Investing in stocks is a way to set aside money while you are busy with life and have that money work for you so that you can fully reap the rewards of your labor in the future. Legendary investor Warren Buffett defines investing as “the process of laying out money now in the expectation of receiving more money in the future.” The goal of investing is to put your money to work in one or more types of investment vehicles in the hopes of growing your money over time.

The key is that you don’t need to be an expert to invest like one. What you need is a good source that explains what is happening in the markets and then makes recommendations, telling you WHY you should invest in that stock or sector.

Since 2002 the Trend Letter has delivered average returns of over 40% per closed trade. We help people just like you understand what is happening in the markets and what sectors, and stocks make the most sense to invest in.

What Are the Risks of Investing?

Investing is a commitment of resources now toward a future financial goal. There are many levels of risk, with certain asset classes and investment products inherently much riskier than others. However, essentially all investing comes with at least some degree of risk: it is always possible that the value of your investment will not increase over time. For this reason, a key consideration for investors is how to manage their risk to achieve their financial goals, whether they are short- or long-term.

Key rule: Have an Exit Strategy

The first rule in being a successful investor is to not lose money. That might sound obvious, but the truth is most investors have no exit strategy for when they are wrong.  Basic human emotion is perhaps the greatest enemy of successful investing. But whether you’re a long-term investor or a day trader, a disciplined approach to trading is key to profits. You must have a trading plan with every trade. You must know exactly at what level you are a seller of your stock—on the upside and the down. Before we buy any stock or Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) we always set a SELL Stop in case the market moves against us.  When the stock starts rising, we raise our SELL Stop to ensure we lock in gains when we get a pull back.

The bottom line

Being a successful invest requires having the tools necessary that give you the best information to understand current and future market trends. At Trend News we offer three services for investors:

  1. Trend Letter is a weekly service that covers stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, and precious metals. Trend letter has been publishing since 2002 and has an incredibly successful record over that 20+ year span.
  2. Trend Technical Trader (TTT) is an online service that was originally designed as a hedging service, allowing investors to protect their investment during down markets.  We have expanded TTT service to include trading long positions in precious metals, commodities, and other sectors as well.
  3. Trend Disruptors is our service for investors interested in investing in technical sectors. Disruptive technology propels us into the future at a rapid and increasing pace. Virtually no industry goes untouched, as the boundaries between the physical and virtual worlds are erased, transformed, or re-imagined. New technology can re-shape existing business around the world, and create entirely new business models never before thought of.

Whatever you  experience, we have a service that can help you become a very successful investor. It’s your money – take control.

Market Recovery or Temporary Relief? Key Insights on S&P 500 & Gold

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The S&P 500 closed higher for the second consecutive day, marking a positive turn after four weeks of negative results. The index rose 0.6% to 5,675.12, showing signs of recovery after entering correction territory last week. However, Tesla and Nvidia bucked the trend, with Tesla down 5.36% to $236.55 and Nvidia down 1.98% to $119.27.

Key drivers included weaker-than-expected retail sales data, which raised expectations for potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Investors are also closely watching the Fed’s two-day meeting starting Tuesday, where rates are expected to remain unchanged.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 successfully pushed through and closed above its previous support level at 5670. This marks the first test of the current rally. The next challenge will be to surpass the early January low at 5775 (red horizontal line), which is expected to present stronger resistance.

These tests are crucial in determining whether this rally represents a ‘buy the dip’ recovery or a ‘sell the rip’ dead cat bounce. Previously, when the S&P 500 was trending within its upward channel, declines within the channel offered ‘buy the dip’ opportunities. However, with the index now below that channel, any bounce must demonstrate strength by breaking through key resistance levels to avoid the risk of further downside.

It’s important to note that losing support at 5,670 has left the S&P 500 vulnerable to potentially testing its next key support level just under 5,400.

