Trend Letter Blog

Is this the market top?

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S&P 500 — Is the Rally Over? June 11, 2026

The S&P 500 has hit some turbulence after a remarkable run. Here’s what’s happening and what to watch for.

The backstory in plain English

From early April through late May, the S&P 500 climbed in one of the cleanest, most consistent rallies of the year — rising from around 6,400 all the way to 7,600. Every pullback found buyers, and the market marched steadily higher along a rising trendline.

That trendline broke on June 3rd. When a trendline that clean breaks, it matters.

What has happened since

The S&P has now dropped from its highs near 7,600 down to 7,289 — a decline of roughly 4%. That may not sound dramatic, but it’s how it’s falling that concerns us technically:

  • The market broke below 7,337 — a key support level it had respected for weeks
  • That level is now acting as resistance — meaning the market has to fight to get back above it
  • We’ve seen a lower low — the latest drop went below the previous pullback low, a classic early warning sign

The three stages we are watching for a market top

  1. Stage 1 ✅ — Market pierces a previous low then bounces. Warning shot — roughly 60% probability of a top
  2. Stage 2 ✅ — Market closes below that low on a daily basis. Stronger signal — probability rises to ~70%
  3. Stage 3 ⏳ — Market bounces, but the bounce fails below the previous high, creating a lower high — then rolls over again. This would push probability to 75-80%

We have two of three stages complete. Stage 3 is setting up right now.

What to watch this week

The market is bouncing Thursday morning — that’s normal and expected. The critical question is: does this bounce run out of steam below 7,600? If it does, and the market rolls over again, that lower high completes the pattern and significantly raises the odds that the April-to-June rally is over for now.

We are not chasing this bounce. We’re watching where it stops.

What this means for our subscribers

No changes for now. But we could add an insurance play soon.

Stay tuned!

Martin

As always, this is not financial advice. Markets can and do surprise — these are probabilities, not certainties.

SpaceX Goes Public Friday — and Why Investors Should Pay Attention

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A historic debut that could reveal where markets are really headed

June 9, 2026

This Friday, June 12, SpaceX is expected to begin trading on the Nasdaq — in what could be the largest IPO in market history. Trading under the ticker SPCX, the company has set its offering price at $135 per share, which could raise roughly $75 billion and value SpaceX at about $1.77 trillion.

That would instantly make SpaceX one of the most valuable companies in America, behind only a handful of giants like Nvidia and Apple.

For investors, it’s a rare opportunity. SpaceX isn’t just a rocket company. It owns Starlink, one of the world’s largest satellite internet networks, and is rapidly expanding into artificial intelligence infrastructure through its merger with xAI.

The excitement is understandable.

But investors should also understand what they’re buying.

A Great Company Doesn’t Always Mean a Great Stock

There is little debate that SpaceX has changed the aerospace industry. The company dominates US rocket launches, and Starlink now serves millions of customers worldwide.

The question is whether the stock price already assumes years of future success.

In 2025, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue, up 33% from the previous year. However, the company also reported a $4.9 billion loss as it poured money into AI infrastructure and data centers. That’s not unusual for a company investing heavily in its future — but it does mean profits are still years away.

Much of today’s valuation is based on expectations that these investments will eventually generate enormous profits. That may happen — but investors should recognize that a large portion of the company’s value is tied to future growth rather than current earnings.

Why the Timing Matters

This IPO isn’t just about one company.

Large IPOs often attract billions of dollars that might otherwise be invested elsewhere in the market. With such a massive deal coming to market, some investors believe it may be helping support stocks this week as banks and institutions work to ensure a successful launch.

Once the IPO is complete, that support could disappear.

That’s one reason many market watchers will be paying close attention to what happens after Friday.

Three Things to Watch

1. Can SpaceX Hold Its Gains?

Many IPOs surge on their first day before cooling off.

If SpaceX opens strong but struggles to hold those gains despite enormous excitement, it could suggest investors are becoming more cautious about high-growth, high-valuation companies.

2. What Happens to the Broader Market?

The S&P 500 has been trading near record highs.

If major indexes weaken after the IPO is completed, it may indicate that investor enthusiasm is beginning to fade or that money is rotating out of riskier assets.

3. What It Means for AI Stocks

SpaceX is increasingly being valued as an AI infrastructure company.

Other highly anticipated AI-related IPOs are watching closely. A strong debut could boost confidence across the sector. A disappointing performance could make investors more selective about companies with high growth but limited profits.

