Posts by The Trend Letter

Rates and tech can’t both keep climbing

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The big picture

  • Two things are rising together: interest rates and technology stocks. That pairing rarely lasts.
  • The numbers since April: the Nasdaq 100, an index of large technology-heavy companies, is up about 31%. The 10-year yield, the interest rate the US government pays to borrow for 10 years, is up about 23% from its starting level.
  • Why it matters: higher rates raise borrowing costs and usually weigh on share prices. If rates keep making new highs, they are likely to slow or end the stock market rally.
  • The other possibility: rates settle down on their own, and tech keeps rising.
  • Bottom line: one of the two has to give, so investors should be prepared for either outcome.


‘Since April, tech stocks and interest rates have climbed together, and rates have sped up since September. History suggests one of them has to give.’ Note: ‘The chart shows percentage change since April. The yield has risen by about 23% of its starting level, not by 23 percentage points.’

What the chart tells us

  • Tech did most of its climbing early: the bulk of the Nasdaq’s gain came in April and May. From June to mid-September it moved sideways while rates kept rising.
  • The risk is in the last six weeks: rates accelerated in September, and the Nasdaq broke out to new highs at the same time.

What could change the trend

  • Tech earnings: companies report their profits every three months, and the next round starts in mid-October. After a run this large, expectations are very high. Even good results can disappoint if they fall short of what investors hoped for, and that could cool the rally.
  • An economic slowdown: weaker growth would normally pull rates lower.

Where the damage is showing

  • Rate-sensitive sectors are struggling: areas such as housing, consumer discretionary (non-essential spending such as retail and travel) and mining stocks, such as uranium miners have been hurt by higher yields and energy prices.
  • Bonds remain weak: bond prices fall when yields rise, and a recent attempt at a recovery has failed.


‘Technology has led the market this year. Sectors that depend on low borrowing costs have fallen behind, and higher energy costs have added pressure on miners.’

Why rates may be closer to a peak

  • Sentiment is very negative: markets often turn when most investors have given up on a change.
  • Yields look stretched: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures how stretched a move is on a scale of 0 to 100. Readings above 70 are called ‘overbought’, meaning the rise may be overdone. The RSI on the 10-year yield is currently near 71.
  • High rates cure high rates: expensive mortgages slow housing sharply. That drags on the economy and eases inflation, which in time pulls rates down.
  • A caution: stretched markets can stay stretched. No one can pick the exact peak.


‘The lower panel shows RSI. A reading above 70 means yields have risen very fast and may be due to ease.’

Meanwhile, in technology

  • AI chip stocks keep making all-time highs: the leading sector of the year is still leading.
  • A warning sign: when Wall Street grows more optimistic and starts giving trades catchy names, enthusiasm is often running hot.


Chip stocks have more than tripled since April 2025 and are closing in on their June high. In the lower panel, RSI has just turned down from the 70 ‘overbought’ line, an early sign the rally may be losing steam.’

General suggestions for investors

  • Avoid chasing: buying a sector after a long run to record highs carries more risk than buying it earlier.
  • Buy in steps: if you want to add to a beaten-down area such as bonds, consider ‘scaling in’, which means buying in small amounts over several weeks instead of all at once.
  • Keep a watch list: rate-sensitive sectors tend to bounce when rates stop rising. Know which ones interest you before the turn comes.
  • Wait for evidence: look for signs that rates have peaked before committing new money to those sectors.
  • Check your balance: make sure no single sector, including technology, has grown too large a share of your portfolio.

A final note

  • Expecting a turn does not make it happen: markets can take far longer than anyone expects.
  • Time is the hard part: waiting wears down investors who try to catch the turn aggressively.
  • Stay patient: keep positions small and avoid any move that could do serious damage.

Stay tuned!

Martin

Oil, Inflation and Interest Rates: What to Watch

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Three charts explain the main risk in the oil market right now, and why it matters for bonds and stocks.

  1. The US emergency oil supply is running low
  • What it is: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is the US government’s emergency stockpile of crude oil.
  • What has happened: The government has been releasing oil from it to help hold prices down. The reserve is now about 284 million barrels, the lowest since the early 1980s.
  • The latest move: On Friday, the G7, the group of seven large, developed economies including the US and Canada, agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from their emergency reserves over the next four months.
  • Why it matters: This should help ease fuel prices in the short term. But every release leaves less in reserve, and less the governments can do to cap the next jump in oil prices.

  1. Fuel prices are still trending higher
  • Diesel: Diesel futures are near $4.50 a gallon, more than double the level at the start of the year. Diesel moves trucks, trains and farm equipment, so it feeds into the price of almost everything.

  • Crack spread: This is the gap between the price of crude oil and the price of the fuels made from it. Think of it as the refiner’s profit margin. It has tripled this year, to about $65 from $20.

  • The test: The G7 release is aimed squarely at diesel. The next few weeks will show whether it is enough to turn these two charts lower.
  • Signs it is working: Diesel is sitting right on its short-term trendline (dashed). A break below it, and a crack spread drop below its rising trendline near $58, would say the pressure is easing.
  • Signs it is not: The crack spread has hit the same ceiling, just under $70, three times since July. A move above that level, or diesel back above its September high near $5.20, would say the release was not enough.

What we are watching: The crack spread. A break above $70 would signal more inflation pressure ahead. A drop below its trendline near $58 would be the first sign the G7 release is working.

