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Market Pulse
The Week That Was — Aug 14–21, 2026
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| Hello Investors, |
| It’s all connected — and this week proved it again. Bonds, gold, oil, and bitcoin all moved on the same two storylines: Washington’s scramble to control borrowing costs, and Washington’s escalating economic war with Iran. Here’s what mattered. |
| Bond Yields: Treasury Blinks, Market Doesn’t Buy It |
- The 10-year hit 4.74% on Friday — a fresh 20-month high — even after the Treasury tried to talk yields down mid-week.
- The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33% this week — its highest level in nearly 20 years, last seen in the summer of 2007, just before the financial crisis.
- Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the department would double its long-bond buybacks to $4 billion next quarter, hoping to cap borrowing costs. It worked for about a day.
- Fed Chair Kevin Warsh muddied the picture further, signaling a rate hike ‘may not be his preferred tool’ to fight inflation — leaving markets guessing ahead of Jackson Hole.
- The number behind all of it: US national debt just hit a record $40,060,947,165,774. That works out to $116,507 for every citizen and $360,794 for every taxpayer — up a full trillion dollars in just five months.
- Bottom line: at a 19-year high of 5.33%, the 30-year yield is tightening the screws on everyone who borrows money. Mortgage rates move higher, corporate borrowing gets more expensive, and the AI buildout — running on cheap debt — suddenly costs a lot more to finance. And a government $40 trillion in debt faces a crushing interest bill that already exceeds defence spending. Higher for longer isn’t just a Fed slogan anymore. It’s the new cost of doing business in America.
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| Gold: Best Week Since Mid-May |
- Gold broke above $4,600/oz on Friday, its highest level since mid-May, extending weekly gains to roughly 5%.
- The trigger: growing alarm over US fiscal sustainability after national debt crossed the $40 trillion mark (see above) — the fastest single-trillion increase on record.
- Central banks aren’t waiting around either — they bought a record 288.9 tonnes in Q2, up 62% year-over-year, buying into weakness, not strength.
- Bottom line: every time Washington tries to manage its own debt problem, gold gets another bid. That dynamic isn’t going away.
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| Oil: Iran Tensions Ratchet Up Again |
- Brent settled the week at $94.39, WTI at $87.06 — Brent up 6.4% and WTI up 5.7% on the week, both touching their highest levels since late July.
- The 60-day window for a US-Iran deal expired Monday with no resolution. Trump has since threatened sanctions on Iran’s trading partners and told his envoys to stand down from talks entirely.
- The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut — a fraction of normal tanker traffic is getting through, and Iran says it won’t reopen the waterway until sanctions are lifted and ‘war reparations’ are paid.
- The oil market’s problem is increasingly not simply access to crude, but the ability to turn that crude into diesel, gasoline and other products.
- Consequently, refined fuels like diesel are driving broader inflation risks far more than crude prices alone imply..
- Bottom line: this isn’t a spike-and-fade story anymore. The standoff is structural, and energy markets are pricing that in.
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| Bitcoin: Biggest Weekly Gain in Two Years |
- Bitcoin ripped roughly 20–22% this week, closing near $77,000 after starting the week around $62,800.
- The rally lit up Wednesday, the moment Treasury yields pulled back on Bessent’s bond-buyback news — risk assets took the signal and ran.
- Momentum built further on progress toward crypto market-structure legislation (the Clarity Act).
- Bottom line: bitcoin traded this week like a high-beta bond proxy. When Washington moves on yields, crypto moves harder.
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| Canada-US Trade: Deal Collapses at the Midnight Deadline |
- Talks between Ottawa and Washington fell apart late Friday night, just minutes before a midnight deadline — triggering 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, including hockey equipment, building materials, liquor, and clothing.
- PM Mark Carney said Washington’s last-minute changes to agreed terms were ‘unfair, uneconomic,’ and called into question the reliability of any deal — and pulled Canada’s negotiators back to Ottawa.
- The US side blames Canada for walking away from terms it says were already settled. Either way, Canada has vowed to match the tariffs dollar for dollar starting Sept. 8.
- Energy, potash, and critical minerals were carved out of the new tariffs — worth watching for our uranium and rare-earth positions.
- Bottom line: this is a fresh, direct hit to cross-border trade sentiment and adds another layer of uncertainty right as bonds, gold, and oil are already repricing risk. For Canadian investors, it’s one more reason hard assets and diversification matter right now.
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| The thread connecting it all: Washington is trying to manage a debt and inflation problem with one hand, running an open-ended economic war with Iran with the other, and now reigniting a trade fight with its closest neighbour. Gold and bitcoin are pricing the debt story. Oil and bonds are pricing the Iran story. Friday’s tariff news is a direct warning for Canadian investors. Companies that depend on US exports — manufacturers, lumber producers, auto parts suppliers, agricultural exporters — are directly in the crosshairs of new 50% tariffs. |
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Portfolio Spotlight: The Aug 5 Alert Is Already Paying Off
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| Trend Letter Open Portfolio: 21 positions, 17 positive, 4 negative, 60.24% average gain |
| Two weeks ago, we sent subscribers a BUY alert on three names built for exactly this environment — a debasement trade, a uranium supply story, and a geopolitical risk hedge — plus pointed new subscribers to a rare-earths position already sitting in our long-term model portfolio. Here’s how fast it’s already working: |
| Position |
Rec. Date |
Rec. Price |
Current |
Gain |
| Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) |
08/05/26 |
$224.85 |
$297.82 |
+32.45% |
| iShares Silver Bullion (2nd position) |
08/05/26 |
$28.36 |
$31.75 |
+11.95% |
| Uranium Miners (2nd position) |
08/05/26 |
$52.26 |
$58.19 |
+11.35% |
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| We also flagged REMX (rare earths) to new subscribers that same week as a name already sitting in our long-term model portfolio. Since Aug 5, REMX has moved from $72.46 to $80.75 — a gain of +11.44% in the same two weeks. |
| Two weeks. Four names. Double-digit gains across the board — and gold’s biggest single mover, AEM, is already up over 32%. |
| This is exactly the kind of setup we build the Trend Letter portfolio around: when the macro backdrop turns — debt worries pushing gold, geopolitical risk pushing uranium and hard assets — we want you positioned before the move, not chasing it afterward. |
| And it’s not an isolated win. The full open portfolio is averaging a 60.24% gain across 21 active positions, with standouts like VanEck Junior Miners (+274%) and ProShares Ultra Long Gold (+176%) showing what staying with a multi-year thesis can do. |
| If you’re not already a Trend Letter subscriber, this is the kind of call you’re missing. |
| Subscribe for only $399.95 |
Talk soon,
Martin |
| Note: performance shown reflects Trend Letter model portfolio tracking as of Aug 22, 2026, and is not indicative of individual subscriber results. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. |
