Posts by The Trend Letter

Market Musings – March 15/17

1. Inflation

 The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.1% in February. Even though this was the smallest month-over-month increase since the summer, prices are now rising at a 2.7% annualized rate.

CPI

2. Bonds

With inflation rising at an annualized rate of 2.7%, the US Federal Reserve did the expected today, raising the Fed Fund Rate 25 basis points. The market was expecting this rate hike and was looking for three more later this year, but the Fed surprised by indicating they were forecasting only two more rate hikes this year.

This less ‘hawkish’ outlook juiced the bond market, pushing bond prices higher, and yields lower. 

10-year_bond

3. Currencies

With the Fed forecasting a slower pace of rate hikes the US dollar sold off.

USdollar0315

A declining US dollar pushed up the Euro, Yen, Canadian dollar, and most other currencies.

Euro0315

4. Equities

With a less hawkish forecast from the Fed, investors poured back into stocks, with the S&P 500 up almost 20 points today.

SPX0315

5. Gold

With a weaker US dollar, gold and silver moved higher, with gold up 17.00 and silver up .48.

GLD

6. Oil

The International Energy Agency reported that US oil stocks declined for the first time in ten weeks, They also said that OPEC compliance with their production cut deal reached 91% in February. Combined with the US dollar weakening on a more ‘dovish’ Fed forecast of two more rate hikes versus three, oil rallied 3.48% today.

Oil0315

Stay tuned!

More than 1 million borrowers defaulted on their student loans last year

From Market Watch….

Even as the economy continues to improve, student loan borrowers are still struggling to cope with their debts, a new analysis indicates.

Roughly 1.1. million borrowers entered default on their Direct Loans, a type of federal student loan, last year, about the same as the previous year, according to an analysis of publicly available government student loan data by Rohit Chopra, a senior fellow at the Consumer Federal of America, a network of more than 250 nonprofit consumer groups. Overall, there were 4.2 million borrowers in default in 2016, up 17% from 3.6 million the year before, as some borrowers exited default while others remained in the red.

The analysis likely underestimates the number of federal student loan borrowers in default as it doesn’t account for borrowers who are in default on types of federal student loans other than Direct Loans.

Even borrowers who aren’t in default, appear to be struggling, Chopra’s analysis indicates. The total amount owed by federal student loan borrowers has grown 16.5% since 2013 from $26,300 to $30,650. Though it’s hard to say exactly why that’s the case, it may be because even those borrowers who are current on their loans aren’t making payments high enough to cover the interest on their debt, allowing the balances to build.

“Despite a booming stock market and falling unemployment, student loan borrowers in today’s economy are still struggling,” said Chopra, the former student loan ombudsman at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, the Washington, D.C.-based government agency. “We should be seeing more improvements given the broader economic environment. This raises the question about whether things will truly get better in the absence of broader reform.”

The findings come as policy makers, higher education officials and student loan borrowers wait to learn how the Trump administration will approach the nation’s $1.3 trillion student loan challenge. The consequences of defaulting on a federal student loan are severe for borrowers: They can have their wages, Social Security checks and tax refunds garnished. The government garnished more than $160 million in wages over unpaid student debt in last quarter alone.

Read complete article at Market Watch

Headlines – March 15/17

  • Fed expected to raise rates as US economy flexes muscle. Read story
  • US stocks, oil rise as dollar slips before Fed. Read story
  • Trump paid $38 million in taxes in 2005. Read story
  • Dutch vote in test of anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe. Read story
  • Early voter turnout high in Netherlands elections. Read story
  • Does Saudi King have power over US stock market? Read story
  • GM will re-hire 500 Michigan workers slated for layoff. Read story
  • Why Republican’s support for Trump is ‘sky-high.’ Read story
  • Canadian consumer debt hits $1.72T amid threat of ‘pain’ from rate creep. Read story
  • Hannity: NBC on ‘political jihad’ against Trump. Read story
  • Ireland is surprised by the number of British banks looking to relocate after Brexit. Read story
  • US jobless rate down, but wage growth slows. Read story
  • Poll: Worries about race relations hits record high. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Headlines – March 13/17

  • Wall St flat as investors prepare for potential rate hike. Read story
  • Oil touches three-month lows, as US supply swells. Read story
  • Intel makes $15 billion bet on driverless cars. Read story
  • Wall St has found its next big short. Read story
  • Central banks are taking off the market’s training wheels. Read story
  • Brexit prompts Scottish independence push amid UK ‘intransigence’. Read story
  • Iceland to end all capital controls. Read story
  • Fed’s on thin ice in a Trump administration, says expert. Read story
  • Japan to send largest warship to South China Sea. Read story
  • The inventor of the web, Tim Berners-Lee, outline its biggest threats. Read story 
  • Texas legislator proposes penalizing men for masturbating to shake up health debate. Read story
  • China makes it illegal to insult ‘heroes and martyrs’. Read story
  • Turkey-Netherlans row: Dutch warn citizens after Erdogan threat. Read story
  • The most striking thing about the WikiLeaks CIA data dump is how little most people cared. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Headlines – March 9/17

  • Wall St opens flat with focus on jobs report, rate meeting. Read story
  • US crude prices slump below 50.00 as inventories build. Read story
  • Trump sends B-52 Nuclear bombers to S. Korea. Read story
  • Dimon says Trump has reawakened ‘animal spirits’ in the US. Read story
  • ECB’s Draghi ‘more optimistic’ on eurozone outlook. Read story
  • WikiLeaks exposes massive CIA hacking tools targeting consumer electronics. Read story
  • 10 best and 10 worst stocks in eight-year bull market. Read story
  • US consumer comfort just hit highest level in a decade. Read story
  • The optimist’s guide to the robot apocalypse. Read story
  • Bill Gross says investors should not be ‘allured’ by ‘Trump bull market.’ Read story
  • Manhattan rents fall for every apartment size. Read story
  • Mexico illegal crossing to US ‘drop 40%.’ Read story
  • IBM has figured out how to store data on a single atom. Read story
  • Drones threatened nuclear facilities. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