  1. Why bond investors care
  • The link: Higher fuel costs push up inflation. When investors expect more inflation, they demand higher interest rates on bonds.
  • Where we are: The US 10-year yield, the interest rate the US government pays to borrow for 10 years, is about 5.28%. That is above the 2023 peak near 5%.
  • The other side: High rates eventually slow the economy. Mortgages get more expensive, home sales slow, and spending on renovations and furniture falls. Slower growth cools inflation and tends to bring rates back down. In other words, the cure for high prices is high prices.

Energy stocks are holding up

  • XLE: In the Trend Letter we own this exchange-traded fund (ETF) that holds the large US energy companies. It pulled back from its September high near $66 and is holding above its short-term trendline (dotted) near $61. The longer-term uptrend from January (solid) sits near $57.

Refiners are leading the energy sector

  • What it is: The Oil Refiners ETF holds companies that turn crude oil into gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. An ETF (exchange-traded fund) is a basket of stocks you can buy as a single share.
  • Why it is rising: Refiners earn the crack spread. When that margin widens, their profits grow.
  • What has happened: The ETF has more than doubled since its April 2025 low near $25. Since late June it has climbed from about $45 to about $64.
  • What to watch: It has pulled back from its September high near $66 and is sitting right on its short-term trendline (dashed). A close below that line would be the first sign the rally is losing steam. The longer-term uptrend (solid) sits much lower, near $49.

The big picture

  • It starts with oil: Fuel prices are the link between the oil market, inflation and interest rates. When fuel costs rise, inflation worries follow, and interest rates tend to rise with them.
  • Less of a cushion: The US emergency reserve is at its lowest in more than 40 years, and the G7 is now drawing on its stockpiles too. That leaves less room to hold prices down if oil jumps again.
  • Winners and losers: Energy stocks, and refiners in particular, have benefited from higher fuel prices. Bonds have been hurt by them.
  • Nothing lasts forever: High prices and high interest rates eventually slow the economy, and that in turn eases the pressure on both.
  • What we are watching: The crack spread. A break above $70 would signal more inflation pressure ahead. A drop below its trendline near $58 would be the first sign the G7 release is working.

Stay tuned!

Martin

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It’s All Connected: The Charts Behind My Latest Interview

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This week I joined Jim Goddard on This Week in Money. We covered a lot of ground: oil, diesel, interest rates, bonds, currencies, gold, stocks and DeFi. On air, I promised listeners some charts so they could see what I was describing instead of trying to picture it.

Here they are, in the same order as the interview. Each section includes the timestamp so you can jump back to that part of the conversation.

The common thread is simple: it’s all connected. Oil pushed inflation up. Inflation pushed central banks to raise rates. Higher rates pushed bond yields to multi-decade highs. And those yields are now colliding with a mountain of debt.

[Listen to the full interview ]

1. Oil: a tug-of-war between supply and fear (9:00)

WTI crude, daily. Oil has been climbing in a rising channel since July. The green line is ‘support’, a level where buyers tend to step in. The red line is ‘resistance’, a level where sellers tend to take over. Oil was turned back at the top of the channel near $105 in mid-September and is now testing support around $92–93 (dotted line).

  • Supply improved: Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West pipeline, which moves oil around the Strait of Hormuz. That extra supply initially pushed prices lower.
  • Fear won anyway: Heated threats between the US and Iran at the UN General Assembly sent Brent up about 4% in a single day.
  • The lesson: When supply is already tight, it doesn’t take an actual disruption to move prices. The fear of one is enough.
  • Still disrupted: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still running roughly 80% below normal. Libya’s output is offline, and Russian fuel exports are restricted.
  • An analogy: Think of global oil supply as several pipes feeding one big tank. One kinked pipe (the Saudi pipeline) got fixed, but the threats traded between Washington and Tehran more than offset it.
  • The election angle: With US midterms about six weeks away, high pump prices put pressure on Washington. Iran knows it.

2. Diesel: the bigger problem (13:29)

3-2-1 crack spread, weekly. This is the refiner’s profit on each barrel of crude turned into gasoline and diesel. The lower left shows the normal range of $15–20. Today’s margin of about $$60-65 is more than triple that.

What’s a crack spread? Refiners buy crude oil and ‘crack’ it into finished fuels like gasoline and diesel. The crack spread is the difference between what they pay for crude and what they sell the fuel for. In other words, it’s the refiner’s profit margin.

The 3-2-1 example:

  • Cost: 3 barrels of crude at about $95 each = $285
  • Revenue: 2 barrels of gasoline (about $145 each) + 1 barrel of diesel (about $190) = $480
  • Margin: $195 ÷ 3 barrels = about $65 per barrel
  • Normal: Typically $15–20. Today’s margin is almost  triple that.

US diesel vs. crude oil. Crude has risen, but diesel has climbed much faster. That widening gap is the refining shortage in action.

This isn’t really a crude oil shortage anymore. It’s a refining shortage, and diesel is where it shows up worst. US diesel recently hit an all-time high.

Why diesel matters to everyone: It isn’t just for trucks. It powers trains, ships, farm equipment and construction machinery, so it touches the cost of almost everything that gets moved or grown.

Why it’s a global squeeze:

  • Russia: Ukrainian drone strikes have hit Russian refineries roughly every three days on average this year. Russian refinery output has fallen to its lowest level in over 20 years, and Russia has banned its own gasoline and diesel exports.
  • North America: No new US refinery has been built since the mid-1970s. Canada’s last one, in Edmonton in 2017, was its first in 33 years.
  • The key difference: A crude shortage can be eased by releasing oil from strategic reserves. A refining shortage can’t. You can’t build a refinery in a week, so diesel prices can stay high even if crude cools off.

