We are pleased to display our record below, which we update regularly. These percentages reflect the average return per trade in our published portfolios.
Past results are no guarantee of future performance.
the TREND letter - open positions as of May 12, 2013
|Oil & Gas||none|
the TREND letter - closed positions since inception in March 2002
|Oil & Gas||+76.07%|
TREND Technical Trader - market commentary
November 23, 2012 - A recap of how our Indicators can be used by a wide variety of investors and speculators. The icon we post daily (bullish, uncertainy, or bearish) is a read on what the near-term situation is. Our daily commentary fills in the blanks, and at times suggests when it may be a good time for the brave to try to go against the trend.
DAILY: Those trading day-to-day would have entered a bearish position on the morning of November 08 after the last bearish turn in the Daily Indicator. We normally suggest UDOW for longs and SDOW for shorts, which are levered ETFs.
SDOW opened at $73.34 that day, and at the subsequent highs a gain of 7% was available in under two weeks.
At the bullish turn, UDOW was $50.32 and closed as of this writing at $53.45 which is over 6% higher in less than three days. Best of all, no intra-day trading is required, though these results can be bettered by those who trade nimbly intra-day (however they also assume more risk).
WEEKLY: This Indicator is for those who don't mind trading with some frequency, who prefer to hold positions for the intermediate or longer term but appreciate the need to hedge at times. This type of investor may prefer not to read our update more often than weekly, and may prefer not to participate in shorting other than for a hedge when it seems prudent per our Weekly Indicator.
The Weekly Indicator turned bearish as of October 15, when the DJIA was 13328. A month later the DJIA was 12472, 856 points or 6.5% lower. That's a massive drop, and those who hedged their portfolios with a position in SDOW were up 20% at the market lows. Best of all, the big drop in equities would've given these hedged investors little or no stress and possibly even resulted in an overall gain in their portfolios!
November 01, 2012 - The biggest 1-day rally in 6 weeks occurs and the world is bullish while we maintain our bearish stance and write that it "will prove to be only a bounce". The following day all of those gains are reversed, and by mid-month the DJIA is 700 points lower.
October 16, 2012 - Our proprietary Gold Trend Indicator signals a turn in gold. Two weeks later, the suggested position is up over 8%.
October 10, 2012 - We remove our bullish market signal. Five weeks later, the DJIA is down 8%.
September 14, 2012 - This was the day that the U.S. Federal Reserve announced "QE3" or as some call it "QE to infinity" due to its open-ended nature. While the world was predicting a massive ongoing rally for equities and commodities, we cautioned that any bullish effect on the market would be short-lived and that there seemed no impediments left to a bear market resumption in equities and commodities worldwide.
A broad array of global indexes and commodities peaked on that very day, and two months later the DJIA is 1175 points lower.
August 08, 2012 - We warn that it looks like a "rolling top" is forming in the markets. Roughly a month later, markets top out for the year.
We also offer charts showing that a speculative entry in Mega Uranium (MGA) seems compelling, however warning that below our stop level it is likely to plummet. In the past we've made massive gains on this stock, the key being to get out using proper stop levels while people following other advisories have lost their shirts holding on as it drops ever lower from its spectacular highs years ago. The position loses roughly 12% when our suggested stop is hit, then goes on to plunge another 30% over the following month. Despite the loss, this shows the value in our calls which include prudent stop level suggestions. We'd alerted readers that it was due to move big one way or the other, and while it unfortunately moved against us those using our suggested stop level averted a major loss.
June 12, 2012 - The Gold Trend Indicator signals a bullish turn in gold. Four months later, the suggested position is up over 21%.
May 21, 2012 - We book a 20% gain after being triple-short the market for virtually all of the year's biggest decline so far.
May 16, 2012 - We score +17% on half our long-term silver short, after making 92% on that same half-position last year then purchasing it back much lower.
At the same time we're +15% on our open gold short position from late March, making this 9 out of 11 successful calls by our proprietary gold trading system (GTI) since inception almost two years ago.
May 03, 2012 - We post a warning on silver and gold. Already double-short both gold and silver profitably, on this day we warn subscribers that the drop in precious metals looks about to accelerate. Nine days later, our preferred silver short is 25% higher and our preferred gold short is 13% higher than when we issued this warning.
March 20, 2012 - Our Gold Trend Indicator signals a turn in gold. The suggested position is up over 13% within two months.
January 26, 2012 - We recommend shorting BBY, Best Buy Inc. As of this writing four months later it has dropped almost 25%, however we were stopped out for a loss of 1% on the position due to an unlucky spike higher before it began tanking. Great call, prudent stop in place, but unfortunately no profit.
