Gold gave up another 17.60 on Monday, as it struggles to gain any traction here. Gold has been in a downtrend channel since August and we need to see it break out of the tight trading range it has been in this month. Based on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) gold is not oversold at this point (RSI is highlighted at the bottom of the chart).

Subscribers to the Trend Letter are presented with our various Forecast Models, which are dynamic and are updated at the end of each week. Our Forecast Models calculate both bull and bear scenarios. Below is the updated Model Forecast for gold which was sent to subscribers Sunday.

• In both scenarios there is an immediate decline to the 1640 range, then a rally to 1800 by the end of April.
• The bullish scenario sees a decline to 1640, then a rally up to 1940 by June
• The bearish scenario would see a decline to 1640, then a rally to 1800, which would be the high, and then see a prolonged decline into early 2022

If you are not a subscriber to the Trend Letter, we are offering some great discounts to all of our services.  Check the offers below:

 Trend Letter:
Since start-up in 2002 Trend Letter has provided investors with a great track record, giving exceptionally accurate information about where the markets are going, and it has explained in clear, concise language the reasons why. Using unique and comprehensive tools, Trend Letter gives investors a true edge in understanding current market conditions and shows investors how to generate and retain wealth in today’s climate of extreme market volatility.

A weekly publication covering global bonds, currencies, equities, commodities, & precious metals. Over the 20 years Trend Letter has been published, it has achieved an incredible average return of 65% on its closed trades.

Timer Digest says: “Trend Letter has been a Timer Digest top performer in our Bond and Gold categories, along with competitive performance for the intermediate-term Stock category.”

Technical Trader:
Trend Technical Trader (TTT) is a premier trading service, designed to profit in both up and down markets. Included is our proprietary Gold Technical Indicator (GTI).

TTT had another excellent year in 2020 averaging +27.3% per closed trade with an average holding time of 9.5 weeks, or +149% annualized overall.

Over the past 5 years TTT’s closed trades have averaged +40% annualized.

Trend Disruptors:
Disruptive technology trends will propel our future and the reality is that no industry will go untouched by this digital transformation. At the root of this transformation is the blurring of boundaries between the physical and virtual worlds. As digital business integrates these worlds through emerging and strategic technologies, entirely new business models are created.

Trend Disruptors is a service for investors seeking to invest in advanced, often unproven technology stocks on the cheap, with the objective to sell them when masses finally catch on. Covering Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), 5G, Quantum Computing & many more.

Trend Disruptors has realized average annualized gains of 178% over its 3 years years of service.

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Markets continued their decline today after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that as the national economy begins to reopen, “we will see inflation move up through base effects. That could create some upward pressure on prices.” While the Fed is expecting some inflation, Powell said he does not expect to raise interest rates this year until employment and inflation are back to sustainable levels.

Nasdaq

Another big down day for the markets, with the techs again leading the way down. The Nasdaq dropped another 274 points or 2.11% today  and is now trading down 164 points for the calendar year. After breaking below its 50-DMA yesterday (red wavy line), the Nasdaq has now breached its uptrend line (green diagonal line) dating back a year ago.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 lost another 51.25 points today or 1.34%. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-DMA today, which had acted as a strong support level when tested late January and late February (green arrows).

Insiders are selling

The chart below shows that insiders have clearly decided to sell shares.

Canadian equities

The TSX Index was down as well, but held up better as oil prices surged today.

Bonds

The bond vigilantes continue to challenge the Fed’s policy of low rates and dovish outlook. When investors perceive that inflation, or credit risk is rising, they demand higher yields to compensate for the added risk. The term refers to the ability of the bond market investors to serve as a restraint on the government’s ability to overspend and over-borrow. It will be interesting to see who wins this battle.  Trend Letter subscribers have benefitted handsomely with a recommendation  made in August, betting on yields rising. As we can see on the chart, that recommendation was very timely, hitting the turn within days. That trade recommendation is up 38% since August.

Gold

Gold had another rough day, down 15.15 for the day. The only optimism for gold right now is that it is now oversold technically based on RSI (bottom of chart) so we should see at least some consolidation soon, if not a bounce off these levels.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to be volatile, falling below the $50,000 level today.

Oil

Oil surged to the highest level in nearly two years after closing at 62.83, up  2.55 or 4.15% after the OPEC+ alliance surprised traders with its decision to keep output unchanged, signaling a tighter crude market in the months ahead.

US dollar

The US dollar continues to gain momentum on equity weakness and capital flows, especially from Europe.  With expected increased volatility in the equity markets this year, the US dollar could see a significant rally going into 2022.

Do you have hedge or exit strategy?

Hedging is a useful practice that every investor should know about.

It’s a way to protect your portfolio, and protection is often just as important as portfolio appreciation.  Even if you are a beginner, you can learn what hedging is and put it to work for you.