3. Why a diesel export ban could backfire (18:30)

US diesel retail price. Diesel hit a record near $6.50 a gallon, roughly 75–80% higher than a year ago. That’s the pain farmers and truckers are feeling heading into the midterms.

  • The idea: President Trump wants to ban diesel exports so more fuel stays home and prices fall. Farmers and truckers are angry heading into the midterms.
  • The problem: US refiners are running near full capacity because they can sell surplus diesel overseas at high prices. The US market alone can’t absorb it all.
  • What happens next: With exports cut off, refiners would scale back to avoid a glut.
  • The backfire: Remember the 3-2-1 example. The same barrel of crude makes gasoline and jet fuel too. Cut refining to reduce diesel, and gasoline and jet fuel supply drop as well, which pushes those prices higher.
  • Bottom line: Energy Secretary Chris Wright understands this plumbing. You can’t legislate more fuel into existence by restricting where it goes. You can only decide which fuels get squeezed.

4. Rising interest rates: what they mean for you (21:47)

Fed funds rate, since 2019. The Fed cut rates to near zero in 2020, then raised them sharply in 2022–23 to fight inflation. After cutting through 2024 and 2025, it has just raised rates for the first time since July 2023.

Central banks are raising rates because of the energy shock. The Fed just hiked for the first time in three years, and the European Central Bank has hiked twice since the Iran war began. Both cited oil and fuel prices.

  • Mortgages: Variable rates and new fixed rates go up. Renewing now likely means a much higher payment than you budgeted for.
  • Credit cards and lines of credit: Variable rates rise almost immediately by the same amount as the central bank’s hike, so minimum payments rise too.
  • Big purchases: Vehicles, appliances and business equipment all cost more to finance.
  • The silver lining: Savers finally earn a bit more on cash in high-interest savings accounts and short-term deposits.
  • The real worry: Central banks target about 2% inflation a year. The concern isn’t that inflation exists; it’s that it could surge. When people expect higher prices, they buy early and businesses raise prices pre-emptively. That’s how a temporary energy shock becomes a sticky inflation problem.

5. The bond market warning (25:16)

US 10-year Treasury yield, since 1999. For more than 20 years, yields fell steadily (green line), and money got cheaper and cheaper. In 2022 that trend broke, ending the era of cheap money. The yield is now pressing against its 2007 high of about 5.3% (red dotted line), set just before the financial crisis. A break above it would put the 10-year at its highest level in more than two decades.

Big Tech bond issuance. The five biggest AI cloud companies borrowed about $28 billion a year from 2020 to 2024. That jumped to $121 billion last year and has already topped $220 billion this year. Source: BofA Securities via Reuters; Reuters and Bloomberg reporting for 2026.

What’s a bond yield? It’s the interest rate investors demand to lend money to a government or company. When yields rise, borrowing gets more expensive for everyone.

  • Multi-decade highs: The US 10-year yield hit 5.21%, its highest since 2007, just before the financial crisis. The 30-year is around 5.5%, its highest since 2004.
  • Global, not just US: Canada’s 10-year is around 4%, and Japan’s is 3.08%, its highest in about 30 years.
  • Three forces at once: Stronger-than-expected economic data, oil back in the $90–100 range, and a Fed chair saying inflation isn’t cooling fast enough.
  • A new competitor for lenders: The biggest AI cloud companies (Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle) used to issue about $25–30 billion a year in bonds. That jumped to $121 billion last year and has passed $220 billion so far this year to fund the AI buildout. They’re also borrowing in euros, yen, Canadian dollars and pounds, so they compete directly with governments for the same pension funds, insurers and bond funds.
  • Why stocks care: Higher yields make growth and tech stocks less attractive, because their value depends on profits far in the future.
  • The bill coming due: Global debt has topped $365 trillion. The US pays about $1.24 trillion a year in interest on its $40 trillion debt. That reflects an average rate of only about 3.5%, because much of the debt was issued when rates were near zero. If that average climbs toward today’s 5–5.5%, US interest costs could reach $1.7–2 trillion a year, before a single new dollar of borrowing.
  • An analogy: It’s like renewing a mortgage at a much higher rate. More of every paycheck goes to interest before anything else gets paid.

6. Currencies: follow the interest rate gap (34:38)

Canadian dollar, in US cents, daily. The loonie broke its short-term uptrend in mid-September (steeper green line) and has since slid from nearly 73 cents to about 70.7. It’s now approaching its long-term support line, which has held since early 2025 and sits around 70.5. If that line holds, the loonie could stabilize. A clean break below it would be a warning sign for further weakness.

Japanese Yen. A rising line means a stronger yen. After sliding into late July, the yen has climbed in a series of higher lows (green line). It spiked about 5% in early September, gave back more than half of that, and is now bouncing off its rising trendline as talk of government intervention returns. A sharply stronger yen is what could force the carry trade to unwind.

Currencies and interest rates are two sides of the same coin. Money flows to where it earns the most.

  • US dollar: The Dollar Index is at 101, its highest since July. Fed officials are openly talking about more hikes.
  • Canadian dollar: High oil normally helps the loonie, since energy is Canada’s biggest export. But the Fed is hiking while the Bank of Canada isn’t, so the loonie has slipped from about 73 cents US to just over 70.
  • Japanese yen: Japan’s finance minister is voicing concern about yen weakness, and markets are bracing for intervention.
  • What’s the yen carry trade? For years, Japan kept rates near zero. Investors borrowed yen cheaply and bought higher-returning assets elsewhere, from US tech stocks to emerging-market bonds.
  • Why it matters: As the Bank of Japan raises rates, that trade gets less profitable. If investors unwind it, they sell those assets to buy back yen. We got a preview in August 2024, when a much smaller yen move sparked a sharp global sell-off in stocks and crypto within hours.