Gold Update:

Gold has experienced an impressive surge over the past two and a half years, climbing 85% since November 2022. Currently, it is testing the upper boundary of its uptrend channel (white circle), which suggests that this resistance level is likely to hold. As a result, a pullback or consolidation appears probable. Such a correction would be a healthy development for gold, allowing it to build momentum and gather strength for its next potential move higher.

Navigate Market Volatility with Confidence

The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors. As we navigate through this period of uncertainty, it’s crucial to stay informed and make strategic decisions.

Now is the perfect time to subscribe and gain trusted guidance in these uncertain markets. Our mission is to help investors make well-informed decisions when it matters most.

To support you, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference—giving you 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Claim your exclusive discount today!

Stay ahead of the curve—seizing market opportunities starts here!

Martin

Market Update: Key Levels, Tech Rebounds & Apple’s Warning Sign

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On Wednesday, March 12, 2025, U.S. stock markets closed with mixed results. Tech stocks led the gains, with Tesla climbing 7.59%, Palantir rising 7.17%, and Nvidia advancing 6.42%. In contrast, consumer stocks lagged, as Target fell 4.86%, Procter & Gamble declined 2.74%, and Walmart edged down 2.56%.

he S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite saw a rebound, but until proven otherwise, this remains a bounce within a broader downtrend. For the S&P 500 to shift back to a more bullish stance, it must first reclaim its previous support level at 5,670 (upper green line) and then break through its 200-day moving average (200-DMA) at 5,737 (wavy magenta line). Until that happens, this rally is more likely a “sell the rip” dead cat bounce rather than a “buy the dip” recovery.

Previously, when the S&P 500 was trending within its upward channel (yellow lines), each decline within the channel presented a “buy the dip” opportunity. However, now that the index has fallen below that channel, any bounce must prove its strength by breaking through these key resistance levels. Until then, the market remains at risk of further downside.

As highlighted throughout the week, losing support at 5,670 has left the S&P 500 vulnerable to testing its next key support level just under 5,400 (lower green horizontal line).

For those less familiar with technical analysis, think of support and resistance levels like floors and ceilings in a building. When a stock or index falls below a support level (the floor), that level then acts as resistance (the ceiling). To regain a bullish trend, the index must move back above those resistance levels.

Apple Update:

We’ve been closely monitoring Apple as it recently closed below the neckline of a Head and Shoulders pattern. This technical formation consists of three peaks: a central, higher peak (the head) flanked by two lower peaks (the shoulders). The pattern is confirmed when the price breaks below the neckline, a key support level connecting the lows between the peaks.

This breakdown is a significant bearish signal, indicating a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. It suggests that selling pressure has overtaken buying pressure, often leading to further price declines as traders interpret it as confirmation of the pattern. A stronger confirmation occurs if the breakdown happens with increased trading volume.

If this move is validated in the coming days, it could be a major development, highlighting potential weakness in one of the best-performing tech stocks of the past decade.

Navigating Market Volatility

If you’re looking for guidance in navigating these volatile markets, now is an opportune time to subscribe to our services. Our mission is to help investors make informed decisions during uncertain times.

To support this, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference, providing 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Click here to take advantage of these exclusive discounts!

Stay vigilant and be ready to adapt—spotting trend changes is what we do!

Martin

Markets in Motion: S&P 500 & Bitcoin in Focus

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Following up on yesterday’s update, the S&P 500 closed lower again today, though the decline was far less severe than yesterday’s bloodbath.  Some of the Magnificent 7 stocks actually closed in the green today.

The market downturn continues to be driven by escalating trade tensions between the United States and Canada. President Trump initially announced an additional 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum imports—raising the total to 50%, effective Wednesday. However, reports emerged near the time of this writing that Ontario is suspending its 25% energy surcharge on  exports for US electricity and that Trump will delay the tariff increase, keeping it at 25%. These constant shifts in trade policy have made equity markets increasingly volatile and uncertain.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 failed to regain its previous support level at 5,670 (green horizontal line) and instead closed down 42 points to 5,572. As highlighted in yesterday’s update, this failure to rally above 5,670 confirms the current bearish tone. If this pattern persists, the next key support level is just below 5,400 (second green horizontal line).