The best way to understand hedging is to think of it as a form of insurance.  When people decide to hedge, they are insuring themselves against a negative event to their finances.  This doesn’t prevent all negative events from happening, but when something does happen and you’re properly hedged, the impact of the event is reduced.

Risk is an inherent part of investing.  Regardless of what kind of investor one aims to be, having a basic knowledge of hedging strategies will lead to better awareness of how investors can protect themselves.

While typically the goal of hedging is to protect from losses rather than to make money, with Trend Technical Trader (TTT) we take it one step further.  Cycles will always occur, and we seek to profit greatly from those cycles.

TTT is a hedging service that is designed to profit during stock market declines, and the bigger the decline, the bigger the gains TTT trades can generate.  Our objective is to help serious investors avoid losing a significant portion of their wealth in the next downturn, and position them for the next big buying opportunity.

It is also possible to make a lot of money during a market downturn, not just mitigate losing money.  It’s even possible to have typical long positions that stay flat or go higher when markets collapse, if they’re properly and prudently chosen.

Trend Technical Trader is not just for hedging, or seeking to profit when markets plunge.  TTT has made phenomenal gains when it was prudent to be bullish – in stocks, gold, oil, currencies… whatever is compelling at the time.  In fact, our proprietary Gold Timing Indicator (GTI) has a record better than any other we’ve seen.

Why is timing so important?  Those who rely on “fundamentals” are ignoring history, unaware of how creative corporate accounting often is, and at best basing their valuations on quarterly-reported numbers and metrics that are already months old.  We believe a timing element is essential to successful speculating and investing over time, so while we consider fundamentals, we also heavily factor technical and sentiment measures.

TTT had another excellent year in 2020 averaging +27.3% per closed trade, with an average holding time of 9.5 weeks, or +149% annualized overall.

Over the past 5 years, TTT’s closed trades have averaged +40% annualized.

If you do not have a hedging or exit strategy, seriously consider subscribing to Trend Technical Trader at this special discounted rate.

For other special pricing, click button below.

Our model gave a recent warning of a potential market top coming soon and we sent subscribers a strategy to protect their portfolio. Below we show a few charts that allow investors to see some reasons for concern here.

The first chart shows the daily purchase and sell transactions by corporate insiders – officers, directors, and holders of more than 10% of company shares. The SEC requires these shareholders to report purchases and sells within two days of a transaction. As we can see on the chart, during the massive sell-off in February and March, insiders were big buyers of their company’s shares (pink circle on blue line). But now in this record setting rally in November, corporate insiders have been massive sellers of their company’s stock (pink circle on red line) .

On the second chart we see CNN Fear & Greed Indicator. This indicator combines seven real-time market indicators to assess current investor mood. Of those seven indicators, six have reached “Extreme Greed,” levels, which is typically indicative of at least a short-term market top.

As investors we need to be aware that this transfer of shares from strong insider hands to weaker retail investors is a warning that we could be in for a correction very soon.

Our models monitor these and many other indicators, and are they have given us a warning signal that we could see a top here in the next 10 days. At the beginning of the year our model forecast the S&P 500 would reach 3600 by the end of 2020; well we have now achieved that target.  Over the next 10 days we have a target high of 3740 for the S&P 500, and our first support level is 3600. A drop below 3600 warns of a steeper decline, with further support targets at 3462, (the 50-Day Moving Average ((red wavy line)), then 3220 ((green horizontal line)), and then the 200-DMA at 3152 ((blue wavy line)).

 If, like many investors today, you are heavily invested right now, you might want to consider some hedging strategies. Every investor should have a plan, an exit strategy to turn to during a a major correction. If you have no strategy on how to lighten up and protect your investments, plus you want to potentially achieve significant gains in a severe correction, seriously consider subscribing to our Trend Technical Trader service. Cyber Monday price only $649.95 $399.95

According to data compiled by LPL Financial,  historically the S&P 500 averages its highest return of the entire year on October 28th. Well, that certainly was not the case today, the markets got hammered.

There were many factors contributing to today’s slaughter, and leading the way were fears related to soaring coronavirus case numbers, especially in Europe, followed by Trump’s apparent acknowledgement that a stimulus package won’t be passed prior to the election. And then of course there is the election itself.

The S&P 500  – dropped 119 points or 3.53%.

The S&P 500 has fallen through its 50-DMA (red wavy line) and is approaching near-term support at 3220. The 200-DMA (blue wavy line) will be a key test of support. Note at the bottom of the chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 35.21, not yet in oversold territory.

Gold – down 32.70 or 1.71%

Gold also took it on the chin as fears of the global economy falling into a deeper recession or even a depression suggest deflation, not inflation. Deflation is not gold’s friend. Gold remains in it near-term downtrend channel and will need to break out of it before we can start thinking of a breakout.