7. Gold: the neckline broke. Now what? (38:59)

Gold, daily: the head-and-shoulders. Since the January high, gold has formed two lower ‘shoulders’ with a higher ‘head’ on August 25 between them. The line under the shoulders is the ‘neckline’, at about 4,300. Gold closed below it this week, which opens the door to a retest of 3,900–4,000.

Gold, daily: the rising trendline. This line runs from the start of gold’s big run, through the March 23 low, to the August 25 high. It’s acting as resistance. Because it slopes upward, it leaves room for a run toward 4,700–4,800 by mid-October.

What’s a head-and-shoulders pattern? It’s three peaks, with the middle one (the ‘head’) highest and the two on either side (the ‘shoulders’) lower. A line under the shoulders is called the ‘neckline’. A close below it is a bearish signal.

  • What happened: Gold broke below the roughly 4,300 neckline earlier this week and is trading just under 4,290.
  • Why it’s struggling: The Fed’s hawkish rate hike. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates make interest-paying assets look more attractive.
  • Why it’s holding up well: Given how fast yields are rising, gold has barely reacted to the hike.
  • The bullish case: The rising trendline shown in the second chart is acting as resistance. Because it slopes upward, it leaves room for a run toward 4,700–4,800 by mid-October.
  • The big picture: Governments are running enormous deficits. On top of its $40 trillion debt, the US has over $200 trillion in unfunded liabilities such as Social Security and Medicare. Governments can print currency, but they can’t print gold.
  • My view: Any pullback in gold is a buying opportunity. We’ll flag specific entry points to Trend Letter subscribers.

8. Stocks: making money now vs. promising it later (43:52)

S&P 500, daily. The index has climbed in a rising channel since April (green line = support, red line = resistance, now near 8,000). Since mid-August it has paused in a ‘bull flag’ (shaded area): a short, gentle drift lower after a big run that often comes before the uptrend resumes. It dipped briefly below 7,600 in mid-September, then pushed back up and out of the top of the flag. The yellow line at 7,600, June’s breakout level, is the key support to watch.

  • The dividing line: It’s less about which sector you’re in, and more about whether a business is making money now or is priced on a story about the future.
  • Holding up: Chipmakers and memory makers riding a real shortage (Micron is up over 260% this year), and energy stocks, especially refiners, riding real oil prices.
  • Getting squeezed: Companies priced on distant future growth, as yields rise.
  • Levels to watch: The S&P 500 is around 7,740. It has been climbing in a rising channel since April and chopping between 7,600 and 7,800 for several weeks.
  • Key support: 7,600, the old June breakout level. As long as it holds on a closing basis, the uptrend is intact. A clean break below it would be the first real warning sign.
  • Expect volatility: Valuations are stretched, September is historically the S&P’s worst month, and markets dislike the uncertainty of the midterms.

9. DeFi: Wall Street moves onto the blockchain (48:36)

  • What’s DeFi? Decentralized finance: financial services run on a blockchain instead of through traditional banks and exchanges.
  • What’s tokenization? Creating a digital version of a real-world asset (a stock, bond, building or piece of art) that lives on a blockchain, so it can move faster and settle instantly.
  • NYSE and Blockchain.com: A new agreement lets Blockchain.com users buy tokenized US stocks and ETFs through the NYSE’s digital platform, without first converting their crypto into dollars.
  • Ondo Finance and BlackRock: Ondo is launching ‘intelligent portfolios’, professionally built portfolios packaged as a single token and based on strategies BlackRock developed for on-chain use.
  • Why it matters: The biggest names on Wall Street (BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, BNY Mellon and Franklin Templeton) are now all talking tokenization. This is big.

DeFi Digest is still free, but not for long.

To get on the Defi Digest list, email us at info@thetrendletter.com and ask to be put on the list.  A new issue is coming in the next week or two.

Special offer for This Week in Money listeners

  • Any one service: $250 off
  • Any two services: $600 off
  • All three (Trend Letter, Trend Technical Trader and Trend Disruptors): $1,050 off

[Claim your discount]

Martin

Can the Treasury Really Defy Math? Why the ‘Bessent Put’ Is Playing a Dangerous Game

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Can the Treasury Really Defy Math? Why the ‘Bessent Put’ Is Playing a Dangerous Game

When US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to calm the world’s largest bond market with an expanded buyback program — announcing a maximum of $6 billion in purchases of longer-dated debt — the message was clear: the Treasury wanted to smooth volatility, ease rising yields, and show that official steps could prevent disorderly sell-offs.

(A buyback is when the Treasury repurchases some of its own previously issued bonds — essentially using new short-term borrowing to retire older debt and support liquidity.)

As the chart shows, the 10-year yield has been in a clean uptrend since bottoming near 3.9% back in March, and it was already pushing toward multi-year highs going into this week’s announcement. Instead of calming things down, the bond market largely shrugged. Yields moved higher — remember, yields and bond prices move in opposite directions, so rising yields mean bond prices are falling — and traders signaled that a $6 billion operation isn’t enough against the much larger flow of new debt the government must continually issue.

This raises a key question for investors and taxpayers: why is trying to manage long-term bond yields mainly through tactical buybacks a risky strategy?

  1. $6 Billion vs. a $40 Trillion Problem

The US is running large deficits — around $2 trillion annually in recent years — and has a national debt that has passed the $40 trillion mark. Gross issuance is even larger, since short-term securities mature constantly and must be rolled over.