The Bottom Line

SpaceX may be one of the most important IPOs of this decade.

The company has extraordinary businesses, ambitious growth plans, and one of the strongest brands in the world.

But investors should remember that even great companies can become overpriced when excitement runs too far ahead of fundamentals.

Friday’s debut will tell us a lot — not just about SpaceX, but about investor appetite for risk, AI, and the next generation of growth stocks.

The rockets are real. The question is whether the price is.

This is not financial advice. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only.

Gold: Consolidating After an Extraordinary Run

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Gold put in an exceptional run from mid-2025 through early 2026, rallying from roughly $2,900 to a peak near $5,425 — the level marked as major resistance on the chart. That peak formed a swing high that has now defined the top of a descending channel (the orange parallel lines). Since that top, price has been grinding lower and tightening, oscillating inside this channel with lower highs and lower lows on a weekly basis.

Key levels to watch:

$5,425 — the all-time high and ceiling. A weekly close above it changes everything to the upside.

$4,885 — mid-channel resistance. Gold has been struggling to reclaim it convincingly; it acts as the pivot between a “healthy pullback” narrative and something more concerning.

$4,380 — the most important near-term level. It has acted as support multiple times and the channel’s lower bound is now approaching it. Current price (~$4,334) sitting just below it is a mild short-term bearish signal.

$3,931 — major structural support. This is the level that would need to fail for the long-term bull thesis to be seriously questioned.

50-DMA (~$4,248) and 100-DMA (~$3,545) — both rising steeply and well below current price, confirming the long-term uptrend remains intact. The 50-DMA is close enough to act as dynamic support if the channel breaks down further.

Bottom line: Gold’s long-term structure remains bullish — the moving averages are rising, the baseline is higher, and the 2025 trend was extraordinary. But the near-term picture is consolidation within a descending channel, with price sitting just below the key $4,380 level. The bear case requires a breakdown toward $3,931; the bull case requires a reclaim of $4,380 followed by a push through $4,885. Until one of those resolves, gold is a range trade. If things get particularly challenged and price does work its way down toward the 100-DMA (~$3,545), that should represent an excellent longer-term buying opportunity — the moving average is rising steeply and would likely be met with significant demand from investors who missed the original move.

Stay alert!

Market Pulse: Oil Update

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WTI Crude Oil: What’s Driving Prices Right Now?

The crude oil market is going through a major shift. After a powerful rally earlier this year that sent prices soaring, oil has entered a volatile period. Prices are currently falling as big changes develop behind the scenes in global politics.

For everyday investors, understanding this backdrop is key to navigating energy investments right now.

The Technical Picture: Tracking the Price Action

  • The Big Picture: Earlier this year, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil surged from a stable baseline of $70.00 all the way up to a peak near $119.89 per barrel.
  • The Recent Move: After that massive spike, the price began to stabilize into a ‘wedge’ shape on the chart—meaning the gap between the highs and the lows was getting smaller. However, just this week, oil broke out of that pattern to the downside.
  • Where It Stands Now: Oil fell every day this week, dropping from $104.00 down to $87.75. It is now sitting just below a key technical floor of $88.74. If it can’t climb back above this line, prices could easily slide further toward the $79.00 mark.

The Catalyst: Rumors of a 60-Day Deal

So, what caused oil to suddenly drop 15% in a week? The market is reacting to rumors of a temporary 60-day diplomatic agreement that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global shipping chokepoint that has recently been restricted.

If this deal becomes official, we expect a two-stage reaction:

  1. The Initial Drop: The immediate relief in the market will likely push prices down into the low $80s.
  2. The Supply Effect: If the Strait safely opens and Iranian oil barrels begin flowing back into the global economy, that added supply could push prices down into the mid-to-low $70s.

Why Oil Won’t Completely Crash

While prices are falling, investors shouldn’t expect oil to crash back to old, cheap, pre-conflict levels. The fundamental ‘safety net’ for oil has shifted higher for two reasons:

  • A Permanent Lesson: This year proved that shipping straits and pipelines are powerful economic weapons. Because traders now recognize this permanent risk, a certain amount of ‘risk premium’ is permanently baked into the price.
  • Restocking the Shelves: Many countries have severely depleted their strategic oil reserves. If oil drops into the $70 range, these governments will likely step in to buy and restock, creating a natural floor under the price. Because of this, we view a $75.00–$80.00 range as a highly likely long-term baseline.

