Month-end close update for S&P 500, US dollar, gold, & oil

S&P 500

As we can see on the following chart, on Monday we hit 2779.60, pretty much bang on the outside target of 2800 for Near-term resistance that we highlighted in our February 20th blog.   Today, we closed the month at 2713, just above what was previous resistance at 2696. If we hit the 2700 level support, we should see a bounce up to the 2740-2760 range.

Immediate Resistance = 2760
Near-term Resistance = 2780
Key Resistance = 2873
Immediate Support =2696
150-DMA = 2600
Near-term Support = 2535
Key Support = 2470

spx0228

The 2740-2760 resistance is the key short-term. If it holds and the S&P drops through 2696, we could be heading for a test of the 150-DMA at 2600, and potentially a correction down to 2470. If the 2740-2760 resistance does not hold, then we should test the recent 2780 high, and potentially the January 26th all-time high at 2873.

US dollar

In early February we told subscribers to The Trend Letter to be ready for a rally in the $US. Today, the $US just pushed through Near-term resistance.

usd0228

Gold

A strong $US is taking its toll on gold and silver. watch support at 1307.

gold0228

Oil

Oil was hit by the stronger $US and with the EIA report today showing there was a build of 3.0Mb on the week. Large Speculators continue to buy every dip, while Commercials (producers) are sellers. If we get a break break below 59.00, then 57.00, we should see margin calls, and that would cause a rapid decline short-term. It would also set up a great buying opportunity.

oil0228

Stay tuned!

Headlines – February 28/18

  • Wall St opens higher on lower than expected GDP. Read story
  • Treasury yields rise as traders view Powell remarks through hawkish lens. Read story
  • May: UK cannot agree the EU Brexit draft. Read story
  • Ghana teacher teaching how computers work – without computers. Read story
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods to stop selling assault rifles. Read story
  • Amazon just paid $1 billion for door bell rejected by ‘Shark Tank’ judges. Read story
  • Warren Buffet doesn’t beat the market anymore. Read story
  • ‘China’s Netflix’ to list on US stock market. Read story
  • Amazon Alexa’s head AI researcher has left for Google. Read story
  • Steve Wozniak had $70,000 in bitcoin stolen after falling for a simple, yet perfect, scam. Read story
  • People in Sweden now at risk at losing access to cash. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Stay tuned!

Acceptance and Volatility – are they related?

Governments and institutions all over the globe are increasingly paying attention to Crypto Currencies (CC’s) and the technology that underpins them all – Blockchain.  Some of the attention is negative, but on balance, it is clear that more and more of the attention is positive, supportive, and exploitive.  As the business and investment world becomes more aware of having a disruptive force in its midst, it becomes imperative to examine business processes in this new frontier and compare them to the relatively old, slow, and expensive processes they have now.  New technologies need new investment capital to grow, and with such growth comes spurts, false starts, and controversy.

Developments in the world of CC’s and Blockchain are coming along fast and furious as governments and institutions make efforts to harness the technology, tax all profits, protect their investments, and protect their constituents and customers – – a complex balancing act that goes a long way in explaining why many seem to be going in different directions, and changing directions frequently.  Here are a few of the latest developments that serve to illustrate that CC’s and Blockchain are gradually being accepted into the mainstream, but still grappling with regulation, control, and stability:

  • Uzbekistan will publish its plans to regulate Bitcoin in September 2018, with a Blockchain “skill center” set to begin operation in July.
  • Kazakhstan has signaled its desire to copy Singapore’s Blockchain permissiveness.
  • Belarus has announced it wishes to create a hospitable environment for Blockchain, as an innovative financial transactions technology.
  • Venezuela has created the “PETRO”, a CC created to raise cash as Venezuela approaches economic collapse.  The hope is that it will be a way around sanctions that prevent Venezuela from raising money in the global bond markets.  President Nicolas Maduro claims that the PETRO raised $735 million on its first day, a claim that has not been substantiated.  Maduro sees the PETRO as “the perfect kryptonite to defeat SUPERMAN” – his analogy of the US imposed sanctions, thinking that this currency frees his country from the grip of banks and governments.  Perhaps he does not see that the PETRO was initiated by a government – his.
  • TD Canada Trust has become the first Canadian bank to join with some UK and US banks in banning the use of credit cards to purchase CC’s.
  • South Korea is heading towards legalizing Bitcoin, indicating that it will be considering Bitcoin as a liquid asset.  Being that South Korea is at the forefront of the CC marketplace, the impact of their decisions will be significant and global.  Japan has already taken those steps, making Bitcoin trades more transparent, more regulated, and 100% legal.
  • BlackRock, the world’s largest investment company, continues its bullish forecast for CC’s, saying it sees “wider use” in the future.
  • Romeo Lacher, chairman of Switzerland’s stock exchange, believes there are a lot of upsides to releasing a crypto version of the Swiss franc, and his organization would be supportive, adding that he “doesn’t like cash.”
  • China’s largest online and brick and mortar retailer JD.com has announced the first four startups for its Al Catapult Blockchain incubation program. The Beijing-based program, which has seen candidates from as far afield as Australia and the UK, aims to use the company’s vast Chinese infrastructure to develop new Blockchain and artificial intelligence applications.

With all of the global to and fro activity, it is clear that Blockchain is the disruptive technology of this era, and CC’s are just a facet of the possibilities enabled.  Just like the Internet investment explosion of the 90’s, Blockchain and CC’s investments will have winners and losers, however, we do not want this to turn into the huge bubble that burst destructively with many early DOT COM investments in the 90’s.  What we do want to see is a well reasoned approach to Blockchain developments and investments. Crypto Trend will serve as your guide in this young market space, providing well reasoned recommendations and appropriate cautions.

Volatility will continue to be the norm in this market space for some time, as we see increasing acceptance, innovation, and regulation.  Failures will happen and successes will emerge, driving governments, institutions, investors, and innovators, to continually adjust their processes and their thinking.  Volatility is normal and healthy at this stage.

Trend Disruptors Premium

If you are ready to make a speculative investment into these disruptive technologies and want to receive all current and future recommendations from Trend Disruptors Premium, we are keeping our Early Bird Special offer to give our readers the opportunity to get started at a $175 discount, meaning you pay only $525.00. To take advantage of this special offer, click here

Stay tuned!

 

Headlines – February 23/18

  • Wall St rises as investors wait further Fed guidance. Read story
  • Head of world’s largest hedge fund says US in a ‘pre-bubble phase’ with a 70% chance of recession. Read story
  • Florida shooting: Armed officer stood outside school and did not intervene as 17 killed. Read story
  • China seizes control of Anbang Insurance as chairman prosecuted. Read story
  • US to impose ‘largest’ North Korea sanctions. Read story
  • Canada’s Trudeau spurs criticism, raises eyebrows on India trip. Read story
  • Two top White House advisers may leave over tensions with Trump. Read story
  • New York’s Waldorf Astoria is now controlled by Chinese government. Read story
  • BMW electric powered Minis will be built in China. Read story
  • Kylie Jenner sends Snapchat stock falling with a single tweet. Read story
  • Chance of halting Brexit now 50:50, say leading campaigner. Read story
  • Macron proposes controversial crackdown on migrants in France. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Stay tuned!

Headlines – February 22/18

  • Wall St opens higher as tech stocks rise. Read story
  • US jobless claims drop to 45-year low. Read story
  • 1 in 5 Americans have more credit card debt than savings. Read story
  • Ford’s head of US operations is leaving over ‘inappropriate behaviour.’ Read story
  • Trump: Armed teachers could stop attacks. Read story
  • Parkland student: CNN gave me ‘scripted’ question on guns. Read story
  • Veteran of $22 billion bond fund spots the ‘No.1 opportunity.’ Read story
  • Iran may withdraw from nuclear deal if banks continue to stay away. Read story
  • North Korea is sending suspected mastermind of deadly attacks on South to the Olympics. Read story
  • Trudeau ridiculed for his ‘fake, tacky, and annoying’ wardrobe of traditional Indian outfits. Read story
  • December no longer peak shopping season? Canadian retail sales slip for the month. Read story
  • More UK KFC outlets open as chicken chaos eases. Read story
  • A Bulgarian scheme scammed Spotify for $1 million – without breaking a single law. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Stay tuned!