Against that volume, a $6 billion buyback ceiling is a rounding error: even a $6 billion operation works out to roughly 0.01% of the total debt outstanding. And this isn’t a one-time move — Treasury has said future operations will run ‘at least $4 billion’ going forward, meaning small, repeated doses rather than a single fix.

Buybacks can help clear older, harder-to-trade bonds from dealer inventories and support liquidity. They cannot change the underlying amount of new debt the market has to absorb. The Treasury is essentially removing a few older securities from circulation while continuing to bring far larger amounts of fresh supply to market behind it.

  1. The Danger of the ‘Confidence Game’ (the so-called ‘Bessent Put’)

When officials intervene to influence market pricing, investors often start pricing in a ‘put’ — a reference to options trading, where a put option protects you if prices fall. Here, it means an informal market expectation that the government will keep stepping in to put a floor under bond prices and a ceiling on yields.

The trap: once markets believe the Treasury is defending a level, every rise in yields becomes a test of official resolve. If the next intervention falls short of expectations, it can trigger a sharper sell-off rather than calm — the opposite of what was intended.

History shows that defending specific prices against strong macro forces — heavy supply, inflation concerns, and so on — is difficult and often ends poorly.

  1. Shifting Short-Term Pain into Longer-Term Vulnerability

To manage deficits or avoid locking in high long-term rates, governments can lean more heavily on short-term debt, like Treasury bills. This can work for a while, but it creates structural risk.

Short-term debt must be refinanced — or ‘rolled over’ — every few months. A 30-year bond locks in today’s rate for decades; a short-term bill doesn’t. If inflation rises, geopolitical tensions flare up, or capital flows shift, those rollover costs can jump almost immediately. Higher interest expense then crowds out other government spending and can worsen the fiscal picture down the road.

The Bottom Line

Bessent’s more activist approach may help during isolated liquidity squeezes and stop minor disruptions from snowballing. It cannot reverse the basic arithmetic of large ongoing deficits and heavy debt supply. Trying to ease yields mainly through tactical buybacks — without addressing the underlying fiscal imbalance — is a limited tool at best.

For retail investors, the takeaway is simple: official interventions can move short-term market psychology, but fundamentals — deficits, debt levels, inflation, and supply — still dominate over time. Don’t assume perpetual official support will keep yields low indefinitely. Focus on diversification, understand the interest-rate risk in your own portfolio, and keep an eye on the longer-term fiscal picture.

Eventually, the limits of tactical measures become visible.

 