January 25, 2012 - We book +30% on our MSI, Motorola Solutions Inc., position after holding it just under a year.
January 16, 2012 - Our GTI gives a bullish signal for gold. Five weeks later, our recommended position is 15% higher.
January 10, 2012 - We book +13.7% on our market long position, and advise it's a good time to book the gains on our gold short position which at that time is up 8% in five weeks (it had hit a high of +21%).
January 05, 2012 - We're bullish and buy Goldman Sachs, while the world is ultra-bearish on banks. Two months later the stock is 36% higher. We closed our position for a gain of 23% in just one month.
January 03, 2012 - We take a loss of 6.5% on our remaning hedge market short position, after it having been up 12% at one point. For balance, we do have a market long which is up 8.7% at this time, as well as other long equities holdings that are doing well.
On gold & silver, we warn: "We are of the belief that if markets go higher in 2012, gold and silver might rise too but will underperform equities. If markets drop, gold and especially silver will drop relatively more."
As of this update in mid-May, that outlook is correct.
December 19, 2011 - We warn that "There is a chance that the market is following a technical pattern that could result in a big surprise rally to above 13000." The DJIA was at 11375 when we wrote that, and in the subsequent three months the market rose virtually daily, eventually hitting a high of 13300.
December 12, 2011 - We update the results of our GTI. In the preceeding 8 months gold is flat, while our GTI is up 44% non-compounded, and recent options suggestions were up over 300% in mere days.
December 06, 2011 - Our proprietary Gold TREND Indicator gives a bearish signal. Within two weeks the suggested gold short position is already more than 20% higher.
Our U.S. dollar long via UUP is at its highs of 2011, and we remain virtually alone in the world in being very bullish and long the U.S. dollar since the exact lows in early March of this year.
November 30, 2011 - We update results of our proprietary TREND Indicators.
November 28, 2011 - The news is all doom and gloom, and the masses are selling in panic, however our Daily TREND Indicator turns bullish. The next morning our suggested position opens at $53.19 and the day after hits $59.95, or +12.7%. 3 days later it hits $62 or +16.5%
November 23, 2011 - In the evening we advise to cover shorts and consider going long. The next morning stocks are slightly lower but by just 3 market days later the DJIA is over 700 points higher, or 6%. At that point the long suggestions we'd offered are 6%, 3%, 2%, 25%, and 20% respectively (the latter two obviously having carried relatively high risk).
November 13, 2011 - We warn that the next major market move should be downward, and post an updated chart study which can be seen here.
Eight trading days later, the DJIA is down 900 points (7.3%)
October 27, 2011 - After turning bullish at the exact bottom in early October while the masses were selling in panic, in our evening Daily Update a few weeks later we post new chart studies and caution, "the DJIA and GS are coming up against material trend resistance. October has been the highest-gaining month in DJIA history and we suggest limiting overall long exposure after such historic, sharp rallies."
At that time of that warning, our proprietary Daily TREND Indicator had been bullish every day but one through the historic massive October rally. However the day after our October 27th warning turns out to be the highest market close of the past four months, and as of Nov. 23 (18 trading days later) the DJIA was 900 points, or 7.5%.
October 26, 2011 - Our Gold TREND Indicator gives a bullish signal, and the suggested position is up over 10% within two weeks.
October 17, 2011 - We offer subscribers a new hedge position idea. This one doesn't work out, and we're stopped out for an approximately 8.5% loss a week later. This was a hedge against being long however, so on net the month is still a very successful one for our methods and suggestions.
October 03, 2011 - On this day we write : "PLEASE NOTE : Market crashes often end in October. Also market turns often happen on a Tuesday. As everyone panics over a possible market crash and economic collapse, we're hedged and looking ahead to the coming rallies." We suggest four stocks that might start big bounces the next day.
The next day the equities market begins the biggest October rally in history, and the suggested stocks are up an average of 7% within days.
October 03, 2011 - We write that "We do not suggest closing gold short positions, unless perhaps there is a massive intraday or overnight drop. Let's say of $75 USD/oz or more vs. the previous close in gold, in which case we'd close at least half the DZZ [gold double-short] position." The next day gold drops $76 from the gold market's October 03 NY close.
September 28, 2011 - We publish an update on our proprietary Gold Trend Indicator, arguably the best and most accurate gold trading tool in the world.
September 18, 2011 - In this issue of the TTT newsletter we conclude that "the markets are perilous, and those going forward without some form of timely hedging are very likely to be in for a very rough and possibly disastrous ride." That week turns out to be the worst for gold in six years, the worst for silver in 30 years, and the DJIA drops as much as 905 points which equates to 7.9% ! This helps make the quarter the worst for the stock market since the panic in 2008.
