Market Update: Key Levels, Tech Rebounds & Apple’s Warning Sign

On Wednesday, March 12, 2025, U.S. stock markets closed with mixed results. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla climbing 7.59%, Palantir rising 7.17%, and Nvidia advancing 6.42%. In contrast, consumer stocks lagged, as Target fell 4.86%, Procter & Gamble declined 2.74%, and Walmart edged down 2.56%.

he S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite saw a rebound, but until proven otherwise, this remains a bounce within a broader downtrend. For the S&P 500 to shift back to a more bullish stance, it must first reclaim its previous support level at 5,670 (upper green line) and then break through its 200-day moving average (200-DMA) at 5,737 (wavy magenta line). Until that happens, this rally is more likely a “sell the rip” dead cat bounce rather than a “buy the dip” recovery.

Previously, when the S&P 500 was trending within its upward channel (yellow lines), each decline within the channel presented a “buy the dip” opportunity. However, now that the index has fallen below that channel, any bounce must prove its strength by breaking through these key resistance levels. Until then, the market remains at risk of further downside.

As highlighted throughout the week, losing support at 5,670 has left the S&P 500 vulnerable to testing its next key support level just under 5,400 (lower green horizontal line).

For those less familiar with technical analysis, think of support and resistance levels like floors and ceilings in a building. When a stock or index falls below a support level (the floor), that level then acts as resistance (the ceiling). To regain a bullish trend, the index must move back above those resistance levels.

Apple Update:

We’ve been closely monitoring Apple as it recently closed below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern. This technical formation consists of three peaks: a central, higher peak (the head) flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders). The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline, a key support level connecting the lows between the peaks.

This breakdown is a significant bearish signal, indicating a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. It suggests that selling pressure has overtaken buying pressure, often leading to further price declines as traders interpret it as confirmation of the pattern. A stronger confirmation occurs if the breakdown happens with increased trading volume.

If this move is validated in the coming days, it could be a major development, highlighting potential weakness in one of the best-performing tech stocks of the past decade.

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Stay vigilant and be ready to adapt—spotting trend changes is what we do!

Martin