Important Risks & Caveats to Keep in Mind

Investing is never a certainty. While the plan above outlines our main thesis, investors should closely watch these variables:

  • It’s Still a Rumor: The 60-day deal is not official yet. There are still conflicting statements in the news, and major governments (like the U.S. White House) have previously dismissed similar reports. If the deal falls through, prices could reverse and spike higher rapidly.
  • Supply Takes Time: Even if a deal is signed tomorrow, oil won’t flood the market instantly. Clearing underwater mines, sorting out shipping logistics, and clearing backlogs takes weeks. The price drop might be gradual rather than a sudden crash.
  • The Big Picture Matters: While this diplomatic deal is the main headline, oil prices are always influenced by traditional economic factors. Global demand, decisions by the OPEC+ oil cartel to cut or raise production, and domestic US oil production also play massive roles in where the price goes next.

What We Are Doing About It

Because the charts show a breakdown and a potential deal is on the horizon, we have officially issued an Alert to subscribers to book profits and downsize our oil stock positions. Taking money off the table now protects our capital while we wait to see if this 60-day deal becomes reality.

Keep your head up!

Martin

 

Oil Drops, Stocks Soar — Defying the Headlines

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It has been a wild 12 days. Peace talks have dissolved, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shuttered, and the US has moved from rhetoric to an active naval blockade of Iranian ports. By every traditional rulebook, oil should be moonshotting—yet prices are sliding while the stock market rallies. Today, we look at why the ‘fear trade’ is being replaced by ‘demand destruction’ reality.

First, let’s look at oil. We have been highlighting how oil has traded inside a parallel uptrend channel. Today oil fell out of that uptrend channel. The 93.00 was the key level we have been highlighting in videos and in updates to subscribers.  The next key levels are the green horizontal lines at 81.00 and75.00.

Oil Prices Explained Simply

Oil prices are like an auction: they rise when buyers expect a big shortage and fall when the market sees less demand or believes the shortage won’t last forever. Right now, even with serious supply problems from the Middle East conflict and the US blockade targeting Iranian oil flows, demand destruction is winning.

Why Prices Are Sliding Despite the Blockade

  1. High Prices are Crushing Demand (Especially Asia)

When oil surged past $110 per barrel, it hit a ‘pain threshold’ for the world’s biggest buyers. Refineries in China and India have slashed production by nearly 6 million barrels per day this month because they simply cannot afford the feedstock. This is Demand Destruction in its purest form—high costs have forced factories and shippers to blink, reducing global need for crude faster than the blockade can choke it off.

  1. The ‘Leaky’ Blockade & Strategic Reserves

While the headlines focus on a ‘total blockade,’ the market is looking at the plumbing. Much of the non-Iranian oil from Saudi Arabia and the UAE is being rerouted through pipelines to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait. Furthermore, the coordinated release of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) by the US and its allies is acting as a massive psychological lid on the market.

  1. The ‘Coiled Spring’ in Storage

Because tankers are struggling to clear the Persian Gulf, oil is backing up into a massive ‘supply overhang.’ Estimates suggest 100–120 million barrels are currently stranded in floating storage or onshore tanks. Traders view this as a coiled spring: the moment the Strait reopens—even partially—that ‘wall of oil’ will flood the market and collapse prices. Many are selling now to get ahead of that inevitable move.

  1. Exhaustion and the ‘Sell the News’ Effect

From a technical perspective, the market had already ‘priced in’ the blockade weeks ago. The massive spike to $100+ was fueled by anticipation and fear. Once the blockade actually commenced on Monday and didn’t immediately trigger a wider war, the upward momentum was exhausted. With no new ‘shocks’ left to buy, the only path of least resistance for the ‘smart money’ was to take profits and move to the sidelines.

Final Thought on Oil

The markets don’t just react to what is happening now; they react to what is likely to happen next. Right now, the chart is telling us that sky-high prices have triggered a self-correcting mechanism. While the geopolitical risk remains high, the ‘Price over Prejudice’ reality is that buyers are stepping away.

Watch the $92 support level. If oil breaks and holds below that mark, it’s a clear signal that the market has moved on from supply fears and is now pricing in a global economic slowdown. Always watch the IEA (International Energy Agency) data for the hard numbers, as they often tell a very different story than the 24-hour news cycle.