If the S&P 500 can rally and close back above 5,670 tomorrow, a short-term rebound may be possible. While this wouldn’t necessarily signal the market’s ultimate bottom, it could indicate a relief rally. For a more sustained recovery, the index would need to reclaim its position within the uptrend channel (yellow lines) that it fell out of two weeks ago. This would require a rally back to the 6,000 level (red horizontal line,  and red circle).

Bitcoin Update:

Bitcoin broke through its key support level at 92.5K in late February and dropped to a low of 75.4K today before rebounding to 83.2K at the time of this update. While bitcoin is highly volatile, it often serves as a strong indicator of broader market sentiment. A rally in bitcoin suggests a risk-on sentiment in speculative sectors, while a decline signals a risk-off market environment.

Our models indicate that bitcoin could rally back up to the previous 92.5K support level, which will now act as initial resistance. If that resistance holds, bitcoin could fall back toward our target support level of 73K (bottom green horizontal line).

Navigating Market Volatility

Both Trend Technical Trader and Trend Letter anticipated these sharp market declines and issued hedging positions in advance to safeguard subscribers.

If you’re looking for guidance in navigating these volatile markets, now is an opportune time to subscribe to our services. Our mission is to help investors make informed decisions during uncertain times.

To support this, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference, providing 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Click here to take advantage of these exclusive discounts!

Stay vigilant and be ready to adapt—spotting trend changes is what we do!

Martin
Trend News

Markets Tumble – What’s Next for the S&P 500?

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The  heat map of the S&P 500 shows widespread declines across sectors, with technology stocks particularly hard hit. The ‘Magnificent Seven’ companies, including Tesla (-15%), Broadcom (-5.34%) and Nvidia (-5.03%) experienced significant losses.

The notable declines experienced by the equity markets were primarily driven by escalating recession fears and uncertainties surrounding US trade policies.​

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: Fell 890 points (2.1%) to 41,911.71.​
  • S&P 500: Dropped 155 points (2.7%)  to 5,614.56.
  • Nasdaq Composite: Plunged 728 points (4%) to 17,468.32.​

These declines were exacerbated by Trump’s recent comments declining to rule out a potential recession, intensifying investor concerns.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500:

The S&P 500 has now dropped below its 200-day moving average (DMA) and key support at 5,670. The critical question is whether this breakdown will be confirmed by a close below this level tomorrow. A confirmed close beneath this support could signal a deeper market correction, with the next key support level just below 5,400 (second green horizontal line).

However, if the S&P 500 manages to rally and close back above 5,670, we could see a short-term rebound. While this wouldn’t necessarily mark the ultimate market low, it would indicate a potential relief rally. To confirm a more sustained recovery, the index would need to reclaim its position within the uptrend channel (yellow lines) that it fell out of two weeks ago. This would require a rally back to the 6,000 level (red horizontal line).

Both Trend Technical Trader and Trend Letter had anticipated these sharp market declines and issued hedging positions to safeguard subscribers in advance.

If you’re looking for guidance in navigating these volatile markets, now is the perfect time to consider subscribing to our services. Our mission remains to help investors make informed decisions during uncertain times.

To support this, we’re reopening our Special Offers from the WOFC 2025 Conference, providing 33%–57% off regular subscription rates. Click here to take advantage of these exclusive discounts!

Keep your head on a swivel!

Martin

Trend News

Market update – DeepSeek Hits Big Tech

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A surge in interest around China’s AI model, DeepSeek, shook markets today, with the Nasdaq falling 3.07% and Nvidia plunging nearly 17%. This development raises concerns about the sustainability of AI investments, particularly whether costly infrastructure like chips and data centers will deliver returns. Nvidia, valued at over $3 trillion, faces growing skepticism as DeepSeek emerges as a low-cost rival.