Important update for S&P 500

Last Wednesday morning, at the market open, we posted the following targets (note the weekly was updated later in the day).

Near-term Resistance = 2697 (weekly target of 2740)
Key Resistance = 2873
Immediate Support = 2585 (Note: this is the 150-DMA)
Near-term Support = 2535
Key Support = 2473

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed at 2696, a mere single point off our target of 2697. The weekly close was 2732, just 8 pts below our target of 2740. The market has followed our targets precisely, so we are looking for this pattern to continue. Here are the targets for the next week:

Near-term Resistance = 2770 (outside target of 2800)
Key Resistance = 2873
Immediate Support = 2589 (Note: this is the 150-DMA)
Near-term Support = 2535
Key Support = 2470

Watch for weakness and a break below 2700, 2650, and an initial test of the 150-DMA at 2589. We should see temporary support at 2535, but the key target low here is now 2470. Only a break above 2740, then 2770 would suggest that the pull back is over for now and a test of the January 26th high is in order.

Stay tuned!

Can government really shut down crypto currencies?

Crypto Currencies (CC’s) are making inroads into the daily lives of more and more people every week.  While China has taken a contrarian stance, trying to curtail Crypto Coin marketplaces, most other countries are finding ways to embrace this market or at least consider positive ways to deal with it.  Clearly, most governments around the world do NOT want to miss out on the CC market as a rich source of revenue, so it is surprising that China has chosen to head in an authoritarian direction, perhaps believing that strict controls and prohibitions will be better for them.  History has taught us that prohibition does not work, especially when it provides the masses with something they really want – wine, beer, & spirits are still with us – under reasonable control worldwide.

Here is some of the latest evidence that CC’s are rapidly heading towards mainstream status in the investments marketplace:

  • Many Daily News shows now include a market recap segment with a full screen on Crypto Currencies, typically right after the Commodities recap screen.
  • Arizona, Wyoming, and Colorado are preparing to accept CC’s for tax payments.
  • In January, KFC Canada launched a limited time offer of the “Bitcoin Bucket” of chicken – the first major restaurant organization to utilize CC’s.
  • Two entrepreneurs in the UK have sold 50 new luxury apartments in Dubai for Bitcoin.
  • The Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) has proposed a new blockchain based system of clearing and settling the purchase and sale of securities, aiming to provide real-time clearing and settlement, with low costs and fewer errors, compared to conventional services.
  • Ripple has an agreement with the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) to support cross-border payment technology with banks in Saudi Arabia, to enable instant settlement of cross-border transactions, lowering barriers to trade and commerce.
  • Western Union is testing transactions with the use of RIPPLE’s (XRP) blockchain based settlement system, anticipating faster, cheaper, and more accurate money transfers.

Of course there are some who fear the integration of traditional fiat currency systems with the newly minted virtual currency systems.  One of those is Augustin Carstens, general manager of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) who believes that Bitcoin is a bubble, a Ponzi scheme, a speculative mania, and an environmental disaster.  He also believes that CC’s are used a lot for money laundering and other criminal activities. He therefore is recommending strict regulation by all Central Banks, as CC integration could threaten the stability of financial institutions.

We see that we still have a “wild west” range of opinions and views about the CC market space, but we note that there is more and more evidence that the mainstream media and governments at all levels are acknowledging CC’s as a significant part of the financial landscape, a part that cannot be ignored or stifled.  We see the trend is toward having CC’s and Blockchain technology company stocks in a well balanced, forward looking investment strategy.

Investing in Blockchain & other new technologies

Even with all the wild swings in the crypto space, our Crypto Trend Premium portfolio is still up an average of 30.82% at the time of this writing. As the sector goes through its growing pains of weeding out the weaker players, just like in the internet boom, most of the of these players will fall by the way side, but in the end some real winners will emerge.

While there is a great deal of volatility in the crypto space, as an investor, you need to understand that the underlying blockchain technology is a disruptive technology that will impact a great many sectors.  As highlighted in our February 3rd blog, there are currently over 36 industries that are heavily investing in blockchain technology today.

Remember, disruption doesn’t happen overnight. Blockchain technology is still in its infancy, and a lot of the actual technology has yet to be perfected. Blockchain technology will supplement traditional industries, making them more efficient. We are certain that blockchain will transform the banking industry.

