Market Notes

Seasonal signals point to impending pullback!

As an investment newsletter, our commitment is to empower investors with information that facilitates well-informed and successful decision-making. When investing in stocks, grasping the inherent trends within a market cycle becomes of vital importance. Charles Dow, a foundational figure at Dow Jones & Company and a significant contributor to the creation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), consistently drew parallels between the dynamics of the stock market and ‘market tides,’ illuminating distinctive patterns and movements. Dow’s philosophy rested on the notion that the market, much like the rhythmic ebb and flow of sea tides, experiences regular and predictable cycles.

We are presenting a chart that has been shared with our subscribers recently, preparing them for an anticipated short-term correction in the markets. Examining the chart reveals a robust period for the S&P 500 from early October to year-end, with a recurring pattern of a short-term correction in early December, as highlighted by the pink circle. Following this correction, the market typically resumes its upward bullish trajectory.

One contributing factor to this early December correction is investors engaging in tax-loss selling. This strategy involves selling underperforming investments to offset capital gains from those that have appreciated. It provides an opportunity to leverage investments expected to lag in performance, offsetting realized capital gains before the market rebounds. In Canada, according to the CRA, the last day for tax-loss selling in 2023 is December 27, while in the US, it is December 29, according to information from the IRS.

NOTE: It’s important to note that investors should consult with experts or review relevant tax documents for comprehensive answers, as the information provided here should not be considered tax advice.

Another significant reason for the correction in early December is the obligation of mutual funds to distribute capital gains, dividends, and interest income for the year. While these distributions commence in late November, a substantial number occur in the initial two weeks of December.

With the market potentially overbought (see RSI on bottom of chart) in the short term and volume declining, additional selling pressure from mutual fund distributions could momentarily impact prices. However, this does not signify the end of the bull market; rather, it suggests the necessity for a healthy reset to attract buyers back into the market. This suggests that if one has not participated in the current rally and is inclined to enter now, history suggests that a potential pullback would offer a more opportune moment to increase exposure in the markets.

The near-term support level (red line) for a correction is anticipated to be around the 100-day moving average at 4418. Following a brief correction, the expectation is for the Santa Claus rally to drive the markets higher into year-end.

Stay tuned!

 

Inventing a FASTER Process

As an investment newsletter, dedicated to great investment ideas such as trend disruptors, we scour the market to identify companies poised to become technology disruptors. In a recent update, we introduced to our subscribers three new entities that align with our criteria. Today, we shine a light on one of those companies:  GSI Technologies

Using AI technology requires vast amounts of data to be processed quickly and efficiently in order to be useful in applications that depend on it. In the AI world there are huge amounts of data in play, but processing that much data in the standard cache-to-processor chips can be too slow.  The illustration below shows how standard server processor cores struggle with large datasets, due to the narrow connection with the large on-chip memory.

GSI Technologies, a recent pick for TREND DISRUPTORS subscribers has developed a first-generation chip (GEMINI-l) to speed things up, and are developing the next version (GEMINI-ll), aiming to bring this solution to market in the second half of 2024.

GSIT is a leading provider of semiconductor memory solutions for in-place associative computing applications. The company deals directly with high-growth markets like AI and high-performance computing, which includes both natural language processing and computer vision.

To be clear, this is not traditional processing. GSIT’s Gemini technology uses associative processing unit (APU) products focused on applications using similarity search, which are used in visual search queries for things like e-commerce, computer vision, drug discovery, and cybersecurity. Of course, advanced AI chip solutions can serve many markets, like networking, telecommunications, and the military.

GSIT has just announced they have completed the tape-out for Gemini-II and will evaluate the first silicon chip by the end of 2023.  Gemini features millions of cores that can all access memory at once, allowing a much greater flow of data, generating much faster results.

Gemini-I APU’s architecture features parallel data processing with two million-bit processors per chip. The massive in-memory processing reduces computation time from minutes to milliseconds, while significantly reducing power consumption, all in a scalable format. A comparison of leading AI chips, shows that the Gemini chip excels when compared to products from Intel, Nvidia, and Graphcore.

