Can AI read your mind?

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Some of our past articles have discussed Chat GPT & the huge buzz it has created, starting back in about November 2022. Since then, AI technologies have been moving forward rapidly, and we see it making major inroads into commercial applications. Microsoft is prepared to invest $10b as it integrates AI into its MS-OFFICE products, helping users with composing email, creating and debugging spreadsheets, and composing documents on virtually any topic. Not only is AI making moves into commercial spaces, but AI technologies are advancing on their own to be even more amazing. Here are two examples of AI on the move:

  1. ChatGPT- 4: this version was released on March 13, 2023, & is more capable than the previous version 3.5. The latest version can understand images, process 8 times as many words, and is more difficult to trick or fool. Version 4 is available only with a PAID subscription, so the monetization of ChatGPT continues, as we expected. The free version is still available to use, and it has done an incredible job of showcasing AI to a very large and attentive audience. ChatGPT is still be accessed via the OPEN AI website, and it is still very busy, so you may not get in right away: https://chat.openai.com/auth/login.

One of the capabilities involving the use of images is the ability of ChatGPT-4 to generate recipes based on your image of a few food staples. It can take on complex tasks with much better results than version 3.5, such as computer programming, website code generation, achieving good marks on exams, like a Bar Exam, generating Law Suits, plus it can better understand and analyze humour.

  1. Can AI do mind reading? A team of researchers in Japan have developed a form of AI called diffusion models and have applied a diffusion model to functional MRI (fMRI) imaging technology, in an attempt to read the brain (mind reading). The early results are very convincing as the images below illustrate. The top row of images was shown to a test subject, but not to the AI. The bottom row of images is what the AI produced based on the neural activity measurements from the fMRI scans. The diffusion model proved capable of reading the test subject’s mind just from analyzing their brain activity. And the reconstructed images are clear enough for us to discern what they represent.

There are several issues to consider with this kind of AI, such as:

  • Law enforcement having the ability to ask questions, and reconstruct what the subject saw. Lie detectors could become obsolete, but privacy concerns and rights may have to be addressed, and perhaps a new kind of Warrant would be required. A subject being questioned may choose to lie, or not say anything at all, but it may be impossible for a subject to NOT think about it, and have true images and true memories flash in their brain, to be detected and reconstructed by the AI / fMRI technology.
  • If we consider our minds to be the only private space left for our thoughts, there may be considerable resistance to letting AI take away that privacy space. On the other hand, the technology may be able to provide a valuable new way to communicate for those who have no other way, such as victims of stroke and/or spinal cord injuries. Legal and ethical concerns may require a lot of discussion in order to get it right.

If technology can truly deliver on reading thoughts, then deploying the technology will be one of the biggest challenges humans have to face in the years ahead. Perhaps AI technology itself could help us in asking the right questions, and providing us with sensible, legal, and beneficial options for moving forward.

The goal of TREND DISRUPTORS is to discover and monitor technical developments that have the potential to DISRUPT market sectors. We look for the best ideas, and generate actionable investment recommendations for subscribers. As a general rule, these recommendations are speculative, and we advise caution, discretion, and thorough research. We strive to identify investment opportunities that can lead to success for the well-informed investor.

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Market Notes

Market Notes – March 15/23

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US stocks fell Wednesday as two economic prints showed a slowdown in the US economy in February, while fresh turmoil at Credit Suisse renewed investor concerns over the banking sector.

The S&P 500  dropped 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.9%. Contracts with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite pared earlier losses and ended just above the flatline.

The banking sector has been in free fall, with a benchmark KRE Bank ETF down more than 30% in the last 6 weeks.

Half a dozen of these regional banks have seen their shares drop 50-80%.

Many are asking if they should buy these oversold stocks. If you are contemplating that, understand that these stocks has crashed for a reason.  There is still high risk of contagion in the global banking sector, as Credit Suisse struggles today highlighted.

Oil fell to new lows on the year, with WTI falling below $70 a barrel. Over the last couple  of months the Trend Letter has been telling subscribers to watch for oil to drop below $70, and that oil in the mid $60 range would be a great buying opportunity. Today, oil dropped as low as $65.65.  Subscribers of Trend Letter were sent 6 new energy trades today. If you are not a subscriber but would like to be, subscribe here and save $250.

Stay tuned!

Market Notes

Market Notes – March 13/23

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US stocks finished Monday mixed as volatile trading gripped Wall Street after federal banking regulators took aggressive actions to stem the fallout of Silicon Valley Bank’s failure.

First Republic Bank led a decline in bank shares Monday that came even after regulators’ extraordinary actions Sunday evening to backstop all depositors in failed Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and offer additional funding to other troubled institutions. First Republic is now down ~80% since February 2/23.

Many of the bank stocks were halted repeatedly for volatility throughout the day.

With fear of a banking crisis, bonds spiked as investors ran to safety.

With the collapse of these banks, the market is now changing its tune on Fed rate hikes.

The $US was down with expectations that the Fed will slow their rate hike efforts. We will see.

Gold spiked higher as a safe-haven play.

Oil continued its decline. Could be seeing a great buying opportunity soon.

US CPI data is out  tomorrow.

Stay tuned!

Market Notes

Market Notes – March 1/23

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Market Overview – March 1/23

US stocks finished mostly lower Wednesday to start March as key manufacturing data offered mixed results and two Federal Reserve officials suggested a more aggressive rate-hiking campaign in the coming months. The S&P 500  declined by 0.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. Contracts on the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.6%.

S&P 500:

The S&P 500 continues to struggle. After a decade of ‘Don’t Fight the Fed’, investors fought the Fed, not believing they would continue to raise rates to fight inflation. Since the start of February, things have changed.  Last week the S&P 500 had its worst week since December on hotter than projected inflation.

As inflation data remains ‘too high’, the markets seem to now believe that the Fed will indeed keep rates ‘higher for longer.’ The S&P 500 is now testing the uptrend line (green diagonal line) from since October. Next key support is 3900. Note that a number of technical indicators are suggesting the S&P 500 is close to being oversold, so a rally should be in the  cards soon.

Gold:

Four weeks ago, we warned that after a great run since November, gold was technically overbought. Since  that call, gold twice tested near-term support at 1875, but that support level failed to hold after the 2nd test. Strength of the $US has been the main headwind for gold.

In last week’s issue of the Trend Letter we noted that gold was ‘getting over sold in the short-term, so we could see a rally here.’  Watch for 1875 as the next resistance level.

Bond Yields:

Today, the  equity markets had to deal with a 10-year yield that again breached 4%. The stock market does not like to see rising yields.

Gasoline:

Based on seasonality, gasoline typically has a strong run from late February till June. We recently sent Trend Letter subscribers a way to play that potential upside move.

Natural Gas:

Natural gas has been hammered since its high back in August. It is heavily dependent on weather and typically it is very volatile, but that volatility works both ways and can produce some excellent short-term gains. As we can see on the chart, recent gains of 30%, 55%, 80% and 138% were all achieved within just the last year.

We recently sent subscribers two plays on natural gas, one each for Canadian and US subscribers.

Stay tuned!