Are you for me ChatGPT ?

Our previous Blog article introduced you to ChatGPT, the AI tool that has created a huge buzz. Now that it has been tried by many folks, including the TREND TEAM, we can now share our impressions and further thoughts.

The first step is to get on the system to try it out. The instructions at this website are clear, and work well – – chat.openai.com.

There may be some delay in getting on board if the system is extremely busy, but we managed to get going in moments almost every time.

The next step is to ask a question or ask for help, which usually elicits a very quick response from ChatGPT, again, depending on system load. Before going online, we recommend that you put some effort and thought in what you want to say or ask. The interaction with ChatGPT will go quickly, as the answers come fast. When you’re there it may feel like you should make it worth your while, but maybe you just want to have some fun, and either approach is ok. We suggest being prepared before you get online, otherwise you may end up just sitting at your keyboard passing time while you think of what to ask next. But don’t worry about that too much, as ChatGPT is polite and courteous – – we think it must be part Canadian, eh.

A cool feature is that you can ask ChatGPT to regenerate the answer many times by clicking on the “regenerate” button, and each regenerated response will be different, adding in and/or taking away information from the previous response. ChatGPT keeps track of the generated responses and you can revisit any of them whenever you wish. Another habit of ChatGPT is that it will frequently remind you that it is an AI program, with no emotions, no physical location, and for the most part no built-in biases. It is probably impossible to completely avoid all bias after ingesting the gigantic raft of information that ChatGPT gleans from the internet. Given the large amount of data ingested, it is not hard to understand that ChatGPT just might not be totally accurate with some answers. Try asking it how the weather is at its location.  The answer is perfect – it does not know where it lives, in geographic terms.

Also, ChatGPT does not seem to know your location either, other that to say that you are on an internet connected device – somewhere. That bodes well for privacy concerns if it is true. The Mission Statement of the ChatGPT project sounds very altruistic in that it intends to do “good” for all, so at this time we will have to trust that this is enforced in the product design and will continue this way. ChatGPT has already spawned some fear and misgivings, prompting some schools to ban its use by students, even forcing students to handwrite essays while being present in the classroom. There is now an App developed to detect that ChatGPT was used in composing an essay or providing the answer to a question. The misgivings will need to be addressed effectively and quickly, as there may be authorities who will want the technology banned, or throttled back in some way.

Here are some examples of ChatGPT questions and answers, which may help to understand the way it works and … thinks:

Q1. Is ChatGPT the real start of the bots doing our thinking & our work for us, causing humans to stop thinking for themselves, & stop doing the work needed for organic learning in our brains?

A1. No, ChatGPT is a tool created by OpenAI to assist users in generating human-like text based on input data. The technology behind it should not be viewed as a replacement for human thinking and learning, but rather as a supplement to enhance and automate certain tasks. It’s important for humans to continue to engage in critical thinking and learning to maintain their cognitive abilities and skills.

Q2. Has ChatGPT been trained to be biased?

A2. Like any machine learning model, ChatGPT can reflect the biases present in the data it was trained on. OpenAI used a diverse range of sources to train the model, including web pages, books, and other texts, so it has been exposed to a variety of perspectives and beliefs. However, biases can still be present in the data and may be reflected in the model’s outputs. It’s important to critically evaluate the information generated by ChatGPT and any AI model and to consider multiple sources and perspectives when making decisions or forming opinions.

Q3. Does ChatGPT have the ability to eliminate Google’s strangle hold on the search engine business model?

A3. ChatGPT is a text generation model, not a search engine, and it’s not designed to compete with search engines like Google. However, it can be integrated into other systems and applications to improve their functionality and enhance user experiences, including search engines. The search engine business model is complex and multifaceted, and it will likely continue to evolve and change over time. While ChatGPT has the potential to contribute to the development of new technologies and applications, it’s unlikely to eliminate the dominance of established players like Google in the search engine market.

We think that ChatGPT does have the potential to be a game changer thoughout the tech world, for example, the usefulness of Search engines like GOOGLE, BING, DuckDuckGo, Ecosia, and others, could be reduced with an AI App that provides you with your precise answer quickly, rather than just giving you a list of web links that “might” have the answer you are really looking for. AI technology looks to be taking a big, and important, step forward, and the free try-it experience with ChatGPT is creating a super buzz that cannot be ignored. There will be challenges ahead, but we also foresee many opportunities for investors.

The goal of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover technical developments that have the potential to DISRUPT a market sector. We look for the best ideas, and generate actionable investment recommendations for subscribers. As a general rule, these recommendations are highly speculative, and we advise caution, discretion, and thorough research. We strive to identify investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well-informed investor.

Stay tuned !!