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From Crisis to Catalyst: Why the Strait of Hormuz Blockade Triggered a Stock Market Surge

To understand where we are, we first have to look at the sheer velocity of the last two weeks. Since the end of March, the S&P 500 has staged a relentless 10.31% vertical launch. Driven by a sharp drop in oil and a ‘sell the news’ reaction to geopolitical tensions, we’ve moved over 650 points in just 12 trading days. This is a massive ‘impulse move’ that has caught most bears off guard. While we called for this rally, we expected it to cool off near 6,800.

The Immediate Potential Ceiling

However, as we zoom in on the recent price action, we see the market is running head-first into a major battleground. We have identified a critical Horizontal Resistance at 7,007 (the red dashed line)—a level that capped the market back in February. Just above that sits the Upper Range of our trend channel. While the momentum is high, our models suggest we are entering a ‘Zone of Exhaustion’ where the 12-day rally potentially meets its match (see white projection line).

The 6-Year Structural Channel

To see why we are so focused on these levels, we have to look at the ‘Big Map.’ This parallel channel isn’t just a recent fluke; it has been the primary container for the S&P 500 for over six years, dating back to the 2020 Covid lows.

Note how precisely the market has respected these boundaries—from the ‘Liberation Day’ bounce off the bottom to the multiple rejections at the top. We are currently testing the absolute ceiling of this multi-year structural move. Historically, the ‘Price’ honors this channel regardless of the ‘Prejudice’ of the headlines. Until we see a confirmed breakout and back-test of this orange line, the risk-to-reward ratio for new longs remains heavily skewed to the downside.

Bottom Line for Investors

The 12-day rally has been a gift, but we are now at the upper limit of a 6-year structural wall. Discipline is the word of the day. Watch the 7,007 – 7,160 range and the $75 – $81.00 oil target—if oil finds a footing while stocks are at this ceiling, the ‘Great Decoupling’ may come to a very sudden end.

Keep your head up!

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Market Pulse: The S&P 500’s Buy-the-Dip Rally: Silver Surges, While NVIDIA Faces Headwinds

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Strong US Stock Rebound: All three major US stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, & Nasdaq) saw their best weekly performance since June, recovering from a mid-month slump.

The last few weeks have been a masterclass in market volatility, but a dramatic shift in sentiment has pulled the S&P 500 index back from the brink. After a sharp pullback from its late October high (which took the index down through its 50-Day Moving Average (DMA) and briefly tested the 100-DMA), the market has staged a solid rally.

The burning question for every investor: Why the sudden turnaround, and can it last?

The Anatomy of the V-Shaped Rebound

This latest bounce is a classic example of the “Buy the Dip” (BTD) mentality that has defined the current prolonged uptrend. When dips are quickly bought up, it signals confidence that any sell-off is temporary.

  1. Technical Support Held: The 100-DMA proved to be the critical line in the sand. When the S&P 500 broke below the 50-DMA and dropped to this next major support level, buyers stepped in, preventing a larger technical breakdown.

  2. Fed Rate Cut Hopes: The single biggest catalyst is the dramatic shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve. Just two weeks ago, the odds of a rate cut at the December 10th meeting were around 40%. They have now surged to an overwhelming 87%, injecting massive optimism and liquidity back into risk assets.

  3. The Political ‘Dovish’ Factor: Speculation that Trump will replace current Fed Chair Powell with someone more “Dovish” (more inclined to cut rates quickly) is also acting as a short-term tailwind. However, a Fed that is perceived as too political or too aggressive in cutting rates could erode confidence in its inflation fight, leading to future volatility.

December’s Double Tailwind: Rally & Retracement Risks

The market is now entering a historically favourable period known as the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ (late November through January). This seasonal strength is powered by:

  • Fund Positioning: Large index-tracking funds repositioning capital into equities for year-end performance.

  • Short Covering: Traders who bet against the market are forced to buy back shares to close their positions, which amplifies the upward momentum.

BUT, we cannot ignore the near-term technical levels and upcoming economic data.

We are Technical Analysts, and for us, the charts always tell the true story. The S&P 500 is currently trading around 6850, just shy of a key resistance level.

  • The Critical Resistance: 6860: The index must decisively break and hold above 6860 to confirm this rally has conviction and is heading toward the all-time high of 6925.

  • The Warning  Line: 6570: If the market fails to break 6860 and falls back below the recent 100-DMA support level of 6570, it would signal the “Buy the Dip” mantra has temporarily failed. This could trigger the start of a much deeper, 10% correction, sending the index toward 6150.

Finally, investors must keep a close eye on next week’s Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report—the Fed’s favorite inflation metric. A hotter-than-expected PCE print could quickly reduce the odds of that December rate cut and put immediate pressure on growth stocks.

