Market Charts – February 8/22

The  S&P 500 was up ~38 points today, but the markets are still quite nervous. Watch the 4600 level as near-term resistance as our model sees this as a key short-term resistance level and if we can’t push past this level  we could see the market start to break down with a potential near-term low in the next 6 weeks.

Oil has been on an absolute tear in the last year+ but is now hitting some strong technical resistance. The uptrend line (red diagonal)  has shown to be strong resistance the last three times oil challenged it. Is this a near-term top? It certainly could be.  If so, the first level of support would be 85.00, and then there is a big gap down to 65.00. Any invasion of Ukraine by Russia would negate any correction and most likely give oil a push higher, although much of a potential Russian invasion is already priced in.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury is approaching 2%. January 2020 was the last time we saw the 10-year Treasury yields were above 2%. There has  been over $8 trillion of new debt added (government & corporations) since the pandemic. If the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hits 2%, with the Fed looking to raise rate, investors are likely to get very nervous.

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Stay tuned!