In market analysis, closely monitoring industry leaders is vital, particularly in flourishing sectors like Artificial Intelligence (AI). As AI continues its rapid evolution, drawing parallels to the internet’s growth becomes increasingly evident. Just as the internet’s development unfolded in stages—from the establishment of hardware infrastructure such as modems, personal computers, and fiber optic cables, to the rise of software dominance, and finally, the global presence of high-speed internet—AI is following a similar trajectory.

At the forefront of AI’s hardware infrastructure is ASML, a Dutch semiconductor giant renowned for its cutting-edge chip manufacturing technology tailored for AI applications. Recent earnings reports from ASML have revealed potential hurdles in semiconductor demand, with bookings falling below anticipated levels. This development has prompted market observers to scrutinize the underlying factors contributing to this slowdown, as it could signal shifts in the broader semiconductor landscape.

Here is how the market reacted to ASML’s earnings report:

Meanwhile, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) stands out as a pivotal player in the AI sector, boasting the title of the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturer. Specializing in the production and packaging of semiconductors, TSM plays a crucial role in meeting the flourishing demand for advanced AI chips. Despite witnessing strong demand for AI-related chips, TSM has also observed a slowdown in other sectors, such as smartphones and automotive semiconductors. This wide angle perspective highlights the multifaceted nature of the semiconductor industry, where fluctuations in demand across various sectors can influence overall market dynamics.

Here is how the market reacted to TSM’s earnings report:

While the AI trend remains robust, as evidenced by the performance of industry leaders like ASML and TSM, the importance of managing market expectations cannot be overstated. Investors must navigate potential market volatility with caution, recognizing the inherent complexities and uncertainties.

The good news is that we have many stocks on our watch list and once the current sell-off completes, we will have some great buying opportunities.

Stay tuned!

As an investment newsletter, dedicated to great investment ideas such as trend disruptors, we scour the market to identify companies poised to become technology disruptors. In a recent update, we introduced to our subscribers three new entities that align with our criteria. Today, we shine a light on one of those companies:  GSI Technologies

Using AI technology requires vast amounts of data to be processed quickly and efficiently in order to be useful in applications that depend on it. In the AI world there are huge amounts of data in play, but processing that much data in the standard cache-to-processor chips can be too slow.  The illustration below shows how standard server processor cores struggle with large datasets, due to the narrow connection with the large on-chip memory.

GSI Technologies, a recent pick for TREND DISRUPTORS subscribers has developed a first-generation chip (GEMINI-l) to speed things up, and are developing the next version (GEMINI-ll), aiming to bring this solution to market in the second half of 2024.

GSIT is a leading provider of semiconductor memory solutions for in-place associative computing applications. The company deals directly with high-growth markets like AI and high-performance computing, which includes both natural language processing and computer vision.

To be clear, this is not traditional processing. GSIT’s Gemini technology uses associative processing unit (APU) products focused on applications using similarity search, which are used in visual search queries for things like e-commerce, computer vision, drug discovery, and cybersecurity. Of course, advanced AI chip solutions can serve many markets, like networking, telecommunications, and the military.

GSIT has just announced they have completed the tape-out for Gemini-II and will evaluate the first silicon chip by the end of 2023.  Gemini features millions of cores that can all access memory at once, allowing a much greater flow of data, generating much faster results.

Gemini-I APU’s architecture features parallel data processing with two million-bit processors per chip. The massive in-memory processing reduces computation time from minutes to milliseconds, while significantly reducing power consumption, all in a scalable format. A comparison of leading AI chips, shows that the Gemini chip excels when compared to products from Intel, Nvidia, and Graphcore.

Gemini-I excels at large (billion item) database search applications, like facial recognition, drug discovery, Elasticsearch, and object detection. Gemini-II will bring significant performance enhancements over Gemini-I with more than ten times the processing performance with eight times the memory density compared to Gemini-I. Gemini-II’s combination of high processing power, large built-in memory, tremendous bandwidth, reduced power consumption, and latency, provides a best-in-class solution for AI applications.

Gemini-II contains 1 million Bit Processors in six megabytes of associative compute memory tightly connected to 96 megabytes of distributed SRAM with a huge 46 terabyte per second bandwidth. The Gemini APU implements bit-granular processing, which allows users fully flexible cycle by cycle data format operation, an inherent advantage versus other parallel processors. Gemini-II is a complete package that includes a DDR4 controller and external interfaces for PCIe Gen4 by 16, and PCIe Gen4 by 4. This integrated solution offers substantial processing capabilities, being suitable for both low power data center expansion and enabling data center functions at the edge. This empowers local execution of computationally intensive tasks, increasing the capabilities of edge applications like advanced driver assistance systems for automobiles, and HPC in delivery drones, autonomous robots, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites.

