It’s All Connected: Oil, Rates and the AI Shake-Out

On Friday, October 23, I joined Jim Goddard on This Week In Money to talk about what’s driving the markets right now. Here are my notes and the charts we discussed, so you can follow along at your own pace.

The big theme: it’s all connected. Oil tipped the first domino, and every market is feeling it. Bellow is the transcript from the interview along with the charts discussed. You can listen to the interview here.

1. There’s been a lot of action in many sectors this week. What’s really driving these markets?

Oil is the culprit: WTI oil up over $4.00 here on Friday to $103.50, global Brent near $118, on Middle East supply fears
Still climbing: In a parallel uptrend channel since the $67 low in July. Ceiling near $115.
A tax on everyone: Oil has averaged about $95 since February. Gas, diesel and heating oil all squeeze consumers.
What’s next: Potentials sees another $20–25 a barrel after the US midterms.

‘Oil is the first domino.’ As long as it keeps making higher lows above $93.50, the pressure on stocks and the Fed won’t let up.

2. Oil keeps rising, but interest rates are falling. What’s the bond market telling us?

The chart: A Head & Shoulder top is confirmed. A close below the 50-day average (the average over the last 50 trading days, about 4.97%) targets about 4.77%.
Inflation not ruled out: Markets still see about an 84% chance the Fed raises rates by year-end.
A slowdown bet: Oil is a tax on consumers. Add higher rates, and growth slows. Bonds do well when growth slows.
5% is real competition: A US Treasury pays about 5%, guaranteed. Stocks earn about the same, so why take the risk? Some money is moving out of stocks to lock in 5%.

Remember: when bond yields fall, bond prices are rising. Falling yields mean investors are buying bonds.

50-DMA is the line in the sand.’ A close below it says money is still running from stocks to bonds.

3. The S&P 500 is falling again. Is its bull flag in trouble?

[INSERT CHART: S&P 500, daily (Friday morning, Oct 23)]

Bull flag since August is still intact: Sideways since August, 7,550 to 7,830. Now near 7,640
Cracks showing: It has dropped below its near-term uptrend from the July low, and below its 50-day average (about 7,700).
Key Support: The long-term uptrend, near 7,440, so $200 below today’s level
Below 7,550: The next floor is the long-term uptrend, near 7,440.
To repair it: It needs to get back above 7,700. Until then, the bull flag is on shaky ground.

‘The S&P’s uptrend from the July low is broken.’ It’s a warning, not a breakdown. The real test is the bottom of the box at 7,550 & then the Key Support at $7.440.

4. The Nasdaq is falling. Why aren’t all AI stocks moving as one?

Down about 2.6%: The Nasdaq fell Thursday on AI worries after Meta’s results, and slipped a bit further Friday.
Investors want results: They no longer buy everything AI. They want companies making real money from it.
On the floor: Support is near 25,940, where it bounced in August and September.
Broken: It’s below its 50-day average (about 26,600) and its uptrend from March, which is now a ceiling near 27,000.

‘Tech is hanging by a thread at 25,940.’ Lose that floor or support, and the next stop is about 24,400, roughly 6% lower.

The AI connection: the tide is going out

- Picture a rising tide: When a big new theme appears, money floods in and lifts every boat in the harbour. Good company or bad, they all rise together.
- That’s how AI traded: Nvidia, Microsoft, a tiny server producer, a struggling software firm that just added ‘AI’ to its press release. Investors bought them all, no questions asked.
- Now the tide is going out: The question has changed from ‘Is this AI?’ to ‘Is this company actually making money from AI?’

‘When the tide goes out, you find out which boats have holes.’ Owning ‘AI’ isn’t enough anymore. You need the right AI companies.

5. Gold just slipped below $4,000. How low can it go?

Below $4,000: Gold was about $3,997 Friday morning, after Thursday’s break of its rising support line.
Closing in: Key support at $3,926, the summer lows, is less than 2% away.
Ceilings above: The 50-day average near $4,300, then the falling resistance line near $4,400.
Why: High oil fuels Fed rate-hike talk. Gold doesn’t pay a yield, so higher rates make it less attractive.

‘$3,926 is gold’s last line of defence.’ If it breaks, it opens the door to $3,500., which could be a great buying opportunity

6. Silver is back where its big run began. Will it hold?

At major support: Silver was about $53.90 Friday morning, at the top of its $50–53 support zone.
Where it all started: This zone launched the run from late November to the January 29 high of $120.
Supports broken: It’s below $56 and below its rising trendline.
Double whammy: Like gold, silver pays no yield, so higher rates hurt. And as an industrial metal, it feels slowdown fears too.

‘Silver is back at the launch pad.’ $50–53 is where the big run began. This is where buyers need to show up.