Debt, bonds, gold, oil, bitcoin: it’s all connected this week

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Market Pulse
The Week That Was — Aug 14–21, 2026
Hello Investors,
It’s all connected — and this week proved it again. Bonds, gold, oil, and bitcoin all moved on the same two storylines: Washington’s scramble to control borrowing costs, and Washington’s escalating economic war with Iran. Here’s what mattered.
Bond Yields: Treasury Blinks, Market Doesn’t Buy It
  • The 10-year hit 4.74% on Friday — a fresh 20-month high — even after the Treasury tried to talk yields down mid-week.
  • The 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.33% this week — its highest level in nearly 20 years, last seen in the summer of 2007, just before the financial crisis.
  • Treasury Secretary Bessent announced the department would double its long-bond buybacks to $4 billion next quarter, hoping to cap borrowing costs. It worked for about a day.
  • Fed Chair Kevin Warsh muddied the picture further, signaling a rate hike ‘may not be his preferred tool’ to fight inflation — leaving markets guessing ahead of Jackson Hole.
  • The number behind all of it: US national debt just hit a record $40,060,947,165,774. That works out to $116,507 for every citizen and $360,794 for every taxpayer — up a full trillion dollars in just five months.
  • Bottom line: at a 19-year high of 5.33%, the 30-year yield is tightening the screws on everyone who borrows money. Mortgage rates move higher, corporate borrowing gets more expensive, and the AI buildout — running on cheap debt — suddenly costs a lot more to finance. And a government $40 trillion in debt faces a crushing interest bill that already exceeds defence spending. Higher for longer isn’t just a Fed slogan anymore. It’s the new cost of doing business in America.
Gold: Best Week Since Mid-May
  • Gold broke above $4,600/oz on Friday, its highest level since mid-May, extending weekly gains to roughly 5%.
  • The trigger: growing alarm over US fiscal sustainability after national debt crossed the $40 trillion mark (see above) — the fastest single-trillion increase on record.
  • Central banks aren’t waiting around either — they bought a record 288.9 tonnes in Q2, up 62% year-over-year, buying into weakness, not strength.
  • Bottom line: every time Washington tries to manage its own debt problem, gold gets another bid. That dynamic isn’t going away.
Oil: Iran Tensions Ratchet Up Again
  • Brent settled the week at $94.39, WTI at $87.06 — Brent up 6.4% and WTI up 5.7% on the week, both touching their highest levels since late July.
  • The 60-day window for a US-Iran deal expired Monday with no resolution. Trump has since threatened sanctions on Iran’s trading partners and told his envoys to stand down from talks entirely.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut — a fraction of normal tanker traffic is getting through, and Iran says it won’t reopen the waterway until sanctions are lifted and ‘war reparations’ are paid.
  • The oil market’s problem is increasingly not simply access to crude, but the ability to turn that crude into diesel, gasoline and other products.
  • Consequently, refined fuels like diesel are driving broader inflation risks far more than crude prices alone imply..
  • Bottom line: this isn’t a spike-and-fade story anymore. The standoff is structural, and energy markets are pricing that in.
Bitcoin: Biggest Weekly Gain in Two Years
  • Bitcoin ripped roughly 20–22% this week, closing near $77,000 after starting the week around $62,800.
  • The rally lit up Wednesday, the moment Treasury yields pulled back on Bessent’s bond-buyback news — risk assets took the signal and ran.
  • Momentum built further on progress toward crypto market-structure legislation (the Clarity Act).
  • Bottom line: bitcoin traded this week like a high-beta bond proxy. When Washington moves on yields, crypto moves harder.
Canada-US Trade: Deal Collapses at the Midnight Deadline
  • Talks between Ottawa and Washington fell apart late Friday night, just minutes before a midnight deadline — triggering 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods, including hockey equipment, building materials, liquor, and clothing.
  • PM Mark Carney said Washington’s last-minute changes to agreed terms were ‘unfair, uneconomic,’ and called into question the reliability of any deal — and pulled Canada’s negotiators back to Ottawa.
  • The US side blames Canada for walking away from terms it says were already settled. Either way, Canada has vowed to match the tariffs dollar for dollar starting Sept. 8.
  • Energy, potash, and critical minerals were carved out of the new tariffs — worth watching for our uranium and rare-earth positions.
  • Bottom line: this is a fresh, direct hit to cross-border trade sentiment and adds another layer of uncertainty right as bonds, gold, and oil are already repricing risk. For Canadian investors, it’s one more reason hard assets and diversification matter right now.
The thread connecting it all: Washington is trying to manage a debt and inflation problem with one hand, running an open-ended economic war with Iran with the other, and now reigniting a trade fight with its closest neighbour. Gold and bitcoin are pricing the debt story. Oil and bonds are pricing the Iran story. Friday’s tariff news is a direct warning for Canadian investors. Companies that depend on US exports — manufacturers, lumber producers, auto parts suppliers, agricultural exporters — are directly in the crosshairs of new 50% tariffs.
Portfolio Spotlight: The Aug 5 Alert Is Already Paying Off
Trend Letter Open Portfolio: 21 positions, 17 positive, 4 negative, 60.24% average gain
Two weeks ago, we sent subscribers a BUY alert on three names built for exactly this environment — a debasement trade, a uranium supply story, and a geopolitical risk hedge — plus pointed new subscribers to a rare-earths position already sitting in our long-term model portfolio. Here’s how fast it’s already working:
Position Rec. Date Rec. Price Current Gain
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) 08/05/26 $224.85 $297.82 +32.45%
iShares Silver Bullion (2nd position) 08/05/26 $28.36 $31.75 +11.95%
Uranium Miners (2nd position) 08/05/26 $52.26 $58.19 +11.35%
We also flagged REMX (rare earths) to new subscribers that same week as a name already sitting in our long-term model portfolio. Since Aug 5, REMX has moved from $72.46 to $80.75 — a gain of +11.44% in the same two weeks.
Two weeks. Four names. Double-digit gains across the board — and gold’s biggest single mover, AEM, is already up over 32%.
This is exactly the kind of setup we build the Trend Letter portfolio around: when the macro backdrop turns — debt worries pushing gold, geopolitical risk pushing uranium and hard assets — we want you positioned before the move, not chasing it afterward.
And it’s not an isolated win. The full open portfolio is averaging a 60.24% gain across 21 active positions, with standouts like VanEck Junior Miners (+274%) and ProShares Ultra Long Gold (+176%) showing what staying with a multi-year thesis can do.
If you’re not already a Trend Letter subscriber, this is the kind of call you’re missing.
Subscribe for only $399.95
Talk soon,
Martin
Note: performance shown reflects Trend Letter model portfolio tracking as of Aug 22, 2026, and is not indicative of individual subscriber results. Past performance does not guarantee future returns.

 

Gold and silver just broke levels we’ve been watching

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Below are the charts we have been showing subscribers for over a month.

Gold and silver have both been fighting the same fight for months — grinding under long-term downtrend lines while bulls waited for a real break. Last week, both charts finally took it.

Gold

Gold broke back above the descending trendline that’s capped every rally attempt since the January top near $5,624. Price is sitting around $4,406 right on top of that broken line and the 50-day average at $4,388 — which is exactly where you’d expect a pause after a move like this.

If gold keeps pushing, the next levels to watch are $4,499, then $4,778.5, then $4,898.5. If it stalls and pulls back to retest the line it just broke — the $4,100–4,150 zone — that’s not a red flag. Retests of a fresh breakout are normal, and it’s actually where the better entries tend to show up. The level that would change the picture is $3,932.8; below that, the bigger support sits at $3,438.7.

Silver

Silver’s doing the same thing at the same time. Price is around $65.26, running into resistance at $65 and its own longer-term downtrend line simultaneously — two ceilings meeting at once, which is why it’s worth watching closely here. A clean break through opens the path to $68.86, then $70.61–70.80. If it doesn’t hold, there’s a long gap down to major support in the $50–53 range.

What’s actually behind this

The technical picture is the easy part to see on a chart. The bigger story is what’s driving it: government debt loads climbing across every major economy at once, currency debasement becoming a mainstream conversation instead of a fringe one, and central banks buying gold for reserves at a pace we haven’t seen in decades. Silver’s got an added push from industrial demand tied to the solar and grid buildout.

We don’t play the multi-year price-target game here — too much can shift between now and whenever that target would hit. What matters is whether the structural case holds, and letting the charts tell us the probabilities from here rather than guessing.

Keep your head up!