“This major achievement showcases our continued commitment to pushing the boundaries of AI chip technology,” said Lee-Lean Shu, CEO and Chairman of GSI Technology. “We’re in talks with a leading Cloud Service Provider to further explore the APU architecture benefits highlighted by Gemini-II. Large language models, such as ChatGPT, Microsoft BING, and Google’s Bard, are pushing natural language processing boundaries. We’ve just begun to tap into their transformative potential across many industries and applications. Abundant opportunities await Gemini-II and future APU implementations in the AI market.”

Founded in 1995, GSI Technology, Inc. is a leading provider of semiconductor memory solutions. The Company recently launched radiation-hardened memory products for extreme environments in space and the Gemini® Associative Processing Unit (APU), a memory-centric design that delivers significant performance advantages for diverse AI applications. The Gemini APU architecture removes the I/O bottleneck between the processors and memory arrays by performing massive parallel searches directly in the memory array where data is stored. The novel architecture delivers performance-over-power ratio improvements compared to CPU, GPU, and DRAM for applications like image detection, speech recognition, e-commerce recommendation systems, and more. Gemini may be the ideal solution for edge applications with a scalable format, small footprint, and low power consumption where rapid, accurate responses are critical.

GSIT has announced its receipt of a Phase I SBIR contract in the 23.5 cohort by AFWERX, which is a United States Air Force program with the goal of fostering a culture of innovation within the service. Encompassing a number of programs supported with relatively small amounts of funding, the initiative is intended to circumvent bureaucracy and engage new entrepreneurs in Air Force programs. Under this contract, GSIT will perform a feasibility study to adapt, modify, and enhance its commercially proven Gemini® APU to propel Air and Space Force computing at the edge. They are embarking on a mission to explore high-performance edge processing. At the heart of this collaboration is the Gemini® APU, a dual-purpose compute-in-memory chip crafted to unleash the potential of various AI applications, including inference and high-performance computing workloads. While the APU is well suited for data center applications, its exceptional power efficiency will allow GSI to pursue this remarkable capability to the edge as well.

Given all of the above, it is no surprise that TREND DISRUPTORS has an eye focused on this company, as GSIT has the potential to be a major Trend Disruptor in the hugely Disruptive AI market. The goal of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover and monitor technical developments that have the potential to DISRUPT market sectors. We look for the best ideas, and we generate actionable investment recommendations for subscribers. As a general rule, these recommendations are speculative, and we advise caution, discretion, and thorough research. We strive to identify investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well-informed investor.

Stay tuned!!

As the world strives to move toward greener energy, it has become clear that the production, harnessing, and storing of green energy is not all that easy or effective.  The currently favoured green energy sources are solar, wind, and battery, with a few others, such as wave generators, making some inroads.  They are all intended to produce and/or store, electricity. The challenge is for these sources to be tapped in a way that is also “green”, such as the manufacture of solar panels, wind generators, and batteries. The manufacturing and installation processes currently have a significant carbon footprint, rendering them less “green” than you might expect and want.

Battery technology has developed in leaps and bounds over the last few years, and the current champ is the lithium-ion battery that powers our phones, laptops, and cars. These batteries are built with rare earth minerals, leading to more and more exploration and mining, trying to keep up to the rapidly increasing demand. Mining exploration and operation is not a “green” industry and may not ever be, so can there be a new kind of battery that does not require as large a carbon footprint to produce and store electricity?

Researchers at TU Wien, (Vienna University of Technology), have made a breakthrough in battery technology. This innovative battery concept has led to a patent application, filed in collaboration with partners in Spain.

The new battery is called an oxygen-ion battery and it purports to solve several issues associated with lithium-ion batteries. The advantages include:

• No need for rare elements
• No fire hazards
• No irreversible capacity diminution over time, i.e. longer life
• Increased durability

The oxygen-ion battery may not match the energy density of its lithium-ion rivals, but its other advantages may make it the overall winner. Part of the longer life advantage is the ability of the oxygen-ion battery to be regenerated. The fabrication does not require scarce elements and uses non-combustible materials. “We have had a lot of experience with ceramic materials that can be used for fuel cells for quite some time. That gave us the idea of investigating whether such materials might also be suitable for making a battery” said Alexander Schmid from the Institute for Chemical Technologies and Analytics at TU Wien.