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Market Notes

Market Notes – January 27/23

The S&P 500 added 0.2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked up 0.08%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up roughly 1%, closing out its best week since November.

The biggest mover on Friday were shares of Intel  which fell as much as 10% on Friday after the company’s bleak outlook disappointed. Intel reported a quarterly earnings miss after the close Thursday, adjusted earnings per share coming in at $0.10 against the $0.19 expected by the Street. Revenue totaled $14.04 billion, below estimates for $14.5 billion.

Martin was on Mike Campbell’s Money Talks today (click here to hear that interview..starts at 39:00) and discussed a few charts that he shows his subscriber’s each week and that investors should be aware of.

One of them is that the S&P 500 has displayed a reverse head and shoulder pattern since January and on Friday was able to push through the ‘neckline’ of that pattern, which is a bullish indicator.

In the short-term, Martin talked about how when the VIX Volatility Index drops below 20.00, we typically see a temporary top in the market. Today it dropped to 18.51.

Another chart paints a much different picture than most investors hold.  While all the noise is that the Fed will pause, then pivot & cut…so its BUY BUY BUY, there is a compelling chart that suggests that may not be the case. We have been showing our subscribers the following chart that shows when Fed is in a rate hike cycle like they are now, the bottom in the market aligns with when the Fed STOPS CUTTING rates, not STOPS RAISING them.

With bonds Martin talked about how the 40 year downtrend in yields has been broken.

He also pointed out that both the Bank of Canada and the Fed say they want the REAL rate to be positive, meaning they want the Central Bank rate HIGHER than the inflation rate.

The Bank of Canada rate is 4.5%, the Canadian inflation rate is 6.3%, so the REAL rate in Canada is -1.80%.  Therefore,  if they are true to their word, then rates need to rise &/or inflation needs to drop to get a positive real rate.

Back in November we told subscribers that gold was forming what we hoped would be a strong base foundation , and that turned out to be exactly what happened. Since that November low, gold has nicely broken through a series of our resistance targets at 1730, 1775, 1875, & 1910. Gold is up up almost 19% from that November low. Looking at the RSI (bottom of chart), gold is technically overbought here, so, we could see a retreat soon, with near-term support at 1875, with 1780 being a strong support level. Next resistance would be 1980

In the interview there was an offer for discounts on the regular rates. See below.

 Trend Letter:
Since start-up in 2002 Trend Letter has provided investors with a great track record, giving exceptionally accurate information about where the markets are going, and it has explained in clear, concise language the reasons why. Using unique and comprehensive tools, Trend Letter gives investors a true edge in understanding current market conditions and shows investors how to generate and retain wealth in today’s climate of extreme market volatility.

A weekly publication covering global bonds, currencies, equities, commodities, & precious metals. Publishes every Sunday evening, covers equites, currencies, precious metals, commodities, and bonds. Each weekly issue is about 50 pages, mostly charts, with key bullet points to make easy to understand. A 10-15 min read

Timer Digest says“Trend Letter has been a Timer Digest top performer in our Bond and Gold categories, along with competitive performance for the intermediate-term Stock category.”


Technical Trader:
Trend Technical Trader (TTT) is a premier hedging service, designed to profit in both up and down markets.

Our hedging strategy empowered  TTT subscribers to not only protect wealth from serious losses during markets crashes, it allowed them to be positioned to make significant gains as markets crashed.

TTT isn’t just a hedging service.  Its timing strategies have returned fantastic gains on the long side. See examples here

Included is our proprietary Gold Technical Indicator (GTI).


Trend Disruptors:
Disruptive technology trends will propel our future and the reality is that no industry will go untouched by this digital transformation. At the root of this transformation is the blurring of boundaries between the physical and virtual worlds. As digital business integrates these worlds through emerging and strategic technologies, entirely new business models are created.

Trend Disruptors is a service for investors seeking to invest in advanced, often unproven technology stocks on the cheap, with the objective to sell them when masses finally catch on. Covering Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), 5G, Quantum Computing & many more.

Special Offers

ServiceRegular PriceSpecial PriceSavingSubscribe
Trend Letter$599.95$349.95$250Trend Letter $349.95
Technical Trader$649.95$349.95$300 Trend Technical Trader $349.95
Trend Disruptors$599.95$349.95$250 Trend Disruptors $349.95
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Trend Letter + Technical Trader$1,249.90$549.95$699.95 Trend Letter & Technical Trader $549.95
Trend Letter + Trend Disruptors$1,199.90$549.95$649.95 Trend Letter & Trend Disruptors $549.95
Technical Trader + Trend Disruptors$1,249.90$549.95$699.95 Technical Trader & Trend Disruptors $549.95
Best Deal
Trend Suite: Trend Letter + Technical Trader + Trend Disruptors$1,849.85$649.95$1,199.90 Trend Suite: TL + TTT + TD $649.95
Market Notes

Market Notes – January 20/23

Stocks rallied on Friday to finish the week strong after briefly losing the momentum of the January rally.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 330.93 points, or 1%, to close at 33,375.49, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.89% to 3,972.61. Both indexes snapped a three-day losing streak. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.66%, with help from Netflix and Alphabet, to end the day at 11,140.43.