Martin

 

SpaceX’s Lockup Is Here — And Early Investors Got In at $4

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SpaceX: Not the Launch Musk Fans Were Hoping For

When I sat down with This Week in Money on July 24 (link) the conversation turned to one of the most talked-about IPOs in market history — and I had to be the bearer of some uncomfortable news. SpaceX hadn’t exactly delivered the launch its fans were hoping for. On Friday’s MoneyTalks with Mike Campbell (link), time constraints meant we didn’t get the chance to follow up on SpaceX — so here’s that update, and where things stand.

From $226 to $108 in Six Weeks

SpaceX (SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 back in June. On June 16, it shot as high as $226. Since then, it’s dropped roughly 52%, and as of this writing sits around $108.

That’s a brutal round trip for anyone who bought into the hype at the top — and it sets up the next chapter in this story; one we flagged well before it happened.

The Lockup Expiry is Here

Last month, we told readers to watch August 6 — the first lockup expiry date, which lets early institutional investors start cashing out. That date has now arrived, and it’s worth understanding exactly what’s unlocking and why it matters. The trigger for the unlock is SpaceX’s first-ever earnings report as a public company, due out Tuesday, August 4 — the lockup lifts two trading days later.

Here’s the mechanic: before SpaceX ever traded on a public exchange, massive institutional players — think Google, Fidelity, and large venture capital funds — were allowed to buy private shares years ago, long before everyday investors ever got a shot. Those early backers are now sitting on enormous, deeply discounted positions, and the lockup is what’s kept them from selling until now.

This is just the first release. SpaceX structured its lockup in stages rather than one single cliff, meaning more tranches of shares are scheduled to become eligible for sale later this year — so this week’s unlock is the opening event in a longer story, not the end of it.

To put those entry prices in perspective: a $10 million investment at $4 a share would be worth roughly $270 million today at the current $108 price. The same $10 million invested at $6 a share would be worth about $180 million. Either way, that’s the kind of return that was only available to early institutional money — long before the stock ever traded on a public exchange.

Google’s $94 billion Reveal

Just last week, Google disclosed exactly how big its own stake really is: $94.1 billion in SpaceX shares, or roughly 6% of the company. That position traces back to a $1 billion investment Google made alongside Fidelity all the way back in 2015, when SpaceX was valued at a mere $12 billion.

Let that sink in: this isn’t a new bet Google just made. It’s an eleven-year-old position that’s grown into one of the largest paper gains any public company has ever booked on a single private investment.

That also means Google is now one of the biggest holders sitting directly on top of the exact supply overhang we warned about. When lockups lift, even modest profit-taking from a stake this size can put serious pressure on a stock — and $94 billion is not a modest stake.

Access Retail Investors Never Had

This dynamic simply comes down to the difference between private and public investing. Early institutional backers bought in at $4 to $6 a share years ago, taking on early-stage risk long before the company was proven. Public markets naturally come later in a company’s lifecycle, meaning retail investors enter after that initial growth phase has already played out.

The Takeaway for Retail Investors

None of this means SpaceX is a bad company. Starlink — SpaceX’s satellite internet division — remains a genuine profit engine, effectively subsidizing the company’s AI ambitions, and the long-term ambitions around Starship are real. But the setup right now is a textbook lockup dynamic: a stock that’s already down 52% from its high, facing a fresh wave of institutional sellers who got in at prices retail investors will never see again.

To be clear, we’re not predicting that these early investors will dump their entire positions the moment shares unlock — most will sell gradually, if at all, to manage price impact and tax timing. The point is simpler: when your cost basis is $4 to $6 a share and the stock is sitting at $108, the incentive to lock in at least some of that gain is real. It’s a dynamic worth watching, not a forecast.

If you’re holding SPCX or thinking about buying the dip, go in with clear eyes about what August 6 means for supply — and remember that any selling that does show up from these investors likely isn’t a reaction to today’s headlines. It’s early money weighing whether to lock in an eleven-year win.

Keep your head up!

Martin

The AI Boom Just Got a Bill in the Mail

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The Fed didn’t hike rates this week. That was supposed to be the good news.

But while everyone was celebrating the Fed staying put, something more important was happening in the bond market — and it’s the real reason tech stocks got hammered.

Here’s the simple version: long-term interest rates are climbing, and that’s a problem for AI.

Why This Matters to You

The AI trade has long been fixated on demand indicators, viewing massive capital expenditure as validation of the boom. However, market attention ignored a critical follow-up: Who ultimately funds these capital investments, and what is the cost of capital behind them? That question just got a lot more expensive to ignore. While short-term rates held steady, the 30-year Treasury yield pushed back toward levels we haven’t seen in almost 20 years. Oil prices climbing, inflation fears creeping back in — the bond market did what the Fed wouldn’t.

Translation: even though the Fed held rates flat, borrowing got more expensive anyway.

US 30-Year Treasury Yield — back above 5.2%, its highest level in nearly two decades, even as the Fed held its overnight rate steady.

Why AI Companies Care So Much About This

Meta just told investors it plans to spend up to $145 billion in 2026 building AI infrastructure. That’s not pocket change — and it’s not all cash sitting in the bank. A lot of this buildout is financed: debt, leases, credit from suppliers.

It’s a good story until the interest bill shows up.

The Spark: Korea

The selling actually started in Korea. SK Hynix — a major chipmaker — put up genuinely strong results. In a normal market, that’s a ‘buy the dip’ headline.

Not this time. Revenue came in just a touch below sky-high expectations, and the reaction was brutal. It didn’t stay contained to one stock, either — the entire KOSPI index rolled over, sliding out of its uptrend and into a clean downtrend that’s still running.

The lesson: when a stock — or a whole market — is priced for perfection, ‘very good’ isn’t good enough anymore.

