT was sent to readers on June 15th.

Days prior to the market top in April, as nearly lone voices in the industry, we warned subscribers that despite the maddening bleating of cheerleader shysters in the mass media we were not in a bull market and that bearish divergences were mounting.  We noted that the 200-week moving average of the Dow Jones Industrial Average would prove difficult to cross, and indeed that is exactly where the rally ended and the downtrend resumed in this multi-year bear market. 

A new Flash Report has being sent and should appear in subscribers' email inboxes overnight. 

In May we saw new home sales collapse by a record 33%, to a low of 300,000 units at an annual rate. This surpasses the previous all-time low of 341,000 set back in April 2009 when the economy was deep in recession. In addition, April was revised down to 446,000 from 504,000 and March to 389,000 from 439,000. The last time we saw new home sales make a new low within a year of a recession was during the double dip of the early 1980s.

Robert Shiller on Bloomberg today: "Housing prices have been falling again for the past 6 months...the double dip in housing may have already started." To watch video, CLICK HERE

Pimco's Mohamed El-Erian talks about the guts of a secular bear.

"We're starting to get people to realize that we're not in a 'V' anymore, (it's) more like a square root"... "We're going to come back off (the bottom) and then we're going to level off at about 2 percent growth....Put it all together and it's an image of the private sector delevering and the government relevering...That is not an ingredient for sustainable growth. That is the ingredient for a multi-year adjustment."

The global central banks are working hard to put on a positive spin these days. The fact that there was no new negative news on the sovereign debt front last week provided enough ammunition for some short-term profit taking in the risk aversion trade – that being long dollars, short stocks, short commodities.