On January 8, we highlighted Nvidia’s “outside reversal” (white arrow on chart below) when it hit an all-time high after unveiling its compact AI superchip, the GB10, before retreating to test its 50-DMA. At the time, we warned that failure to hold support at 127.00 could lead to a deeper correction. See our full analysis here. Below is Nvidia’s updated chart.

DeepSeek announced that its R1 model rivals OpenAI’s o1-mini, unveiled in September, while training costs for its latest model totaled $5.6 million—far lower than the $100 million to $1 billion cited by Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei for similar projects. The company trained its V3 model using just over 2,000 Nvidia chips, compared to the tens of thousands typically required for comparable AI systems.

The company said training one of its latest models cost $5.6 million, compared with the $100 million to $1 billion range cited last year by Dario Amodei, chief executive of AI company Anthropic.

“This new AI challenger has spooked investors,” said AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould. “Its assistant is free, operates on lower-cost chips, and uses less data—posing a serious challenge to Western AI leaders.”

DeepSeek’s rapid rise is escalating the AI rivalry between the US and China, particularly in light of Stargate—a US-based joint venture by OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX to expand data center capacity.

The news of DeepSeek’s emergence sent shockwaves through the market, with chipmakers suffering significant losses on fears that the availability of lower-cost alternatives will erode their pricing power. This pressure contributed to a notable sell-off in the Nasdaq tech index.

Conversely, industrial companies poised to benefit from more affordable AI solutions experienced gains, as reflected in the rally of the Dow Industrial Average Index. This market reaction underscores the shifting dynamics in the AI landscape, where cost-efficient technologies are reshaping winners and losers.

Stay tuned!

Market on Edge: Is Nvidia Signaling a Bigger Pullback Ahead?

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Let’s start with the hottest stock in the hottest sector of the market. Nvidia just unveiled its new compact AI superchip, the GB10, and its stock soared to a record high of $153.13 at yesterday’s open. It’s a textbook example of a meteoric rise.

But it turns out it was the classic rally on the hype of a new product. The stock quickly reversed, dropping $13.12 from peak to trough. It created an ‘outside reversal’ (circled), where the stock opened higher than previous day day, but closed much lower at $140.14 – a very bearish signal. We need to watch this carefully!

That move is very bearish and was the biggest single day pullback in NVIDIA’s history. We need to see if this is the start of a telling correction in the stock market rock star which has led the big 2024 rally.

What we are watching is to see if NIVDA breaks down below that lower rung (green diagonal line) of its wedge pattern at 135.00.  If it does, then the next Key Support sits at 127.00, so we are watching that level to see if it fails. If it does, then we could see NIVIDA have a significant correction (purple dotted line).

Secondly, we want to revisit the Head & Shoulders pattern we highlighted on January 2nd.

Back then, we noted that if the right shoulder of the S&P 500 breaks below the neckline (green dotted line), it could signal a significant correction in the markets.

This remains a key level to watch. A breakdown below the neckline (potential move highlighted by purple dotted lines)  would confirm the pattern and could set the stage for a broader market pullback. Keep an eye on this critical support level!

While there’s no guarantee either scenario will play out, if NVIDIA breaks down, it could drag the rest of the market down with it.

Stay tuned!

“Head & Shoulders Pattern Forms – Key Market Moves Ahead This Friday”

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As of January 2, 2025, the much anticipated Santa Claus rally is failing to materialize. The S&P 500 heat map painted another grim picture, with most sectors in the red. However, Nvidia and Meta managed to post solid gains today, while the oil sector continued to show some resilience. Outside of those and a few other bright spots, the broader market remained under pressure.

Over the past few weeks, we’ve highlighted a critical technical trend we’ve been closely monitoring. On the chart below, we’ve drawn a trend line (upper yellow diagonal line) connecting the November low to the present. From November to August of this year, this trend line served as support, but in August, it failed to hold (first white arrow and circle). Since then, it has acted as a resistance level (red arrows).