The ceramic materials being studied can absorb and release doubly charged oxygen ions, and when an electric voltage is applied, the oxygen ions migrate from one ceramic material to another, generating electric current. The basic principle is similar to the lithium-ion battery, but ceramics are non-flammable and can be adapted in useful ways, such as replacing elements that are difficult to obtain. The current prototype of the oxygen-ion battery uses lanthanum, a material that is not exactly rare, but research is underway to find a cheaper and more common material. Cobalt and nickel, which are used in many batteries, are not used at all.

Long life may be the most important advantage of the oxygen-ion battery. In many batteries there is the problem that at some point the charge carriers cannot move, and therefore can no longer be used to generate electricity. The overall capacity of the battery decreases after many charge cycles, rendering the battery to be downright useless or very frustrating – a serious problem for your phone, your car, your laptop, whatever. A new battery can be installed but in doing so, the carbon footprint is increased again, making it even less ‘GREEN’. The oxygen-ion battery can be regenerated, meaning that if oxygen is lost due to side reactions, the loss can be simply compensated for by oxygen from the ambient air.

This new battery concept is not intended for phones or EV’s, because it only achieves about one third of the energy density of a lithium-ion battery, and it runs at temperatures between 200 and 400 degrees Celsius. It is, however, extremely interesting for large scale energy storage, such as is produced at wind and solar energy facilities. A dedicated building packed with oxygen-ion energy storage modules could be feasible, as the lower energy density and high operating temperatures may not play a decisive role or can be effectively mitigated. The advantages of oxygen-ion batteries in this scenario would be long service life, lower production costs, durability, and no fire hazard, which sounds like a winning combination of attributes.

The goal of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover and monitor technical developments that have the potential to DISRUPT market sectors. We look for the best ideas, and generate actionable investment recommendations for subscribers. As a general rule, these recommendations are speculative, and we advise caution, discretion, and thorough research. We strive to identify investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well-informed investor.

Stay tuned!!

The search for more and more materials for manufacturing lithium-ion batteries is reaching a critical point, so it may be no surprise that re-claiming and re-using materials from expended, existing batteries is an area of emerging technology that is heating up rapidly. There are several developments around the globe that aim to perfect reclamation technologies to extract all valuable materials from expended batteries. Right priced re-usable materials are needed to meet the increasing demand for more lithium-ion batteries, being driven by the major uptick in electric vehicle production and sales, as well as the ongoing demand for Smartphone and laptop batteries.

The standard existing technology for reclaiming battery materials is a process called pyrometallurgy, which involves heating the batteries in order retrieve metals, but this process generally yields only cobalt, sometimes nickel. What is also produced from the expended batteries is lithium. Currently, lithium recovered using a standard battery reclamation process usually ends up in waste slag and is often just thrown away, as it is difficult and expensive to transform into lithium carbonate for re-use in new batteries. Estimates indicate that lithium carbonate needs to be produced at a cost of about $7,000 a tonne to be competitive with newly mined lithium. With lithium prices rising steadily, the price / cost target looks more and more attractive and achievable.

In Europe, one company is using a heat and chemical process (hydrometallurgy) to retrieve, from slag, rare earths and lithium, as well as cobalt, nickel, and copper alloys.  There are a few companies in North America processing lithium-ion batteries, reclaiming lithium, cobalt, and copper. Another company claims to have a patented closed loop process that enables “Zero Loss” battery production where 100% of cathode materials scrap can be recovered in-house, and made ready for new battery production. They claim to have a minimal hydrometallurgical process that yields a nickel manganese cobalt oxide that can be used as a precursor for direct integration into the manufacture of new lithium-ion batteries. Also, an Australian company is preparing a pilot project in Canada, and others are developing processes to safely and efficiently extract a range of valuable minerals, such as copper, manganese, aluminum, lithium, and cobalt.

Even with all this onrushing technology development, it may not be ramped up soon enough to keep pace with the surging demand for more and more lithium-ion batteries. Another factor in reclaiming materials from expended batteries is the limited supply of expended batteries. Currently there are recycling facilities where consumers can turn in their used batteries, but without an incentive will consumers make the effort to collect and turn in their used batteries? Will used Smartphone and laptop batteries be turned in for recycling or will they end up in the landfill?  So, when we ask who needs sustainable cathodes, we think the answer is … we do!!

The goal of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover and monitor technical developments that have the potential to DISRUPT a market sector. We look for the best ideas, and generate actionable investment recommendations for subscribers. As a general rule, these recommendations are speculative, and we advise caution, discretion, and thorough research. We strive to identify investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well-informed investor.

Stay tuned!!