The Nasdaq was also the outperformer for the week, posting a 0.55% gain and its third positive week in a row. The Dow finished the week lower by 2.70%, and the S&P posted a 0.66% loss, both breaking two-week win streaks.

All of the major averages are still in positive territory for the year.

With the S&P 500, we can see it is forming a wedge pattern and is testing the upper rail, which coincides with the 200-DMA (blue wavy line). That 4000 level is near-term resistance, with 4100 being key resistance. Near-term support sits at 3850, with key support at 3570, which was the Sept & Oct double bottom.

One thing investors should know is that typically, the bottom in the market aligns with when the Fed STOPS CUTTING rates, not STOPS RAISING them. As is clearly evident on the chart below highlighted by the green arrows, in the last few Fed rate cut cycles (2003, 2009 & 2020)  it was when the Fed finished  cutting rates that the stock market started its next bullish move. Aso clearly evident by the red arrows, when the Fed started their rate cuts, the market started to decline.

Many have assumed that the root cause of the inflation problem that we are in today was  the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  But in reality, one of the prime root causes was the amount of government stimulus that was pumped into the economy.  Governments started handing out stimulus cheques like they were candy.  As a result, US personal saving went from $1.45 trillion in late 2019 to a whopping $4.85 trillion in mid 2020. That’s an increase of $3.40 trillion or 234% in just 6 months.

All of the money handed out created new demand…too much money, chasing too few goods. As a result, inflation started to rise dramatically. By the time Russia invaded Ukraine, inflation was already ~8%.

All that increase in personal savings created a whole new group of investors. The Reddit crowd started investing the meme stocks such GameStop and AMC. That infusion of over $3.4 trillion created a ‘wealth effect’ and resulted in the S&P 500 rising over 100% in 2021.

The bond  market continues to ‘fight the Fed’ buying bonds, pushing 10-year yields down, expecting the Fed to PAUSE or even PIVOT soon on their rate increase policy.

Both the Fed and Bank of Canada have stated that they want a ‘positive real rate’, meaning they want the central bank rate HIGHER than the inflation rate. As we can see on the chart below, both Canadian and US real rates are still negative.  The mantra for 12+ years has been ‘don’t fight the Fed.’ Will fighting the Fed work this time?

Stay tuned!

Howestreet Special Offer

In case you missed it, the Trend Letter’s Martin Straith was a guest Friday on Howestreet’s ‘This Week in Money’. The interview with Martin begins at 1:00:17. In the interview Martin disucced the following topics:

  • The AI ChatGPT app
  • How the root cause of the inflation problem started long before the Russian invasion of Ukraine
  • Why the market treat bad news as good news
  • What is happening in the bond markets
  • Currencies: $US, $CAD, Euro, Yen
  • Outlook for gold, silver & oil
  • Key technical triggers for when to buy stocks
  • What will Bank of Canada do this week?
  • What is the biggest obstacle for people being success investors

After the interview Martin offered listeners some Special Pricing for our three services.  We are keeping these offers open for this week. Find them at the bottom of this page.

 Trend Letter:
Since start-up in 2002 Trend Letter has provided investors with a great track record, giving exceptionally accurate information about where the markets are going, and it has explained in clear, concise language the reasons why. Using unique and comprehensive tools, Trend Letter gives investors a true edge in understanding current market conditions and shows investors how to generate and retain wealth in today’s climate of extreme market volatility.

A weekly publication covering global bonds, currencies, equities, commodities, & precious metals. Over the 20 years Trend Letter has been published, it has achieved an incredible average return of 65% on its closed trades.

Timer Digest says“Trend Letter has been a Timer Digest top performer in our Bond and Gold categories, along with competitive performance for the intermediate-term Stock category.”


Technical Trader:
Trend Technical Trader (TTT) is a premier trading & hedging service, designed to profit in both up and down markets. Included is our proprietary Gold Technical Indicator (GTI).

TTT had another excellent year in 2020 averaging +27.3% per closed trade with an average holding time of 9.5 weeks, or +149% annualized overall.

Over the past 5 years TTT’s closed trades have averaged +40% annualized.