Our Take: The seasonal tailwinds and rate-cut optimism are strong, making a run at the all-time high of 6925 probable. However, if the S&P 500 stalls at 6860, the market could swiftly revert to a bearish trend. Stay disciplined and watch those key levels!

NVIDIA’s Pullback: Why the AI King is Losing Steam

Despite reporting genuinely huge earnings with revenue up 65% year-over-year (YoY), NVIDIA’s stock has faced significant pressure and is down 20% from its high at the start of November.

Markets are getting nervous about the company’s lofty valuations and the sustainability of its growth. Here is a breakdown of the key factors driving the recent sell-off:

Valuation and Size Concerns

  • Higher Than Nations: Just a few weeks ago, NVIDIA’s market capitalization reached an astonishing $5 trillion on October 25th.

  • To put that size into perspective, that single company valuation was higher than the entire GDP of Germany ($4.8 trillion} and Japan ($4.1 trillion} at the time. At these astronomical levels, the markets are scrutinizing every metric, and the sheer valuation is triggering caution among investors.

The Circular Financing Loop

A major concern centers on the quality of NVIDIA’s revenue. There is growing scrutiny over ‘circular financing’  in the AI ecosystem:

  • NVIDIA invests capital into its key AI customers (e.g., OpenAI, CoreWeave, XAI, and others).

  • Those customers then use that capital—often supplemented by debt or venture funding—to buy more NVIDIA chips and infrastructure.

  • This cycle potentially inflates NVIDIA’s reported revenue without corresponding true organic demand coming from end-users, creating a question mark over future sustainability.

The Looming Threat of Competition

Another significant hit to investor sentiment is the rising specter of competition, particularly from major tech players:

  • Competitors like Google and other hyperscalers are rapidly investing in developing their own custom-built AI chips (TPUs and custom accelerators) to reduce their reliance on NVIDIA. This trend could erode NVIDIA’s dominance in the critical data center market over the next few years.

The Bottom Line: The market is now becoming increasingly nervous about sustaining these incredibly high valuations and expectations for continued hyper-growth. While NVIDIA remains a leader, the convergence of competition risk and questions about organic revenue quality is causing a significant rotation out of the stock.

Silver has arguably been the most dramatic performer in the market this week, achieving an incredible milestone and reinforcing its position as a structural bull market.

Here is the narrative behind the white metal’s record-breaking week:

 

Silver prices soared past previous multi-decade highs, setting a new all-time nominal high by trading above $56 per ounce (the spot price reached as high as $56.67 at the close of the week).

This dramatic surge makes silver the clear leader in the precious metals space, having nearly doubled (up 95%) since the start of the year.

This rally is not purely speculative; it is underpinned by a severe and persistent physical supply deficit, now in its fifth consecutive year.

  • Industrial Demand: Robust and structural demand from the Green Energy Transition (especially solar panels, which are massive consumers of silver) and electronics is consistently outstripping supply.

  • Supply Constraints: Approximately 70% of silver production is a byproduct of mining other metals (like copper, lead, and zinc). This means higher silver prices do not easily incentivize a ramp-up in silver mine production, keeping the market fundamentally tight.

  • Warehouse Dwindling: Inventories in major global trading hubs like London and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to multi-year lows, creating critical scarcity of deliverable metal.

 

The final push to the new record high was dramatically amplified by a technical disruption at the world’s largest derivatives exchange, the CME (Comex).

  • Trading Halted: A cooling system failure at a data center caused futures trading to be halted for over ten hours on Friday.

  • Physical Market Takes Over: During the blackout, price discovery was forced to shift entirely to the physical spot and over-the-counter (OTC) markets, where the severe tightness and high demand—free from the typically dampening influence of paper-based futures trading—quickly asserted itself, causing the price to surge by over 5% in a single session.

 

The foundation for silver’s strength remains: the structural deficit is ongoing, and expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve are increasing (now 87% probability). Lower interest rates generally reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver and gold.

For investors, the key takeaway is that the ‘era of abundant, low-priced silver has come to an end,’ with fundamentals now driving the price action. The rally is fundamentally supported and expected to continue for the foreseeable future.

Bitcoin’s Wild Ride: A Tale of Two Volatilities and the $90K Hurdle

Bitcoin has continued its notoriously volatile journey, reminding investors why it is still considered a high-risk asset. Since its late-October run, the price action has been a roller coaster, dropping significantly before staging a sharp rebound.

