Our Results

We are proud of our record, displayed in the tables below, which we update regularly.  These percentages reflect the average return per trade in our published portfolios. 

the TREND letter - Open Positions (as at August 21, 2010)

Portfolio % Change
Conservative    +102.79%
Moderate   +210.92%
Aggressive     +38.51%
China Factor   +67.49%
Value Stocks     -3.30%
Oil & Gas     -.36
Dow Jones Industrial Average       -1.50%
NASDAQ     +20.91%
S&P 500       -5.31%

 

the TREND letter - Closed Trades (since we began publishing in March 2002).

Portfolio % Gain
Conservative +78.72%
Moderate +170.59%
Aggressive +74.43%
China Factor +258.55%
Value Stocks +89.01%
Oil & Gas +82.67%

 

TREND Technical Trader Macro Market Commentary

Jan 07 2010 - Simply put, the markets remain in a state of turning over and likely resuming the primary bear market that has been in effect since mid-2007.  The masses remain in denial of the potential dangers and blindly bullish as we hedge with our short positions.

Jan 09 2010 – Many say the bear market is over, however those who reject complacency will notice it remains fully in effect.

 

DJIA dropped 800 points over the following month.

 

March 01 2010 - Markets are likely topping out for some time to come, however the topping process takes weeks or months.

 

March 30 2010 – Technical measures are still not showing bull market trending so we remain very cautious.

 

April 2010 – Bearish divergences are mounting.  Historical resistance is immediately above and should prove difficult to cross.

 

DJIA tops April 26. 

 

May 06 2010 - The current multi-month rally is very fragile and fundamentally, logically and technically bogus.  This is not the time to buy on dips, or to be deluded into the belief that equities or dividend yields currently or anytime in the near future, represent value. 

 

Later that same day, during the so-called “flash crash” the DJIA drops almost 1400 points.  By July it is trading regularly 1644 points lower. 

 

May 10 2010 – We remain in a multi-year bear market and given last week’s action the enormous bounce began March 2009 is very likely over. 

 

DJIA is 1061 points lower two weeks later.

 

June 09 – Today we are essentially speculating on an intermediate term bounce in the markets. 

 

DJIA is 727 points higher almost two weeks later.

 

June 15 – Last issue, against overwhelming popular sentiment we offered countertrend ideas to take advantage of a market bounce.  We expect the current market rally to end corresponding with IOO in the $58-61 range at best. 

 

IOO subsequently topped at $58.17

 

July – The current market bounce is an ideal opportunity to re-establish our short bias.

 

DJIA tops on August 09 and by the 25th is 782 points lower.

 

 

TREND Technical Trader (as at August 15, 2010)*

Positions Average Profit % Average Holding Time Annualized **
Closed  + 4 %  28 days  + 52 %
Open  + 5 %  51 days  + 36 %
       
Longs  + 6 %  41 days  + 54 %
Shorts  + 2 %  25 days  + 29 %

 

The table above shows we succeed in our mission of realizing far beyond average profits with far below average amounts of risk.  This type of consistency allows us to rest easy despite very erratic markets.   

Best of all, we were always hedged against market collapse thus virtually at no real risk.  We even managed to profit on that insurance (shorts, effective shorts & stop losses), unlike long-only investors who are fully exposed to the market's downside, all thanks to our hedging with careful resaerch, well-timed entries, and prudent stops. 

 

* TREND Technical Trader results are rounded up or down to the nearest whole number, based on the entry and exit prices achieved for the trade.  "Time" is a count of market days since the position was opened. 

** "Annualized" is the implied result on an annualized basis, not compounded. 

 

PAST RESULTS ARE NO GUARANTEE OR INDICATOR OF FUTURE RESULTS.