7. Gold and stocks are cracking. Why is Bitcoin holding up?

Holding on: Bitcoin was about $81,660 Friday morning, up slightly after Thursday’s drop.
The floor: About $81,000. It has held every test since mid-September.
On the 50-day: It’s sitting right on its 50-day average, about $81,800.
The ceiling: About $86,800, where it has been turned back since September.

‘Gold cracked. Bitcoin is still standing on its floor.’ Hold $81,000, and it can retest $86,800. Lose it, and $75,700 is next.

8. The US dollar ran hard this year. Is it running out of steam?

The run: The dollar climbed about 7% from February to nearly 103 this month.
Failed breakout: It pushed above 101.9, then slipped back below it. It’s now about 101.7.
Rate tug-of-war: A Fed hike would help the dollar, but the odds of one next week fell to about 8%, and bond yields are falling.
Floors below: The 50-day average near 100.5, then the uptrend line near 99.3.

‘The dollar’s breakout failed.’ Back below 101.94, it’s losing steam. The next test is the 50-day average near 100.5. But if bonds start to selloff gain, & yields rise, that tends to attract foreign investors who want to lock in that higher yield. They then need to convert their foreign currency to US dollars, creating a demand for the dollar. It’s all connected

9. Why is the loonie suddenly so strong?

The bounce: The loonie is about 71.5 US cents, up from near 70 in early October.
False break: It slipped below its long uptrend, then climbed right back. It’s now above its 50-day average too.
Why: Oil above $100, a softer US dollar, and bets the Bank of Canada could raise rates next week.
Levels: The ceiling is the summer highs, 72.6–72.8 cents. The floor is near 70.6.

‘The same oil that hurts stocks is lifting the loonie.’ It’s back above its 50-day average. Next stop: 72.6–72.8 cents.

10. Paul Tudor Jones says he’ll be short all of 2027. What’s the market telling you?

What he said: 2027 ‘is going to be really, really challenging for the stock market.’ His plan: ‘I’ll be short the whole year.’ (Short means betting the market will fall.)
His reason: A flood of new shares, from SpaceX and maybe Anthropic and OpenAI. He compares it to the dot-com bust of 1998–2002.
Our take on mixed signals: Bonds are rallying, which usually lifts stocks and gold. Instead, stocks, gold and silver are all under pressure.
Weak breadth: A few big names are carrying the market, like a hockey team leaning on one star. If he gets hurt, the team is in trouble.

‘You don’t have to bet against the market, or swing at every pitch.’ When the signals are this mixed, flat is a position, as is cash and patience.

11. You say be choosy. How have our services handled 2026?

Ahead of the oil move: Trend Letter and Trend Technical Trader were positioned in energy well before the war in Iran.
Locking in AI gains: Trend Disruptors was up an average of about 61%. We just took profits on AMD (+424%), Shopify (+216%) and Nokia (+135%), and still own all three.
Cutting losers: We sold authID, UiPath, C3.ai and NXP Semiconductors.
Note: Have a strategy to Protect your portfolio: In addition to offering long positions, our Trend Technical Trader service has been warning of a tech collapse since June. It has been offering several hedging strategies subscribers can use to protect their portfolios.

‘And remember, cash is a position.’ Raising cash lowers risk today and leaves money ready to buy at better prices.

12. What’s happening in DeFi, and why should investors pay attention?

Last month I highlighted how the mainstream finance world is getting behind DeFi. Here’s a quick primer, then the latest news.

The basics

DeFi: short for Decentralized Finance, financial services built on blockchains instead of running through a single bank.
Real-world assets (RWAs): things like a stock, a government or corporate bond, commercial real estate, fine art or commodities.
Tokenization: creating a digital version of that asset that lives on a blockchain, so it can move faster and settle instantly. Tokenization is the plumbing behind DeFi.

The latest news

Real use, not speculation: tokenized real-world asset deposits tripled to $7.4 billion over the past year, driven by investors using tokens for practical purposes like earning steady interest (CoinShares).
New US rules: the OCC (the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, part of the US Treasury) finalized rules for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act. Stablecoins are digital dollars designed to hold a steady $1 value. The rules take effect January 18, 2027.
Washington is on board: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the GENIUS Act a ‘watershed moment’ for American finance. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has said he wants to make the US the ‘crypto capital of the world’.
Deutsche Bank: is launching custody (safekeeping) for Bitcoin, Ether and major stablecoins for institutional clients in Germany, with plans to expand to Asia in 2027.
UK banks: Barclays, NatWest, HSBC and others have tested tokenized deposits (bank-issued digital cash) in live transactions, including remortgages and payments between banks.

This isn’t fringe crypto talk anymore. It’s coming from the biggest institutions in finance. Our DeFi Digest will cover these developments to help you work your way through this new financial revolution. A new issue is out soon. Click here to view more

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Prices and chart levels are as of Friday morning, October 23, 2026. This is general commentary for education, not personal investment advice. Past results don’t guarantee future returns.