Here is a look at the key dynamics shaping Bitcoin’s outlook:

Bitcoin has recently defied the ‘digital gold’ narrative, acting more like a high-beta tech stock than a safe-haven asset.

  • Correlation with Risk: When the broader market experienced a surge in risk-on sentiment this past week (driven by hopes of Fed rate cuts), Bitcoin followed, crossing back above the $90,000 psychological level. This behavior suggests it is still trading in tandem with risk assets like the Nasdaq, rather than against them.

  • Divergence from Gold: Meanwhile, Gold and Silver have shown significant independent strength, driven by traditional safe-haven demand. This sharp divergence in performance confirms that Bitcoin has not yet earned the title of a reliable hedge during times of crisis.

The price action suggests a battle between short-term technical selling and robust long-term institutional demand.

  • Liquidation and Leverage: The recent steep drop was likely fueled by the liquidation of highly leveraged positions in the derivatives market—a common feature of sharp crypto pullbacks. This forced selling can exaggerate market moves.

  • Institutional Demand: The existence and strong inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US continue to provide a floor for the asset. This structural institutional demand is a critical long-term tailwind, suggesting that while volatility remains high, there is a consistent flow of capital supporting the asset.

  • The $90,000 Hurdle: The move back over $90,000 is a positive sign for short-term momentum. However, we  will be watching to see if Bitcoin can consolidate and hold this level, suggesting that the worst of the sell-off (which dipped below $85,000) may be over.

Going Forward: What to Watch

  1. Macroeconomic Environment: If the Fed signals an earlier-than-expected rate cut, it will likely benefit Bitcoin by increasing risk appetite. Conversely, a delay or hotter-than-expected inflation data (like the upcoming PCE report) could pressure it.

  2. Regulatory Certainty: Continued clarity from regulators, particularly around corporate accounting standards and ETF approvals in new jurisdictions, will drive sustained institutional adoption.

The Verdict: While the volatility is a reminder of Bitcoin’s risk profile, the institutional foundation suggests that price appreciation is likely in the long run. Investors should be prepared for sharp swings, but the current momentum indicates a path back toward the recent highs is possible if the general ‘risk-on’ environment continues.

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Volatility Returns: Stocks Sink, Gold Firms, Bitcoin Wobbles

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S&P 500

The S&P 500 closed sharply lower today, dropping 1.7% as technology shares led a broad selloff across the index. Major tech and AI-related stocks -including Tesla (-6.6%), Robinhood Markets (-8.6%), and Coinbase (-6.9%) – were among the worst performers. Meanwhile, some defensive and materials names such as Cisco Systems (+4.6%) and NIKE (+2.9%) bucked the trend, registering gains.

The S&P 500  is approaching its near-term trend line (diagonal line on chart). A breach of that level opens the door for a test of stronger support at 6535 (green horizontal line).

The main reasons for today’s S&P 500 decline were largely profit-taking after recent gains and growing market skepticism about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, which is now seen as only 50.7% probable.

This has pressured technology and growth stocks heavily, leading to a broad-based selloff across most sectors. Investors are also digesting mixed economic signals and geopolitical developments, but the focus remains on monetary policy uncertainty and valuation concerns as primary market drivers today.

Gold

Gold eased by 18.57 on the day, settling at 4,176. The metal opened stronger but retreated as a broad stock market selloff briefly pulled investors out of safe-haven positions. Even with the dip, gold remains sharply higher year-to-date, supported by ongoing economic uncertainty, fading expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, and persistent inflation pressures. Overall, gold continues to act as a key defensive asset and a proven long-term store of value in an environment shaped by heavy fiscal deficits and aggressive monetary expansion.

After forming solid support near 3,900, gold has been attempting another move higher. A retest of the recent all-time high around 4,375 (red horizontal line) would likely serve as major resistance. A decisive break and close above that level would be strongly bullish. On the downside, a failure to hold the rising trendline (green diagonal) would increase the likelihood of a pullback toward near-term support at 3,900.

Bitcoin

Earlier in 2025, Bitcoin tracked the Nasdaq closely, with their 30-day correlation reaching about 70% as both responded to shifts in global economic conditions and interest rate expectations. More recently, however, that relationship has weakened. Bitcoin now trades more than 30% below its Nasdaq-implied fair value, reflecting a shift of investor focus back toward traditional equities. It has also tended to fall more sharply on equity down days than it rises on up days.

Adding to the pressure, Bitcoin is now hovering uncomfortably close to slipping below the key psychological $100,000 level.

