Market Pulse: Semis & Bitcoin Hit Key Turning Points

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Semiconductors

Nvidia is about to report earnings, so it’s a good moment to look at the overall semiconductor sector. The chart we’re referring to shows the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) along with its long-term trend line (the 200-week moving average).

Here’s the key idea:

  • When the price of SMH gets far above this long-term trend line, the sector has often pulled back.
  • In the past, when SMH traded more than 100% above that trend line, it later dropped 45% and 32%.

Last week, SMH again climbed to about 105% above its long-term average—similar to those earlier warning levels. It has since started to pull back. While this doesn’t guarantee a drop, it suggests the sector may be at risk of a larger correction based on past patterns.

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin chart shows the price has been moving inside an upward channel since September 2023.

  • The top of the channel has repeatedly stopped Bitcoin’s rallies (shown by red arrows).
  • The bottom of the channel has repeatedly supported the price during pullbacks (shown by green arrows).

Today, Bitcoin is testing that lower support level — and this is important. If that support doesn’t hold, a bigger drop could follow.

From here, there are two likely scenarios:

  1. Support holds → Bitcoin rebounds
    • It could make another run toward its all-time highs near $125,000.
    • But it might first stall around $100,000, then retest the lower channel again.
  2. Support breaks → Larger decline
    • If the lower channel fails, prices could slide much more sharply, possibly toward the $75,000 area.

In short: Bitcoin is at an important turning point where it could either bounce higher or break down into a deeper pullback.

Stay tuned!