September 15, 2011 - We publish an update on our "Omen-ous" charts, a chart study originally published in February 2011 which we argued was a very bad omen for the markets. The year's market high was roughly two months later. In this update, we urged caution and made note of tremendous upside resistance for the market. One week later, the DJIA was a massive 850 points lower.
September 14, 2011 - We publish a chart study and short thesis on GMCR and write that "it's had quite an incredible run [however] it is doomed to collapse at some point." Two weeks later it is 17% lower, two months later it is 63% lower.
September 13, 2011 - We publish a blog post for all readers of the site, titled "Why We're Short Silver". By month's end silver is making worldwide news for having its worst week in 30 years, during which TTT followers were short therefore profiting from silver's historic drop.
In this posting we also write that "we believe the next major move [in gold] will be downward and we hope to make another big gain when the GTI gives a shorting signal."
Our GTI (Gold Trend Indicator) flashed a bearish signal on Tuesday September 20, of which TTT subscribers were alerted. By the end of that same week, gold had its worst week in six years and our recommended gold short position was up as much as 22% from our entry.
September 12, 2011 - "Those who played ZSL as a swing trade recently after our buy suggestion made between 6% overnight and as much as 19% two days later. Those aiming for a "home run" may just sit tight and ignore the wild fluctuations. We continue to be bullish ZSL (effectively bearish silver) and think it a good entry below $12."
The next two days ZSL trades below $12. Two weeks later it is 90% higher at which time we recommend taking profits.
September 06, 2011 - Markets look to be bouncing and we warn to "expect highs for this move circa 11340 [...]" The DJIA hits 11477 briefly two days later, but for the most part the highs are circa 11400 before plunging to 10824 just days later. Since late July our intermediate and longer-term trading indicators, which are updated for subscribers daily, have been bearish.
August 31, 2011 - Markets hit a high, with the DJIA exactly at the upper end of the resistance area we'd been indicating for two weeks. A few days later GMCR is as much as 10% below our sugested short sell levels.
August 30, 2011 - We warn of an imminent reversal and reiterate again the overhead resistance levels we've identified and we note that "Those who played the recent bullish turn in the Daily Short Trend Indicator (STI) with a levered ETF were at today's highs up circa 17% within just five trading days and we strongly suggest booking such gains. [NOTE - this is a different gainer than the long play mentioned below on August 11]. Satistically, the next winning move will probably be on a bearish signal. Also statistically, turning bearish now should prove a well-timed move." Further, we recommend shorting GMCR.
August 25, 2011 - We suggest going long SRG (trading in Canada). Nine trading days later it is 47% higher.
August 22, 2011 - We suggest effectively shorting silver via ZSL. Within two days we're suggesting that while we still like it longer-term, conservative traders book the 15% gains on the table after ZSL makes a high 19% above our entry level.
August 16, 2011 - We begin to caution daily that "On any major rallies we suggest looking to exit longs in the 11600-11800 range in the DJIA at most." The eventual high is 11697 on August 31.
August 11, 2011 - In a special morning intraday update we state that "We believe there'll be a strong rally [from this point]" and by that evening our proprietary short-term trading signal (Daily STI) is bullish for the first time since July 26. Days later the DJIA is 500 points higher, 800 points above our predicted support level. The trade ideas we'd offered at this time were up 6% and 12% within a day.
August 08, 2011 - We'd remained bearish during the entire drop so far and finally suggest a long play, TBT at $27.15 though note it is "still highly speculative." The idea is stopped out for a loss of 1.7%
While the investment world panics we note that "Market support may be seen circa 10700" and the eventual August intraday low turns out to be the next day at 10604 with a low close two days later at 10719. The subsequent bounce reaches just shy of 11700 approximately two weeks later, which we noted well in advance would be the "top of the resistance range for the rally".
August 03 2011 - "We believe a protracted bear move to much lower levels is most likely."
July 31 2011 - Our proprietary monthly trend indicator for conservative investors, traders and hedgers turns bearish. Seven trading days later, the DJIA is 1500 points lower.
July 26 2011 - Our proprietary short-term trend indicator (STI) for aggressive traders turns bearish. Within two weeks the DJIA is 2000 points lower. During this move, our short-term trend indicator remained on a bearish signal the entire time.
July 11 2011 - Our Gold Trend Indicator (GTI) gives a bullish signal, and five weeks later our preferred way to play it is up 30%
July 05 2011 - GTI bear signal, after which the preferred play loses almost 8% in just days. We can't win them all.