Headlines – March 6/17

  • Wall St opens lower on geopolitics, Trump’s comments. Read story
  • Japan moves to highest alert level as N. Korea fire missiles. Read story
  • JP Morgan: “In the near-term we see increasing  risk of a selloff.” Read story
  • Bitcoin more valuable than gold. Read story
  • PSA targets Opel turnaround as GM exits Europe. Read story
  • Apple leak reveals massive, expensive new iPhone. Read story
  • Deutsche Bank shares hit by cash call. Read story
  • Spokeswoman: ‘I don’t think’ Trump accepts Comey’s denial of wiretap claims. Read story
  • China’s 2017 defense budget rises 7%: Xinhua. Read story
  • IBM thinks it’s ready to take quantum computing into an actual business. Read story
  • China cracks down on people it deems are ‘threats to state.’ Read story
  • French bonds decline as Juppe stays out of presidential race. Read story
  • Le Pen could win in France warns Hollande. Read story
  • Why super-smart people may be drawn to a life of crime. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!

This house was 3D printed in 24 hours and cost just $10,000

From The Telegraph

An on-site house 3D printed in Russia offers a glimpse into what the future of construction might look like.

Apis Cotr, 3D printing specialists based in Russia and San Francisco, say the walls of the building were printed and painted in just 24 hours.

3D printing a home usually involves creating the parts off-site and constructing the building later, however, Apis Cotr uses a mobile printer to print their apartments on-site.

“Printing of self-bearing walls, partitions and building envelope were done in less than a day: pure machine time of printing amounted to 24 hours,” the company said.

Once the house has been completed, the printer is removed with a crane-manipulator and presumably the roof is then added, followed by the interior fixtures and fittings.  Read complete story

3Dinside

 

Headlines – March 3/17

  • US service sector grows at fastest pace in a year and a half. Read story
  • Fed and ECB go their separate ways. Read story
  • Euro area economy expands most since 2011 as recovery broadens. Read story
  • How wearable technology can transform healthcare. Read story
  • Wendy’s responding to rising minimum wage by replacing humans with machines. Read story
  • Soaring Hong Kong office rents are now triple those of Singapore. Read story
  • China provides calm for markets ahead of potential Fed rate hike. Read story
  • Spotify hits 50 million subscribers. Read story
  • Trump defends under-fire Attorney General Sessions. Read story
  • Robots sent to study Fukushima nuclear site keep dying. Read story
  • California high school made $24 million on Snap IPO. Read story
  • How to make your kid good at anything, according to a world expert on peak performance. Read story
  •  Amazon plans for ‘future human settlement’ of the moon. Read story
  •  On the lighter side. Check it out!

Pay attention to these charts

While we are long-term bullish on the equity markets, we are cautious here based on some technical indicators that we pay attention to.  As we can see on the following chart, the S&P 500 is overbought here based on the Bollinger  Bands and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators.

SPX030217

On the next chart of the Russell 2000 Small Cap index, we can see that since the peak of the Tech bubble in 2000, the Russel 2000 has formed a long-term megaphone pattern (higher highs and lower lows). But more interesting is that in the shorter-term we see a smaller megaphone within the larger megaphone.

This smaller megaphone pattern warns of a potential significant correction in the Small Cap stocks.

Russ2000

Typically, when a significant top forms in the equity markets, the large cap stocks (Dow Industrials and S&P 500) continue to move higher, while the small caps (Russell 2000) tend to fall behind. This suggests that we could continue to rally here until May, and then see a potential strong sell-off.

Another chart that suggests caution is the Insider Buy/Sell chart we see below. As we can see, the insider selling has spiked higher over the last week. Insiders typically sell when they think a top is near. This does not mean we are headed for a massive crash, but that we are due for a correction.

Insider_selling

We continue to hold our long positions, but have sent subscribers a couple of insurance trades to protect us in the event the markets turn against us. We will be watching for that scenario where the large cap stocks (Dow and S&P 500) continue to make new highs, while the small caps (Russell 2000) do not.

Stay tuned!

Headlines – Feb. 28/17

  • Wall St slips as financial, discretionary stocks drag. Read story
  • Traders glued to these Trump stock trades ahead of address. Read story
  • Consumer confidence hits 15-year high. Read story
  • Mom and Pop investors are behind this historic market rally. Read story
  • Greek private sector bank deposits drop in Jan. on review jitters. Read story
  • French inflation rate unexpectedly drops, ending months of gains. Read story
  • Oscars tourist star ‘Gary from Chicago’ was just released from prison after serving 22 years for ‘several felonies’ including attempted rape. Read story
  • Indian economic growth slows to 7%, still ahead of expectations. Read story
  • Vietnam’s ‘bikini airline’ takes off in public listing. Read story
  • Door knocks in dark: The Canadian town on front line of Trump migrant crackdown. Read story
  • DNA tests reveal Subway’s oven-roasted chicken is only 50% chicken. Read story
  • SpaceX to fly passengers on private trip around moon in 2018. Read story
  • Tweeting accountant blamed for Oscar Best Picture blunder. Read story
  • Active environmentalist Leonardo Dicaprio flew eyebrow artist 7,500 miles to do his brows for Oscars. Read story
  • On the lighter side. Check it out!