Market Recovery or Temporary Relief? Key Insights on S&P 500 & Gold

/in , , /by

The S&P 500 closed higher for the second consecutive day, marking a positive turn after four weeks of negative results. The index rose 0.6% to 5,675.12, showing signs of recovery after entering correction territory last week. However, Tesla and Nvidia bucked the trend, with Tesla down 5.36% to $236.55 and Nvidia down 1.98% to $119.27.

Key drivers included weaker-than-expected retail sales data, which raised expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Investors are also closely watching the Fed’s two-day meeting starting Tuesday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 successfully pushed through and closed above its previous support level at 5670. This marks the first test of the current rally. The next challenge will be to surpass the early January low at 5775 (red horizontal line), which is expected to present stronger resistance.

These tests are crucial in determining whether this rally represents a ‘buy the dip’ recovery or a ‘sell the rip’ dead cat bounce. Previously, when the S&P 500 was trending within its upward channel, declines within the channel offered ‘buy the dip’ opportunities. However, with the index now below that channel, any bounce must demonstrate strength by breaking through key resistance levels to avoid the risk of further downside.

It’s important to note that losing support at 5,670 has left the S&P 500 vulnerable to potentially testing its next key support level just under 5,400.

Gold Update:

Gold has experienced an impressive surge over the past two and a half years, climbing 85% since November 2022. Currently, it is testing the upper boundary of its uptrend channel (white circle), which suggests that this resistance level is likely to hold. As a result, a pullback or consolidation appears probable. Such a correction would be a healthy development for gold, allowing it to build momentum and gather strength for its next potential move higher.

Navigate Market Volatility with Confidence

The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. As we navigate through this period of uncertainty, it’s crucial to stay informed and make strategic decisions.

Now is the perfect time to subscribe and gain trusted guidance in these uncertain markets. Our mission is to help investors make well-informed decisions when it matters most.

To support you, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference—giving you 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Claim your exclusive discount today!

Stay ahead of the curve—seizing market opportunities starts here!

Martin

Market Update: Key Levels, Tech Rebounds & Apple’s Warning Sign

/in , /by

On Wednesday, March 12, 2025, U.S. stock markets closed with mixed results. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla climbing 7.59%, Palantir rising 7.17%, and Nvidia advancing 6.42%. In contrast, consumer stocks lagged, as Target fell 4.86%, Procter & Gamble declined 2.74%, and Walmart edged down 2.56%.

he S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite saw a rebound, but until proven otherwise, this remains a bounce within a broader downtrend. For the S&P 500 to shift back to a more bullish stance, it must first reclaim its previous support level at 5,670 (upper green line) and then break through its 200-day moving average (200-DMA) at 5,737 (wavy magenta line). Until that happens, this rally is more likely a “sell the rip” dead cat bounce rather than a “buy the dip” recovery.

Previously, when the S&P 500 was trending within its upward channel (yellow lines), each decline within the channel presented a “buy the dip” opportunity. However, now that the index has fallen below that channel, any bounce must prove its strength by breaking through these key resistance levels. Until then, the market remains at risk of further downside.

As highlighted throughout the week, losing support at 5,670 has left the S&P 500 vulnerable to testing its next key support level just under 5,400 (lower green horizontal line).

For those less familiar with technical analysis, think of support and resistance levels like floors and ceilings in a building. When a stock or index falls below a support level (the floor), that level then acts as resistance (the ceiling). To regain a bullish trend, the index must move back above those resistance levels.

Apple Update:

We’ve been closely monitoring Apple as it recently closed below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern. This technical formation consists of three peaks: a central, higher peak (the head) flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders). The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline, a key support level connecting the lows between the peaks.

This breakdown is a significant bearish signal, indicating a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. It suggests that selling pressure has overtaken buying pressure, often leading to further price declines as traders interpret it as confirmation of the pattern. A stronger confirmation occurs if the breakdown happens with increased trading volume.

If this move is validated in the coming days, it could be a major development, highlighting potential weakness in one of the best-performing tech stocks of the past decade.

Navigating Market Volatility

If you’re looking for guidance in navigating these volatile markets, now is an opportune time to subscribe to our services. Our mission is to help investors make informed decisions during uncertain times.