June 13 2011 - "A bounce in the markets seems now nearly certain, however remain vigilant as it is from oversold levels that the worst market crashes often occur. Speculative long positions may now prove profitable if markets can consistently trade, or at least once close, above the Daily STI level. Speculative long positions might include QLD and FAS for the NASDAQ and financials sector respectively, which we warn are double and triple levered respectively, or BGU for the DJIA (warning - BGU is also triple-levered)."
Five weeks later QLD is 19% higher, FAS has been 16% higher, and BGU 21% higher.
June 12 2011 - "In closing ... that's very bearish for the US economy and stock market, so we'll be looking for good short entries during the expected market bounce."
May 21 2011 - "Danger Signal for equities." Three weeks later, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is 700 points lower.
May 01 2011 - "Those buying silver in the high-$40 range probably did so at the top of a parabolic rise that’s doomed to end very badly. Caution is especially warranted. Consider booking at least partial profits. It seems as if we’re at the beginning of the end for the super-spike in silver. We cannot caution strongly enough that those planning to "buy the dip" realize that this may well be a top not a dip. $30 silver before the end of May would not surprise us."
That was written the day before the silver crash began, at the exact top of silver's price rise. Silver then suffered its worst week in 30 years, hitting a low of $32 which is a drop of 35%. We then forecast a "bounce to over $40 before a move to much lower prices than any current precious metals bull could believe." In early August silver hit $42 before dropping 10% in one day. We believe this may be the start of a new leg down to fresh lows.
May 01 2011 - "We are in what increasingly looks like a major drawn-out top in commodities and the general equities markets."
The next day the DJIA hits its highest level for the year, and by early August it is over 13% lower.
That same day oil hits its high for the year, despite "experts" almost unanimously calling for much higher oil prices. As of this writing in early August, it is almost 27% lower.
That same day silver hits its high for the year. Corn was slightly higher in June and is now lower. By July wheat was 25% lower and has not been higher since we made the above call. Cattle made a high exactly one month later, then dropped over 17% Cotton has only traded lower since this call, as much as 15% lower. Etc. (The preceding figures updated in early August).
April 14 2011 - GTI "bull" signal reconfirmed. As of the end of April, our chosen play is up over 20% since the February "bull" signal.
March 10 2011 - Our recent charts gave us great certainty that a market reversal would happen, and clarity when it would happen, against mass sentiment. Those who heeded our suggestion to lighten up on long positions, or to sell covered calls against longs, or buy put options, should be well-pleased and have great gains to consider booking.
February 21 2011 - Subscribers are advised that our GTI has given a "bull" signal.
Six trading days later our preferred ETF is up 5.5%
February 08 2011 - "What does this all mean? It means un-hedged longs are taking unusually high risks. Such extreme risk-takers may be rewarded with a record year in which markets "melt-up" but the odds are very much against it. History, along with mass sentiment and technical studies, suggests that a large and sudden drop in equities is overdue."
Five weeks later the DJIA is 700 points lower.
January 05 2011 - Subscribers are advised that our proprietary Gold Trend Indicator has given a "bear" signal, which we use to short gold via our preferred ETF’s. Gold itself hit its high for the year just 2 days before. As of Jan 27 2011, just 15 trading days later, our preferred method of shorting gold is up almost 8%.
December 09 2010 - Subscribers are advised that our proprietary Gold Trend Indicator has given a "neutral" signal, which we use to exit gold and gold-related holdings. As it turns out, gold made its high for the quarter just 2 days previous and did not move higher until 2 months later.
November 21 2010 - Subscribers are advised that our proprietary Gold Trend Indicator has given a "bull" signal. As of 10 trading days later, our preferred method of trading gold was up almost 11%.
August 2010 – "We expect a relief rally starting any day now."
Against mass sentiment at the time, a relief rally begins the following day leading through the best September in over 70 years.
July 2010 – "The current market bounce is an ideal opportunity to re-establish our short bias."
The DJIA drops 782 points lower in August.
June 2010 – "Today we are essentially speculating on an intermediate-term bounce in the markets."
The DJIA is 727 points higher two weeks later.
May 06 2010 – "The current multi-month rally is very fragile and fundamentally, logically and technically bogus."
The next day, during the so-called "flash crash" the DJIA drops almost 1400 points. The "flash crash" started below the level at which we advised to be completely out of long positions. By July the DJIA is 1644 points lower.
April 2010 – "Bearish divergences are mounting. Historical resistance is immediately above and should prove difficult to cross." The DJIA tops in April & it is December before the senior index is trading regularly higher.
March 2010 – "Markets are likely topping out for some time to come, however the topping process may take weeks so we remain very cautious."