Oil – down 2.18 or 5.51%

Oil also got smacked and is close to testing near-term support at 36.80

US Dollar – up .48 or .52%

When investors get spooked they look to safety, and the $US is the safe haven currency.

Interesting chart comparing US service sector to the Euro Area. Those who think the Euro will outperform the $US need to have a good look at this chart. The gap between these two economies is now at the widest it has been since the Euro crisis in 2012.

Stay tuned!

Equities:

Nasdaq – down 330.65 points or 3.02%

The Nasdaq Index represents the tech sector and includes the world’s foremost technology and biotech giants such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, and Intel. No surprise to subscribers, this index has blown the doors off all other indexes as these stocks have been the market leaders all the way up. But now that we are seeing the markets turn, it is these same high powered stocks that are being hit the hardest. The Nasdaq has now dropped below its 50-Day Moving Average (purple line on chart).  Note: In early September entered a short position on the Nasdaq with an easy to trade Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

Russell 2000 – down 2.98%

The Russell 2000 represents American small cap stocks and the broader stock market and economy. We note that the small cap stocks did not come close to exceeding its February all-time high and has been struggling since early August to make any gains. Note that the Russell 2000 has dropped below its 50-DMA (purple line) and is now right on its 200-DMA (blue line), and a break and close below that level suggests a deeper correction.

S&P 500 – down 78.55 point or 2.37%

The S&P 500 represents  more retail  domestic investors, which drove up the S&P 500 to new highs in early September, but is now back below its February high. The S&P 500 is also now below its 50-DMA. Note: In early September  entered a short position on the S&P 500  with an easy to trade Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

Dow Industrials – down 525.05 point or 1.92%

The Dow Jones Industrials reflects big institutional and international capital, and it did not make a new high after the March crash.  Given that it did not rally as strong as the other indexes we expect it will not decline as deeply as the Nasdaq, Russell 2000 or S&P 500.  The Dow has now dropped below its 50-DMA and is approaching key support at the 200-DMA which is 26,287.

Canadian TSX – down 325.78 or 2.02%

The TSX represents most of Canada’s largest companies including many in the mining and banking sectors. The TSX was also not able not make a new high since the February high. The TSX has also dropped below its 50-DMA and is now testing support its 200-DMA (blue line).

Precious Metals:

Gold – down 39.20 or 2.05%

Gold closed today at 1868, just slightly above the August 12/20 intra-day low at 1865.  If we see gold break below and close below 1865 we could see a re-test of 1800.

Silver – down 1.42 or 5.78%

Silver is the more volatile of the precious metals, generally moving higher than gold in bull markets, but also moving lower than gold in bear markets or market corrections. That is what is happening right now; while gold declined 2.05% today, silver dropped over double that rate at 5.78%.

Currencies:

US dollar – up .43 or .45%

Despite all the doom and gloom projections for the $US, when investors get nervous and want some safety for their capital, the $US is still the ‘safe-haven’ currency.

Euro – down .005 or .45%

Note: In late August we entered a short position on the Euro with an easy to trade Exchange Traded Fund (ETF)

Canadian dollar -.005 or .61%

If you are not a subscriber but would like to be, we are offering some great discounted rates for our three services.

Trend Letter:

Since start-up in 2002 Trend Letter has provided investors with a great track record, giving exceptionally accurate information about where the markets are going, and it has explained in clear, concise language the reasons why. Using unique and comprehensive tools, Trend Letter gives investors a true edge in understanding current market conditions, and shows investors how to generate and retain wealth in today’s climate of extreme market volatility.

A weekly publication covering global bonds, currencies, equities, commodities, & precious metals.

Timer Digest says: “Trend Letter has been a Timer Digest top performer in our Bond and Gold categories, along with competitive performance for the intermediate-term Stock category.”

Technical Trader:

Originally developed to be a premier hedging service designed to profit in declining markets, Trend Technical Trader (TTT) was evolved into an excellent all round trading service that prospers in both up and down markets. After delivering excellent gains during the March melt-down, TTT steered subscribers into gold trades and a number of long equity positions for phenomenal gains in very short holding periods.

TTT is an online service, updated every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, after the market close.

Trend Disruptors:

Disruptive technology trends will propel our future and the reality is that no industry will go untouched by this digital transformation. At the root of this transformation is the blurring of boundaries between the physical and virtual worlds. As digital business integrates these worlds through emerging and strategic technologies, entirely new business models are created.

Trend Disruptors is a service for investors seeking to invest in advanced, often unproven technology stocks on the cheap, with the objective to sell them when masses finally catch on. Covering Artificial Intelligence (AI), Virtual Reality (VR), Augmented Reality (AR), 5G, Quantum Computing & many more.

Special Offers