To support this, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference, providing 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Click here to take advantage of these exclusive discounts!

Stay vigilant and be ready to adapt—spotting trend changes is what we do!

Martin

Markets in Motion: S&P 500 & Bitcoin in Focus

/in , /by

Following up on yesterday’s update, the S&P 500 closed lower again today, though the decline was far less severe than yesterday’s bloodbath.  Some of the Magnificent 7 stocks actually closed in the green today.

The market downturn continues to be driven by escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada. President Trump initially announced an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports—raising the total to 50%, effective Wednesday. However, reports emerged near the time of this writing that Ontario is suspending its 25% energy surcharge on  exports for US electricity and that Trump will delay the tariff increase, keeping it at 25%. These constant shifts in trade policy have made equity markets increasingly volatile and uncertain.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 failed to regain its previous support level at 5,670 (green horizontal line) and instead closed down 42 points to 5,572. As highlighted in yesterday’s update, this failure to rally above 5,670 confirms the current bearish tone. If this pattern persists, the next key support level is just below 5,400 (second green horizontal line).

If the S&P 500 can rally and close back above 5,670 tomorrow, a short-term rebound may be possible. While this wouldn’t necessarily signal the market’s ultimate bottom, it could indicate a relief rally. For a more sustained recovery, the index would need to reclaim its position within the uptrend channel (yellow lines) that it fell out of two weeks ago. This would require a rally back to the 6,000 level (red horizontal line,  and red circle).

Bitcoin Update:

Bitcoin broke through its key support level at 92.5K in late February and dropped to a low of 75.4K today before rebounding to 83.2K at the time of this update. While bitcoin is highly volatile, it often serves as a strong indicator of broader market sentiment. A rally in bitcoin suggests a risk-on sentiment in speculative sectors, while a decline signals a risk-off market environment.

Our models indicate that bitcoin could rally back up to the previous 92.5K support level, which will now act as initial resistance. If that resistance holds, bitcoin could fall back toward our target support level of 73K (bottom green horizontal line).

Navigating Market Volatility

Both Trend Technical Trader and Trend Letter anticipated these sharp market declines and issued hedging positions in advance to safeguard subscribers.

If you’re looking for guidance in navigating these volatile markets, now is an opportune time to subscribe to our services. Our mission is to help investors make informed decisions during uncertain times.

To support this, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference, providing 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Click here to take advantage of these exclusive discounts!

Stay vigilant and be ready to adapt—spotting trend changes is what we do!

Martin
Trend News

Markets Tumble – What’s Next for the S&P 500?

/in , /by

The  heat map of the S&P 500 shows widespread declines across sectors, with technology stocks particularly hard hit. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ companies, including Tesla (-15%), Broadcom (-5.34%) and Nvidia (-5.03%) experienced significant losses.

The notable declines experienced by the equity markets were primarily driven by escalating recession fears and uncertainties surrounding US trade policies.​

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell 890 points (2.1%) to 41,911.71.​
  • S&P 500: Dropped 155 points (2.7%)  to 5,614.56.
  • Nasdaq Composite: Plunged 728 points (4%) to 17,468.32.​

These declines were exacerbated by Trump’s recent comments declining to rule out a potential recession, intensifying investor concerns.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 has now dropped below its 200-day moving average (DMA) and key support at 5,670. The critical question is whether this breakdown will be confirmed by a close below this level tomorrow. A confirmed close beneath this support could signal a deeper market correction, with the next key support level just below 5,400 (second green horizontal line).

However, if the S&P 500 manages to rally and close back above 5,670, we could see a short-term rebound. While this wouldn’t necessarily mark the ultimate market low, it would indicate a potential relief rally. To confirm a more sustained recovery, the index would need to reclaim its position within the uptrend channel (yellow lines) that it fell out of two weeks ago. This would require a rally back to the 6,000 level (red horizontal line).

Both Trend Technical Trader and Trend Letter had anticipated these sharp market declines and issued hedging positions to safeguard subscribers in advance.

If you’re looking for guidance in navigating these volatile markets, now is the perfect time to consider subscribing to our services. Our mission remains to help investors make informed decisions during uncertain times.

To support this, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference, providing 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Click here to take advantage of these exclusive discounts!

Keep your head on a swivel!

Martin

Trend News