Stay tuned!

Up-to-date market trend analysis and financial insights from DataMine Quest’s Trend Letter for informed investment decisions.

When Governments Forget Who They Serve

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Civilizations rarely collapse in a single moment -they erode gradually, often in full view. One of the most telling signs? People leaving. Not for better weather, but for better opportunity, greater freedom, and fiscal sanity.

Time and again, excessive taxation, bloated bureaucracy, and anti-productivity policies have pushed citizens to vote with their feet. When governments punish innovation and reward dependency, they chip away at the engines of growth: entrepreneurship, self-reliance, and personal responsibility.

No state can sustainably support its people by consuming more than it creates. When incentives shift from contribution to entitlement, stagnation takes root—and resentment between the taxed and the subsidized grows.

This isn’t theory. It’s history. And the pattern is clear: when governments prioritize control over service, decline isn’t just possible—it’s inevitable. The signs are all around us. The only question is: will we listen, or repeat the cycle once again?

Cheers!

Martin

A detailed stock market heatmap illustrating sector performances, with red indicating declines across technology, consumer electronics, healthcare, financials, and more, highlighting key companies like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, and GOOGL.

Markets Slide as Political Turmoil Erodes Confidence

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Global equities tumbled Monday, driven by political instability, policy uncertainty, and rising trade tensions. Trump’s threat to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell further undermined confidence in the Fed’s independence and the broader US financial system.

The S&P 500 heatmap was a sea of red, with Netflix a rare bright spot. Major tech names led the decline: Tesla (-5.75%), Nvidia (-4.51%), Salesforce (-4.45%), and Meta (-3.51%).

A detailed stock market heatmap illustrating sector performances, with red indicating declines across technology, consumer electronics, healthcare, financials, and more, highlighting key companies like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, and GOOGL.

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

For the S&P 500, initial resistance is at 5,500 (lower red horizontal line); a break above that opens the door to 5,700 (upper red horizontal line). Support sits just under 5,000 (upper green horizontal line), with 4,800 (lower green horizontal line) as a key weekly level to watch.

Any positive trade deal headlines could spark a bounce this week, but further US–China escalation would cap upside potential. The longer uncertainty lingers, the greater the damage to the global economy, and declining business and consumer confidence is a long-term drag on equities.

For short-term traders, a dip to  5000 could trigger a bounce, but any rebound is likely capped at 5400.

SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index stock market chart showing recent downtrend and recovery signals for April 2025.

Bond Yields Rising

Yields jumped on inflation fears, declining foreign demand, and policy chaos:

  • Tariff Shock: Trump’s April 2 tariffs first triggered recession fears, then inflation worries—pushing yields higher.
  • Foreign Selling: China and Japan cut Treasury purchases, while weak auctions and hedge fund deleveraging sent the 10-year yield to 4.5% intraday (April 8). Many allies, frustrated with Trump, see little reason to back U.S. debt.
  • Economic Risk: Higher yields threaten U.S. debt servicing ($37T) and consumer borrowing, deepening financial stress.

4. Declining U.S. Treasury Yield chart showing a recent rebound and trend analysis, highlighting key market movements and investor insights for April 2025.

Flight to Safety

Gold hit a fresh all-time high at $3,422, now up 31% year-to-date, on pace for its best annual gain since 1979. Though technically overbought, it remains the go-to safe-haven. Trade war fears are driving investors, hedge funds, and central banks to unload US assets and pile into gold.

The primary retail buyers are in Asia.

Looking back to gold’s 2011 high, we see it trading within two parallel channels. The last time we saw intersecting channel, it marked a major low in late 2022 (lower white circle).

With the lines crossing again near current levels (upper white circle), this could signal a potential short-term top. A meaningful pullback from here could present a solid buying opportunity.

Bitcoin Rallies as Dollar Slides

Bitcoin posted its strongest day in weeks, fueled by a combination of macro pressures and renewed institutional interest. Confidence in traditional assets took a hit as Trump’s attacks on the Federal Reserve and its leadership weakened the US dollar, driving investors toward Bitcoin as a hedge. Meanwhile, institutional demand picked up, highlighted by Japan’s Metaplanet buying 330 additional BTC and strong inflows into US Bitcoin ETFs.

Bitcoin is now testing initial resistance at $88.3K, with major resistance at $92.5K – the same level that served as strong support from November through December.

Keep your head on a swivel  – this is far from over!

Stay tuned!

