Who’s leading the Charge?

Soon after the discovery of electricity there were many related discoveries and inventions that enabled the generation and storage of electricity.  It was Ben Franklin who, in 1749, coined the word “battery”.  However, it was the work of Luigi Galvani and Allesandro Volta that led to the first battery produced in 1800.  Galvani noticed that a frog leg hanging on a brass hook would twitch when touching a scalpel to the hook, and thought that the source of the electricity was the frog leg, which he called animal electricity.  Volta had a different theory about this phenomenon, which proved correct when he placed a wet salty cloth between plates of copper and zinc and attached wires to each plate, noticing that electricity was being produced.  This, of course was the first “battery”, much as we envision them today.

Batteries work because of chemical reactions, and generally involve two different metals reacting in an electrolyte. In 1859, French physicist, Gaston Plante, developed the lead acid battery which is still used today to start our car engines. Lots of different battery compositions have been tried, but the next breakthrough came in 1980 when    John Goodenough introduced the lithium ion battery, which is the current standard for the majority of our battery powered devices. These batteries can be sized and shaped for many purposes, but they do have a small risk of catching fire as happened with a few Samsung phones and other devices a short while ago. Battery improvements are needed, to increase safety, output, and longevity, so along comes John Goodenough again to develop the solid state battery.

The big change with solid state batteries is that the electrolyte, instead of being a liquid, is a solid, which is a huge advance. The solid state design has several advantages over liquid electrolyte designs, and the main ones are:

  • more stable (much less likely to catch fire or explode)
  • less costly to manufacture
  • friendlier to the environment at the manufacturing level
  • higher capacity for energy storage (batteries are often used to store power, as well as generate power)
  • increased electrical output per cubic volume
  • less weight and smaller size for equivalent output / storage

Given that we all have batteries in our life – in our cars, in our homes, in our electronic devices, and even sometimes in our bodies, then a better battery is likely to make our lives better too. As electric vehicles make further inroads they could have increased range, need fewer charging stops, and charge faster with solid state batteries. With the power to size ratio increasing we can envision batteries that are sized and shaped more effectively for small devices like pacemakers and hearing aids. There are many devices that could benefit from having a smaller, more powerful battery on board. Lithium-sulphur batteries are also being developed, however they cannot be made as small as solid state batteries.

There are many devices using batteries today and that number will increase dramatically as we move forward.  The Internet of Things (IoT) already has an estimated 30 billion connected devices and the predictions are that we will reach 75 billion devices over the next five years, with all of them using sensors, timers, cameras etc. For the renewable energy sector solid state batteries offer a better and cheaper way to store energy generated by wind, sun, and waves. Cell phones will expand their range with more powerful batteries and they will go for longer times before needing a charge. Many healthcare devices could be improved by using solid state battery design to make them smaller, safer, and longer lasting. Electric vehicles may soon embrace solid state batteries, as Henrik Fisker (Fisker Inc.) is apparently only months away from putting the final design touches on a scalable solid state battery for his newest electric supercar, called “Emotion”. Clearly, the solid state battery has the potential to be disruptive in a large swath of human endeavours.

The aim of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover, explore, and monitor scientific and technical developments, looking for the brightest ideas – – those that have the potential to “disrupt” a market sector. We publish relevant investment recommendations for our subscribers and publish blog articles discussing a variety of technology developments. The markets today are mired in uncertainty, but as investors looking for “disruptive” opportunities we will seek out companies that are using technology to be useful and profitable. Generally, disruptive technology stock recommendations are speculative and we advise caution and restraint.

TREND DISRUPTORS monitors technology and scientific developments, and identifies investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well informed investor.

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Market Notes

Market update – 06/11/2020

In yesterday’s update we discussed how the US Federal Reserve pledged to maintain at least the current pace of asset purchases and projected interest rates will remain near zero through 2022.  We also showed how most indexes were overbought based on the RSI. Overnight the market had a chance to digest that commitment from the Fed and decided that if the Fed is not even considering raising rates for another two years, then they must be seeing plenty of trouble in the next year or two.

One of the things we have been warning subscribers about is the incredible debt crisis that is looming, not just in governments, but also companies. Low interest rates have created zombie companies.   One side effect of central banks keeping rates low for a long time is that it interferes with the normal process of poorly run companies failing and disappearing, it is a natural attrition. With central banks like the Fed actually buying up debt of these companies it is keeping many unproductive companies alive, which ultimately lowers long-run growth rate of the economy.

This chart shows the percent of US firms that have debt servicing costs that are HIGHER than their profits.

The markets sold off today in a dramatic fashion.

The small cap stocks were the big losers today again as identified by the Russell 2000 Index. It dropped a whopping 7.63%, the worst day since March 16.

The Dow Industrials continued to lead the way down for the big three US indexes, down  6.90%. The Dow has now fallen out of its uptrend channel, and by closing below 26,000 warns that the Dow may be leading the markets back into a correction, so caution is required here.

The S&P 500 also falls out of uptrend channel, as it was down 5.89%

The Nasdaq which has been the market leader, also hit, down 5.27%

The Canadian market was down, but at 4.14%, less than the US markets

Yesterday we noted the $US was oversold, at least in the short-term, and it got a bounce today as the safe-haven currency.

Gold caught a bit, as low interest rates makes gold more attractive.

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Market Notes

Market Update

US Fed sees 0% rates through 2022

The US Federal Reserve pledged to maintain at least the current pace of asset purchases and projected interest rates will remain near zero through 2022, as Chairman Jerome Powell committed the central bank to using all its tools to help the economy recover from the coronavirus.

“We’re not even thinking about thinking about raising rates,” he told a video press conference Wednesday. “We are strongly committed to using our tools to do whatever we can for as long as it takes.”

Interesting to compare the S&P 500 recovery now versus that during the Great Depression. It is all about the Fed.

The NASDAQ Index is the clear winner here as tech stocks continue to lead the way. The NASDAQ closed today above 10,000 for the first time ever. The question now is, does the NASDAQ continue to lead equities higher? Note at the bottom chart, Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now technically in overbought territory.

The Dow Industrials did not follow the NASDAQ’s lead today and as we highlighted to subscribers on Sunday, the Dow is lagging, posing the question: is the NASDAQ going to lead equities higher, or will the Dow lead the markets lower and potentially re-test the March lows? By closing below 27,000, we must now watch to see if the Key Support at 25,230 holds.

The S&P 500 also struggled today, giving up 17 points.

The Small Caps represented by the Russell 2000 Index was the big loser for US equities today, down 2.72%.

The Canadian market was also down today.

With the Fed vowing to keep rates low, the yield on the 10-year bond dropped 10 points to .75% 

With the Fed promising low rates, the US dollar continued lower. Canadian and European investors might want to look to convert some local currency to $US during this weakness.

Gold has been trading in a tight range lately.

Stay tuned!