Yesterday, the US and its allies ramped up their sanctions against Russia when they announced that certain Russian banks would be shut off from SWIFT. That’s a global messaging system used by banks worldwide to conduct their business and issue payments. It’s a key system when it comes to a country’s ability to participate in international trade. SWIFT is an acronym for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Communications.

The Bank of Russia halted trading in Moscow on Monday, one of several measures unleashed in a bid to shield the nation’s economy from sweeping sanctions.

The Russian ETF is down a staggering 28% today, and  56% in the last week.

According to Reuters, equity index provider Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) on Monday said Russia’s stock market is ‘uninvestable’ after stringent new Western sanctions and central bank restrictions on trading, making removal of Russian listings from indexes a ‘natural next step.’ With more than $924 billion in emerging markets ETFs, and with a Russian weighting of 2.66%, this move means that over $24 billion will flow out of Russian equities.

Oil was up another 4.13 or 4.51% as new sanctions put squeeze on many commodities.

Stay tuned!

(From Yahoo Finance)…Stocks extended losses on Wednesday after a steep sell-off during Tuesday’s trading day, which pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to their lowest settlements so far of 2022.

The S&P 500 wiped out early advances to trade sharply lower in afternoon trading. The blue-chip index had also closed lower by just over 1% on Tuesday, bringing it more than 10% from its record closing high from Jan. 3 — or below the threshold to enter a correction.

Hopes of a diplomatic resolution for tensions between Russia and Ukraine appeared to deteriorate this week, as President Joe Biden publicly called Russia’s move to deploy troops to separatist regions of Ukraine “the beginning of a Russian invasion” of the region. The US unleashed a first tranche of sanctions on Russian financial institutions, sovereign debt and several key individuals in the country. Late Tuesday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also said he called off a meeting with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, that was supposed to take place this week.

The S&P 500 has now broken through the 4300 support level and is just 25 points from testing critical support at 4200. Note at the bottom of the chart that based on RSI, the S&P 500 is close to being oversold. This suggests that if we hit 4200, we could form a temporary bottom at that level.

If you are a trader and are looking for a short-term bottom, do not buy until you see the market form a bottom and then start to turn up. You do not want to  try and catch a falling knife.

Hopefully, you have taken our advise and established exit or hedging strategies. If you do not have a hedging strategy, seriously consider subscribing to Trend Technical Trader (TTT) which offers numerous hedging strategies. Note also, TTT includes the Gold Technical Indicator (GTI).

To ensure all readers have access to this hedge service, we temporarily reduced the price by $300. Click button below to subscribe. It’s your money – take control!

Stay tuned!

North American markets were closed today, but we wanted to give investors a heads up as we head into a new week of trading.  As we have been highlighting the last couple of weeks, near-term support for the S&P 500 sits at 4300, then 4200 (green horizontal lines on chart). As Martin highlighted in his interview on Mike Campbell’s Money Talks this  weekend (click here to listen), if the 4200 level does not hold, WATCH OUT! 

Many have asked if the 4200 support level is breached, how low is the S&P 500 likely to go? A potential answer could where the Fed Put kicks in; the level the S&P 500 would drop to before the Fed reverses policy to support the market.

Using Fibonacci retracement level from the March 2020 low as a guide, from the December 2021 high, the first level the Fed might act could be a 38.2% retracement to 3800. A 50% retracement would take it to 3494 & a 61.8% retracement would see the S&P 500 drop to 3187. 

Be sure to have a hedging or exit strategy to protect your wealth. If you do not have a hedging strategy, seriously consider subscribing to Trend Technical Trader (TTT) which offers numerous hedging options. Note also, TTT includes the Gold Technical Indicator (GTI).

To ensure all readers have access to this hedge service, we temporarily reduced the price by $300. Click button below to subscribe. It’s your money – take control!

Stay tuned!

Stocks extended declines Friday to close a second straight week in negative territory with geopolitical tensions intensifying to contribute to a further risk-off tone in markets.

The S&P 500 fell 0.71% to 4,348.97, building on a 2% loss in the previous session, while the Dow Jones index closed down 0.68% to 34,079.12 after erasing 1.8% Thursday for its worst day in nearly three months. The Dow also closed at its lowest level since September. The Nasdaq Composite shed 1.23% to 13,548.07 — its lowest level since January. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), or “fear gauge,” spiked back to hover near 28 Friday.

The S&P continues to trade in its near-term downtrend channel. We are seeing lower highs, and lower lows, which is bearish. Near-term support remains at 4300, then 4200.  Near-term resistance sits at 4600, which has been tested twice, and each time that resistance level has held.  If the 4200 level is breached, then a much deeper correction is possible.

Note that is we do test the 4200 level, at least a temporary rally should follow.

Gold was down 4.00 today, a little profit taking after its impressive run this month. Russia-Ukraine tensions are certainly contributing to this rally. Note at the bottom of the chart, RSI is very close to being technically overbought.

Stay tuned!

Stocks fell Monday as investors eyed the escalating threat of Russian invasion in Ukraine alongside ongoing concerns over inflation and an aggressive move toward policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 came off session lows but still ended in the red to extend losses after last week’s roller-coaster sessions on Thursday and Friday. Treasury yields rose and the 10-year yield hovered back near 2%. The latest leg lower came after the Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. was closing its embassy in Kyiv and destroying networking and computer equipment, with concerns over a Russian military attack mounting.

For the S&P 500, we are still focused on the 4300 and 4200 key support levels.  A break through the 4600 resistance level would be bullish. We do look for a bounce here, but expect it to be short lived, then the 4300 support level to be tested.

War tensions have pushed both gold and the $US higher. Typically, when the $US is rising gold declines, but in times like these, both become safe-haven plays. Gold has now pushed through its declining wedge pattern and is testing the November high, both bullish.

Stay tuned!