Gemini-I excels at large (billion item) database search applications, like facial recognition, drug discovery, Elasticsearch, and object detection. Gemini-II will bring significant performance enhancements over Gemini-I with more than ten times the processing performance with eight times the memory density compared to Gemini-I. Gemini-II’s combination of high processing power, large built-in memory, tremendous bandwidth, reduced power consumption, and latency, provides a best-in-class solution for AI applications.

Gemini-II contains 1 million Bit Processors in six megabytes of associative compute memory tightly connected to 96 megabytes of distributed SRAM with a huge 46 terabyte per second bandwidth. The Gemini APU implements bit-granular processing, which allows users fully flexible cycle by cycle data format operation, an inherent advantage versus other parallel processors. Gemini-II is a complete package that includes a DDR4 controller and external interfaces for PCIe Gen4 by 16, and PCIe Gen4 by 4. This integrated solution offers substantial processing capabilities, being suitable for both low power data center expansion and enabling data center functions at the edge. This empowers local execution of computationally intensive tasks, increasing the capabilities of edge applications like advanced driver assistance systems for automobiles, and HPC in delivery drones, autonomous robots, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites.

“This major achievement showcases our continued commitment to pushing the boundaries of AI chip technology,” said Lee-Lean Shu, CEO and Chairman of GSI Technology. “We’re in talks with a leading Cloud Service Provider to further explore the APU architecture benefits highlighted by Gemini-II. Large language models, such as ChatGPT, Microsoft BING, and Google’s Bard, are pushing natural language processing boundaries. We’ve just begun to tap into their transformative potential across many industries and applications. Abundant opportunities await Gemini-II and future APU implementations in the AI market.”

Founded in 1995, GSI Technology, Inc. is a leading provider of semiconductor memory solutions. The Company recently launched radiation-hardened memory products for extreme environments in space and the Gemini® Associative Processing Unit (APU), a memory-centric design that delivers significant performance advantages for diverse AI applications. The Gemini APU architecture removes the I/O bottleneck between the processors and memory arrays by performing massive parallel searches directly in the memory array where data is stored. The novel architecture delivers performance-over-power ratio improvements compared to CPU, GPU, and DRAM for applications like image detection, speech recognition, e-commerce recommendation systems, and more. Gemini may be the ideal solution for edge applications with a scalable format, small footprint, and low power consumption where rapid, accurate responses are critical.

GSIT has announced its receipt of a Phase I SBIR contract in the 23.5 cohort by AFWERX, which is a United States Air Force program with the goal of fostering a culture of innovation within the service. Encompassing a number of programs supported with relatively small amounts of funding, the initiative is intended to circumvent bureaucracy and engage new entrepreneurs in Air Force programs. Under this contract, GSIT will perform a feasibility study to adapt, modify, and enhance its commercially proven Gemini® APU to propel Air and Space Force computing at the edge. They are embarking on a mission to explore high-performance edge processing. At the heart of this collaboration is the Gemini® APU, a dual-purpose compute-in-memory chip crafted to unleash the potential of various AI applications, including inference and high-performance computing workloads. While the APU is well suited for data center applications, its exceptional power efficiency will allow GSI to pursue this remarkable capability to the edge as well.

Given all of the above, it is no surprise that TREND DISRUPTORS has an eye focused on this company, as GSIT has the potential to be a major Trend Disruptor in the hugely Disruptive AI market. The goal of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover and monitor technical developments that have the potential to DISRUPT market sectors. We look for the best ideas, and we generate actionable investment recommendations for subscribers. As a general rule, these recommendations are speculative, and we advise caution, discretion, and thorough research. We strive to identify investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well-informed investor.

Stay tuned!!

 

 

 

 

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Market Notes

Market turning point?

Today the markets opened on a positive note, fueled by inflation data that came in cooler than anticipated. This news raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might halt its interest rate hikes and potentially implement cuts in the coming year. While we don’t anticipate any immediate rate cuts, the prevailing sentiment could drive the markets higher as we approach the year-end.

This upward movement exhibited a broad-based rally, which is particularly encouraging. It’s not just the well-known top-performing stocks leading the charge; instead, the market saw widespread participation. It’s worth noting that the Relative Strength Index at the bottom of the chart is nearing oversold territory, hinting at a potential pause. However, with the deceleration in inflation, declining energy prices, and robust seasonality, barring unforeseen events, we anticipate a strong year-end rally.

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