KOSPI Index — Korea’s benchmark rolled out of its uptrend and into a falling channel the same week SK Hynix’s results disappointed, spreading the selloff well beyond a single stock.

That selling spread fast — into chips, into AI-adjacent names, into the broader market globally.

SOXX Semiconductor ETF — the clean uptrend (green channel) broke the same week Korea’s chip selloff hit, and price has been sliding in a new downtrend (red channel) ever since.

And here’s the catch-22: the more confident these companies get about AI demand, the more they spend to keep up — which means the more they need to borrow — which means the more exposed they are when borrowing costs rise.

What Changes From Here

This doesn’t mean the AI trade is over. It means the market is about to get pickier.

Going forward, expect investors to start separating AI winners into two camps:

  • Companies already turning AI demand into real cash flow — these should hold up.
  • Companies still burning cash building for a future that hasn’t arrived yet — these get judged much more harshly.

Cheap chips and big spending numbers won’t automatically justify sky-high valuations anymore. The market wants to know the financing terms, not just the growth story.

Bottom line: The AI trade isn’t broken. But the free pass on ‘spend now, profit later’ is over. From here, it’s not just about how big the story is — it’s about who can actually afford to build it.

 

Oil fell 9%. Stocks still couldn’t rally. Here’s why that matters

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Today was one of those days where the headline and the reality told very different stories.

The US paused its bombing campaign against Iran. Oil fell nearly 9%. Markets opened higher. It looked like relief had finally arrived.

It didn’t last.

🟢 THE PAUSE THAT ISN’T A DEAL

Iran denied agreeing to any formal ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed. US naval forces are still enforcing the blockade. Side conflicts — Saudi strikes on Houthis, Ukraine hitting an Iranian vessel — are all still active.

This is a pause. And every pause this year has been broken.

Oil will have its say again.

🟡 CHIPS ARE BREAKING — AND NOT BECAUSE OF OIL

Here is what the market is actually signalling today — and it has nothing to do with Iran.

Oil fell 9%. Stocks should have rallied. Instead, semiconductors sold off hard:

• AMD -7%

• ASML -6% on reports China is building its own chip-making machines

• Micron -3%, Teradyne -5%

• VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) -3%

The Nasdaq has now posted two straight weekly losses. The AI trade is under pressure on its own — independent of oil, independent of Iran. That is a more important signal than today’s ceasefire headline.

Meanwhile, money rotated into crypto-linked stocks. Strategy +7%, Coinbase +4.5%, Bitmine +11%. Investors are quietly moving away from AI infrastructure and toward alternative assets.

🟠 CHINA JUST CREATED A CHIP CHAMPION

CXMT debuted on the Shanghai exchange today with a 467% first-day gain — raising $8.6 billion in Asia’s biggest IPO of the year. Apple is reportedly already testing CXMT memory chips for devices sold in China.

China is funding chip self-reliance. Wall Street is selling its chip leaders. The global chip industry is splitting in two.

🔵 THE FED GETS A WINDOW — BUT NOT A FREE PASS

Lower oil gives the Fed a slightly easier position ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision. No change is expected this week. But if oil bounces — and history this year says it will — the debate about a September rate hike returns immediately.

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⭐ HOW OUR SUBSCRIBERS PLAYED TODAY’S MOVE

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This morning our USO (United States Oil Fund) sell stop triggered at $128.66 — closing our oil trade with a gain of approximately 16.70% in just three weeks.

Entry: $110.24 on July 8th

Exit: $128.66 this morning

Maximum risk at entry: 7.5%

Gain: ~16.70%

We raised our sell stop three times as the trade moved in our favour — protecting more profit at every step. When oil dropped today on the ceasefire pause, our stop did exactly what it was designed to do.

This is a sample of what a Trend Letter subscription looks like in practice.

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Is this the market top?

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S&P 500 — Is the Rally Over? June 11, 2026

The S&P 500 has hit some turbulence after a remarkable run. Here’s what’s happening and what to watch for.

The backstory in plain English

From early April through late May, the S&P 500 climbed in one of the cleanest, most consistent rallies of the year — rising from around 6,400 all the way to 7,600. Every pullback found buyers, and the market marched steadily higher along a rising trendline.

That trendline broke on June 3rd. When a trendline that clean breaks, it matters.

What has happened since

The S&P has now dropped from its highs near 7,600 down to 7,289 — a decline of roughly 4%. That may not sound dramatic, but it’s how it’s falling that concerns us technically:

  • The market broke below 7,337 — a key support level it had respected for weeks
  • That level is now acting as resistance — meaning the market has to fight to get back above it
  • We’ve seen a lower low — the latest drop went below the previous pullback low, a classic early warning sign

The three stages we are watching for a market top

  1. Stage 1 ✅ — Market pierces a previous low then bounces. Warning shot — roughly 60% probability of a top
  2. Stage 2 ✅ — Market closes below that low on a daily basis. Stronger signal — probability rises to ~70%
  3. Stage 3 ⏳ — Market bounces, but the bounce fails below the previous high, creating a lower high — then rolls over again. This would push probability to 75-80%

We have two of three stages complete. Stage 3 is setting up right now.

What to watch this week

The market is bouncing Thursday morning — that’s normal and expected. The critical question is: does this bounce run out of steam below 7,600? If it does, and the market rolls over again, that lower high completes the pattern and significantly raises the odds that the April-to-June rally is over for now.

We are not chasing this bounce. We’re watching where it stops.

What this means for our subscribers

No changes for now. But we could add an insurance play soon.

Stay tuned!

Martin

As always, this is not financial advice. Markets can and do surprise — these are probabilities, not certainties.