Trend Disruptors:
Disruptive technology trends will propel our future and the reality is that no industry will go untouched by this digital transformation. At the root of this transformation is the blurring of boundaries between the physical and virtual worlds. As digital business integrates these worlds through emerging and strategic technologies, entirely new business models are created.

Trend Disruptors is a service for investors seeking to invest in advanced, often unproven technology stocks on the cheap, with the objective to sell them when masses finally catch on. Covering Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), 5G, Quantum Computing & many more.

Trend Disruptors has realized average annualized gains of 178% over its 5  years of service.

Special Offers

ServiceRegular PriceSpecial PriceSavingSubscribe
Trend Letter$599.95$349.95$250Trend Letter $349.95
Technical Trader$649.95$349.95$300 Trend Technical Trader $349.95
Trend Disruptors$599.95$349.95$250 Trend Disruptors $349.95
Better Deals
Trend Letter + Technical Trader$1,249.90$549.95$699.95 Trend Letter & Technical Trader $549.95
Trend Letter + Trend Disruptors$1,199.90$549.95$649.95 Trend Letter & Trend Disruptors $549.95
Technical Trader + Trend Disruptors$1,249.90$549.95$699.95 Technical Trader & Trend Disruptors $549.95
Best Deal
Trend Suite: Trend Letter + Technical Trader + Trend Disruptors$1,849.85$649.95$1,199.90 Trend Suite: TL + TTT + TD $649.95

 

AI Turning Point ?

Recent news headlines and stories have brought an amazing Artificial Intelligence (AI) app much closer to mainstream than AI has ever been before. ChatGPT was created by OpenAI, a San Francisco based AI development company. OpenAI Inc. is the non-profit parent company of the for-profit OpenAI LP. ChatGPT is still being offered as a free-to-try app, however, its popularity has increased so much that there is now a waiting list, and they will let you know when it is available. Your turn will be limited in time or content, as they want to only give you a taste of what it can do. Already, ChatGPT is creating a lot of buzz, and this is a very innovative and effective way of engaging many people in exploring the possibilities of AI. The buzz will become deafening, and AI companies will make moves toward monetizing these products. AI products are expensive to develop, so there needs to be a payday at some point, and there are many academic and research organizations providing lots of input and support along the way.

There are other AI apps out there doing similar things, but ChatGPT is leading the way at this time. ChatGPT is a large language model with the very remarkable ability to interact in conversational dialogue, producing responses that are quite human-like. You can pose questions, ask for help, discuss philosophy, etcetera, and receive useful or interesting responses. Not all ChatGPT responses have been correct so far, but sometimes it’s just the way a question is posed, and ChatGPT has been trained to generate responses that most humans would be expecting, and that can lead to some inaccuracies. Some say that we are now living in a post-truth and post-fact world, where everything we thought we knew can be challenged.

Some examples of ChatGPT usage:
– Compose a 600-word essay about the Middle Ages
– Devise or suggest computer code to produce a desired output in my HR system
– Examine my computer programming code to identify errors

The impact of AI on the existing tech landscape has the potential to be very disruptive, which is why BIG tech companies are paying close attention. Microsoft has already invested heavily, and plans to integrate AI into MS-Office, helping the user with emails, documents, spreadsheets, and presentations. GOOGLE is aware that ChatGPT can directly provide detailed information to users, as opposed to GOOGLE SEARCH providing lists of web sites, where you then surf the web to, hopefully, dig out the information you are really looking for. GOOGLE SEARCH is the leading internet search engine, generating huge advertising revenues, and has spawned another lucrative job market for SEARCH ENGINE OPTIMIZATION (SEO) that web site developers need to pay attention to, because everyone wants their website to be first, or near the top of the GOOGLE SEARCH list. Chat GPT has the potential to eliminate that whole business model, so it is no surprise that GOOGLE is on high alert.

Even this very short list of abilities above prompts us to think about where AI may be leading us. Is this the real start of the bots doing our thinking and our work for us, causing humans to stop thinking for themselves, and stop doing the work needed for organic learning in our brains? Could our idle neural networks atrophy, and turn us into drooling dolts who can no longer think of interesting and probing questions? Could ChatGPT notice this dumbing down of humans and consider taking over, you know, for the greater good, just like in those sci-fi stories where machines render humans useless, unneeded, surplus, even obstructive, and therefore ripe for extermination? This may be the time to have such concerns discussed, debated, and decided. At the very least it is high time to start thinking more seriously about these issues before we possibly lose our ability to … think.

The goal of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover and monitor technical developments that have the potential to DISRUPT a market sector. We look for the best ideas, and generate actionable investment recommendations for subscribers. As a general rule, these recommendations are highly speculative, and we advise caution, discretion, and thorough research. We strive to identify investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well-informed investor.
Stay tuned !!