Following the breakdown in August, we established a second, lower trend line by connecting the subsequent lows. This lower line has provided key support for the S&P 500 up to December 18th. However, since then, the index has struggled to re-enter the channel between these two trend lines.

Zooming into a shorter timeframe, we can clearly see the S&P 500 rallied to test the lower boundary of the uptrend channel but failed to break through (white circle). Since then, it has turned lower.

A Head & Shoulders pattern is now forming, signaling a potential bearish scenario. If the right shoulder breaks below the neckline (green horizontal line), it could trigger a more substantial decline.

To estimate the potential downside, we measure the distance from the head to the neckline and project that downward. This suggests a support target around the 5600 level.

As of today, the neckline remains intact, so there’s no confirmation of an imminent decline. Friday’s market action will be crucial—either the neckline holds, prompting a rebound, or it breaks, paving the way for lower lows with an initial target near 5600.

Stay tuned !

‘Santa Missing as S&P 500 Trends Lower’

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So far, the much-anticipated Santa Claus rally has failed to materialize, and time is running out for a year-end market boost.

The S&P 500 heat map painted another grim picture, with most sectors deep in the red. However, Nvidia managed to eke out a slight gain, and the oil sector showed some resilience. Outside of those bright spots, the broader market remained under pressure.

Back on December 11/24, we highlighted a critical technical trend we’ve been closely monitoring. We drew a yellow trend line extending from October 2023 to that date. Up until August of this year, every time the S&P 500 tested this trend line, it held (indicated by green arrows), and the market subsequently moved higher. However, since August, this same trend line has acted as resistance, and each test has resulted in a reversal lower (indicated by red arrows).

Today, as we revisit that chart, it’s clear that the S&P 500 has been unable to break through this yellow resistance line and continues to trend downward.

Zooming in for a shorter-term perspective, we can see more clearly how the index has fallen out of the uptrend wedge channel it had been tracking since August. On December 18th, the S&P 500 broke below the lower boundary of that channel. A brief retrace on December 24th was swiftly rejected, and the market has been trending lower ever since.

We have consistently warned our subscribers about potential market challenges in the early months of 2025. If the S&P 500 cannot regain its position within the uptrend wedge channel in the coming days, January could prove to be a particularly difficult month for equities.

Stay tuned!

Hope vs. History: Will the DOGE Team Achieve Government Reform?

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The prospect of Donald Trump’s DOGE team (Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy) tackling government inefficiency and wasteful spending has captured headlines. They promise bold reforms, aiming to shrink government and cut through entrenched bureaucracy. While such rhetoric is appealing, history suggests investors should view these claims with skepticism.

Historical Precedents of Failed Reform Efforts

  1. Golden Fleece Awards In the 1970s, Senator William Proxmire created the Golden Fleece Awards to spotlight wasteful government spending. These awards famously exposed egregious examples, such as a $3 million study on why people fall in love. However, beyond the headlines, the initiative failed to create structural changes in government spending habits. The exposed waste was often symptomatic of deeper inefficiencies that remained unaddressed.
  2. Reagan’s Grace Commission President Ronald Reagan’s administration established the Grace Commission in 1982 to eliminate waste and inefficiency in the federal government. The commission’s final report identified potential savings of $424 billion over three years. Despite the bold recommendations, most of its proposals were never implemented due to political resistance and the complexities of bureaucratic inertia. As a result, the federal government continued to grow, both in spending and scope.
  3. Clinton’s Reinventing Government Initiative In the 1990s, President Bill Clinton’s administration launched the National Partnership for Reinventing Government (NPR), spearheaded by Vice President Al Gore. The initiative promised a leaner, more efficient government, generating high-profile measures like consolidating agencies and cutting federal employees. For example, one proposal identified excessive costs associated with duplicative procurement processes between departments, but these inefficiencies were never fully addressed due to bureaucratic inertia and competing priorities. While NPR achieved some success in trimming low-hanging fruit, it did little to address systemic inefficiencies or reduce overall federal spending in the long term.