Martin

Trend Letter data analysis for financial markets and trading insights from DataMine Quest.

A hedging strategy

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Below is the weekend update from our hedging service Trend Technical Trader (TTT). TTT offers subscribers strategies to not just protect their wealth in declining markets, but to actually profit during market corrections/crashes.

Posted by Trend Technical Trader

The DJIA plunged last week, which should have come as no surprise to our readers.

Thursday a 386-point bounce began within just a few points of our predicted “around the 25200 level”, then markets dropped further to close near the lows of the day.  Friday’s trading was choppy but eventually markets rallied into the close.

A 287-point gain Friday in the DJIA is not impressive or an indication of strength after the 2052-point drop the senior index suffered the past week-and-a-half from peak to trough, however the rally is likely to continue another day or two.

Reiterating what we wrote on Wednesday:  While it’s true that market drops often end in October, we must ask which October?  Don’t presume it’ll be 2018.  All fundamental, historic, technical and sentiment indicators suggest a protracted bear market started in February as we’d stated emphatically at the time.

Rallies since then have only served to lure buyers into an epic top.

Recall that at the end of June we showed you our proprietary momentum indicator that has triggered shortly before each of every single major market drop of the past 30 years, warning that months of gains would be lost in days.  That’s what happened the past week-and-a-half and with that the DJIA is exactly back to where it was at the end of June, on its way much lower.

It’s not different this time.

Wednesday we correctly warned that “stocks are only slightly oversold on a short term basis, while in the intermediate and long term markets remain extremely overvalued with sentiment indicators highly elevated.  This week was just a very small “blip” in the longer term.”

This remains true, and in fact some of our historical technical measures suggest that stocks are overbought even in the short term.

As we’ve written before, small-caps tend to lead general market speculation up and down thus recent lows in the RUSSELL 2000 signaled trouble.  Today small-caps barely closed higher on the day (up less than one tenth of 1%), finding support at the 2018 break-even level.  We expect these to continue to lead the charge lower.

Most troubling is that key financial stocks are at 52-week lows.  We’ve often used these as market proxies which is what allowed us to confidently state that a plunge was due despite some major indexes hitting new all-time highs in the past month.  If you think general markets will charge far higher while global financials are in a massive and ongoing rut, you’re mistaken.

Thursday VXX hit a high of $38.69 so if you sold one of your VXX positions as suggested “near or above $37” then that’s coincidentally roughly a 37% gain in a week.

If you seek to reset that speculation we suggest doing so around $32 should it get there.  Those more conservative may wish to wait for a price back below $30.00

Wednesday we also predicted that margin calls may force covering of the record level of short positions in gold, and on Thursday precious metals did enjoy the largest 1-day rally in months.  Be aware however that as stocks sell-off globally in the weeks and months to come gold may be sold as well.  That’s what happened in 2008, proving that there’s no “flight to safety” among speculative classes when margin calls come due.  Cash will be king going forward.

Always adhere to prudent stops as posted.

We also enjoyed gains this week in our coffee position, via BJO, which rallied to a nearly 3-month high, now up 14% from our entry in August, complimenting our commodities gains booked earlier this year in cocoa and the Swiss franc.

Perhaps surprisingly Tesla Motors did not drop much this past week despite the general market plummet, catching bids just above its 200-week moving average though we still enjoy healthy gains in that short position.

There will likely be wild swings in Tesla, as is normal in any highly polarizing story stock with a cult-like following, but in time we’re confident it’ll be far below $100 as it should continue to grossly underperform vs. stocks in general.  Further, we expect that per the increased scrutiny of ongoing Department of Justice and S.E.C. investigations more and more of the company’s projections and accounting, along with the CEO’s very liberal concept of the truth, will be revealed as fraudulent.

Our Monthly Indicator is still bearish.

Update on Short positions:

At the extremes this week our five short positions were:

+44%, +40% and +16% in one week since entering, +37% in 1 month since entering, and +19% in 5 weeks since entering.

Two of our gold positions were +31% and +30% in 1 month since entering.

New position:

Given our bearish outlook overall, an outright long position may come as a shock however there are always exceptions.

We are recommending a new BUY Stop on a lithium company that is profitable and enjoys a competitive moat, and could be a major story stock in the future as battery technology improves and proliferates. Note: This recommendation is for paid subscribers only

To become a paid subscriber and receive all of TTT’s recommendations and market commentary, all at a Special Discount price of $399.95  (regular price is $649.95) CLICK HERE