As investors, we believe that as blockchain, 5G, and other new disruptive technologies mature, solid long-term gains will be realized for those who are bold enough to be early participants.  We have evaluated dozens of blockchain and new tech companies and have a short-list that we are ready to pull the trigger on as soon as we see more stability in the general markets.

Thanks to the very timely warnings of both The Trend Letter and Trend Technical Trader for a global equity market pullback and/or correction, we have held off issuing any new recommendations until we get a BUY Signal for the general market, which could come anytime in the next few weeks.

If you are ready to make a speculative investment into these disruptive technologies and want to receive all current and future recommendations from Crypto TREND Premium, we are keeping our Early Bird Special offer to give our readers the opportunity to get started at a $175 discount, meaning you pay only $525.00. To take advantage of this special offer, click here

Stay tuned!

Headlines – February 16/18

  • Stocks flirt with 6-day rally; Nasdaq set for best week since 2011. Read story
  • Oil output cuts and electric car influx could hit Russia economy: central bank. Read story
  • Ninth grader arrested after threatening “Round 2 of Florida.” Read story
  • US rejects China-led bid for Chicago Stock Exchange. Read story
  • Bitcoin retesting the $10,000 level – why it’s so important. Read story
  • US housing starts soar in January, building permits hit 10.5-year high. Read story
  • Why Warren Buffet is a ‘prime example’ of the failure of American capitalism. Read story
  • Proposal for universal pay: tax high tech. Read story
  • Peter Thiel: ‘Silicon Valley is a one-party state.’ Read story
  • Intel says 32 lawsuit filed against company over security flaws. Read story
  • Bitcoin energy use in Ireland set to overtake homes, says local firm. Read story
  • Everything you need to know about the $1.8 billion PNB-Nirav Modi fraud. Read story
  • Amazon’s push into fashion retail should scare these companies the most. Read story
  • Russia is taking over Syria’s oil and gas. Read story
  • Romney to run for senate in Utah. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Stay tuned!

Headlines – February 15/18

  • 17 killed in mass shooting at Florida high school. Read story
  • Football coach ‘died a hero’ shielding students from gunman. Read story
  • Wall St opens higher as inflation fears ebb. Read story
  • Brace for another nose-dive for stocks – and welcome it. Read story
  • Billionaire Charlie Munger says ‘bitcoin is noxious poison.’ Read story
  • The number of crypto hedge funds soars amid bitcoin volatility. Read story
  • Buffet adds Apple, dumps IBM. Read story
  • The billionaire who allegedly swindled $1.8 billion from an Indian bank. Read story
  • Bombardier reports 57% rise in profits. Read story
  • McDonald’s plays ‘hide the cheeseburger’ in new Happy Meal health push. Read story
  • Hyperinflation meets tech: Cash-scarce Venezuela sees boom in payment apps. Read story
  • China demands clampdown on ‘vulgar’ quiz apps. Read story
  • Hedge fund Bridgewater makes $22 billion bet against European firms. Read story
  • FDA approves first blood test to detect concussions. Read story
  • Philosophers are building ethical algorithms to help control self-driving cars. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Stay tuned!

Headlines – February 14/18

  • Wall St reverses course to trade higher. Read story
  • Consumer prices jump more than forecast, sparking inflation fears. Read story
  • OPEC will be forced to play ‘second fiddle’ to the US in 2018. Read story
  • More fund managers now see danger ahead for the economy than at any time in the last decade. Read story
  • Trump lawyer admits paying porn star. Read story
  • Advertisers tuning out TV in sign of trouble for media companies. Read story
  • How a volatility investor made 6,000% while everyone else lost $2 billion. Read story
  • Credit Suisse CEO defends enabling volatility bets with XIV: ‘It worked well…until it didn’t’. Read story
  • Canadian Securities exchange launching blockchain-based clearing house challenging TMX. Read story
  • An Indian bank just uncovered $1.7 billion fraud at a single branch. Read story
  • Wall-Mart goes to cloud to close gap with Amazon. Read story
  • SA’s Zuma: ‘I’ve done nothing wrong’, sees no reason to step down. Read story
  • Photographer captures an impossible photo of a single atom. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Stay tuned!