Challenges Facing the DOGE Team

The historical failure of these well-intentioned initiatives highlights the enormous challenges facing the DOGE team.

  1. Bureaucratic Resistance Bureaucracies are deeply entrenched, with layers of rules, regulations, and stakeholders resistant to change. Agencies often prioritize self-preservation, and efforts to reduce their size or influence are met with significant pushback.
  2. Political Realities Cutting waste and shrinking government is a politically charged endeavor. Every line item in the federal budget has a constituency that benefits from it. Politicians from both parties often rally to protect spending that benefits their districts or key donors.
  3. Complexity of Wasteful Spending Government inefficiency is not just about lavish spending or unnecessary projects. It’s often tied to structural issues such as outdated procurement processes, overlapping jurisdictions, and unfunded mandates. Addressing these requires systemic reforms that are time-consuming and politically unpopular.
  4. The Showmanship Factor Both Trump and Musk are known for their charisma and flair for the dramatic. While this generates attention and enthusiasm, it often overshadows the hard, unglamorous work required for real reform. Investors should be cautious about conflating high-profile announcements with tangible results.

The Dire Need for Reform

While skepticism about these reform promises is warranted, there’s no denying that government waste and inefficiency must be addressed. The United States’ fiscal situation is unsustainable, as highlighted by the US Debt Clock. As of December 19, 2024, the national debt exceeds $36 trillion. Then there are unfunded liabilities—such as Social Security and Medicare obligations, which total $221 trillion. Combined, this translates to an overwhelming burden of $762,000 per citizen and nearly $1,980,000 per taxpayer.

Furthermore, the US government is currently paying over $1.13 trillion annually in interest on its debt alone, a staggering figure that constrains fiscal flexibility and exacerbates long-term financial challenges.

Such figures underscore the desperate need for meaningful reform to ensure long-term fiscal stability.

Lessons for Investors

For investors intrigued by the potential economic benefits of government reform, a dose of realism is essential. History shows that promises to overhaul government often fall short, not for lack of effort but due to the scale of the task. While the DOGE team’s proposals may create temporary market optimism, long-term impacts depend on their ability to overcome the same entrenched challenges that have stymied past efforts.

In the end, skepticism isn’t cynicism; it’s a tool for navigating the unpredictable intersection of politics and markets. At the same time, the fiscal realities of unchecked government spending highlight that reform isn’t just desirable—it’s imperative. While we remain skeptical that the DOGE team can overcome these hurdles, we sincerely hope they can find a way to drive meaningful change and address the urgent challenges related to government wasteful spending.

If some success is achieved, Canada and most other Western countries need to pay attention, as similar inefficiencies plague their own systems.

Stay tuned!!

“Market Trends & Insights: January Outlook”

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We are currently in a strong seasonal period leading into January. Combined with the anticipated Santa Claus rally, we should see market strength continue into the new year. This market euphoria is evident with the VIX Volatility Index dropping below 14, indicating a high level of investor complacency.

However, as we move into January, we will be on the lookout for a potential market top, possibly coinciding with Trump’s inauguration. This could be a classic ‘Buy the Rumor, Sell the News’ scenario, where the market has already priced in all the pro-business policies Trump has promised. As his inauguration approaches, the market might sell off.

The chart below highlights a technical trend we are closely monitoring. We have drawn a yellow trend line from October ’23 to today. Up until August this year, every time the S&P 500 tested this trend line, it held (green arrows), and the market moved higher. However, since August, this trend line has acted as resistance, and each time the S&P 500 tested it, the index turned back down (red arrows).

We will keep a close eye on this trend line as we move into January, as it could trigger a correction if the S&P 500 is unable to break through.

Stay tuned!