Trend Letter Blogs

Market Notes

Market Charts – February 10/22

Stocks sold off and yields climbed after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ January Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed the biggest annual jump in inflation since 1982. The surging 7.5% jump in prices escalated calls for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively than previously expected and begin rolling assets off its balance sheet, in moves […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – February 8/22

The  S&P 500 was up ~38 points today, but the markets are still quite nervous. Watch the 4600 level as near-term resistance as our model sees this as a key short-term resistance level and if we can’t push past this level  we could see the market start to break down with a potential near-term low […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – February 7/22

Stock turned lower to close a choppy session at the start of another busy week for corporate earnings and fresh economic data, as investors continue to assess the Federal Reserve’s path forward for monetary policy. The S&P 500 declined after posting its best weekly rise of the year last week. The Dow traded little changed, […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – February 2/22

The S&P 500 managed to clock in another solid gain today, its fourth consecutive after the big sell-off in January. Better than expected earnings from Alphabet were the main driving force for today’s gains, but disappointing jobs data and a big earnings miss after the close from Meta (previously Facebook) could cause a setback tomorrow. […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – February 1/22

With all the chatter about inflation it is interesting that the Atlanta Fed’s first two forecasts for 2022 call for 0.1% growth, far below what mainstream economists are saying.  The Atlanta Fed is unique in that their forecasting method only uses available data, and not projections for future data used  by most other economic forecasts. […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – January 31/22

Since 1950, the market followed its January performance 85% of the time. As we can see on the chart, this January is a down month,  suggesting the year will be a down year.  But interestingly, in the previous two years the January performances were down, but the performance for the rest of the year were […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – January 27/22

The market continues to struggle making any gains and seems to still be very concerned with the US Fed plans to start tightening and raising rates. We continue to see wide volatility, with the market unable to hold intra-day gains, nor does it want to close on the lows.  Intra-day we are seeing investors selling […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – January 25/22

Equity markets had another down day, unable to rally above yesterday’s close, suggesting the near-term bottom is not likely in just yet. Tomorrow is the Fed meeting where Powell will take questions from the press and he will likely try to calm the markets, but must also address the inflation problem. The Fed is really […]

Market Notes

Market Charts – January 24/22

In our last Trend Letter, we noted that the key support level for the S&P 500 was 4200 and if it hit that level, we could expect a solid rally.  Today, the S&P 500 dropped close to that 4200 level at 4222, before rallying to close the day at 4410.  Watch the 4435 (first red […]

Market Notes

Today’s charts – December 2/21

From MarketWatch… Stocks finished higher for the first time in three sessions but for some bulls the downtrend may feel longer, amid a slide characterized at times by stomach-churning swings and white-knuckle climbs higher. Investors have been on edge because the omicron-inspired jitters have resulted in some erosion of upward trend lines for the main […]

Market Notes

Todays charts – November 30/21

(From CNN)… Stocks dropped on Tuesday as volatility resumed after a brief rebound earlier this week, with investors contemplating the impacts of a new coronavirus variant and new comments Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq declined. The S&P 500 dropped about 88 points, or 1.90% on Tuesday. US crude oil […]

Today’s charts

The discovery of a new coronavirus variant named Omicron triggered global alarm on Friday as countries rushed to suspend travel from southern Africa and  traders are waiting to hear from health experts to determine if new government restrictions will come into play. Later in the day, the US banned all travelers from South Africa, Botswana, […]

Market Notes

Market Notes – October 18/21

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended higher on Monday, rising for a fourth straight day to add to gains after the S&P 500’s best week since July. Investors weighed concerns over elevated inflation against hopes that more companies will follow the lead of the big banks last week and post strong quarterly earnings results. The moves […]

Market Notes

Market update – September 28/21

Concerns over rising Treasury yields and sparring among Washington lawmakers over the debt ceiling and government funding weighed heavily on equities. The Nasdaq Tech index closed out Tuesday’s regular session lower by 2.8%, posting its biggest drop since March. The S&P 500 and Dow also fell sharply. The decline in technology stocks came as Treasury […]

Market Notes

Today’s Charts – September 20/21

Stocks slid Monday, with major indices tumbling by over 2% during the worst points of the afternoon session and the S&P 500 down 123 points at one point. Investors nervously eyed the potential ripple effects of the default of a major Chinese real estate company, as well as ongoing debates over the debt limit in […]

Market Notes

Today’s Charts – September 16/21

The latest set of US economic data out Thursday painted a more upbeat than anticipated picture of the US consumer. August retail sales posted a surprise increase as consumers turned back towards goods spending amid the latest wave of the Delta variant. And while weekly new jobless claims rose in the Labor Department’s latest report, […]

Market Notes

Market Notes – September 15/21

Wall Street ended in the green following a few wobbles in the morning. The economic data of the day was in line or better than expected, but other than that there wasn’t much in the way of catalysts for investors to get excited about. After a small sell-off to start the month, the S&P 500 […]

Money Talks Special Offers

Martin was the featured guest on Mike Campbell’s Money Talks on Saturday and offered their listeners some special offers. These offers are detailed below. Money Talks Special Offers. Note $100 from every new subscription goes the Special Olympics  Trend Letter: Since start-up in 2002 Trend Letter has provided investors with a great track record, giving exceptionally accurate […]

Money Talks Charts

Martin was the guest on the Money Talks podcast on Saturday, and in the interview he gave their listeners two ‘off the grid’ stock picks. Below are the notes along with some charts  from that interview. Some of the charts were updated on 09/05/21.  If you wish to hear the interview click here. It starts […]

Market Notes – Aug 31/21

Wall Street’s main indexes hovered near record highs on Tuesday despite weakness in technology stocks, with the S&P 500 heading for a seventh straight month of gains as fears ebbed over near-term policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 was down slightly for the day, but had a solid month  in August, which […]

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Trend Disruptors Blogs

Feeling safer?

In today’s world there is ample reason to want to feel secure in any environment or situation.  More each day we hear about violent acts where humans are killed and wounded.  Debates rage on about how to prevent or reduce all this mayhem by:

  • limiting access to excessively dangerous weapons
  • conducting careful analysis and investigation of terrorist activities
  • countering the dissatisfactions and/or beliefs that fuel violence
  • increasing the amount and scope of surveillance in public areas

Public areas and venues are a favourite target for extremist violence, as the perpetrators want to deliver their message in as shocking a way as possible and thus garner world news headlines.  As these events grow in number and severity, perhaps the perpetrators feel that their message is getting through to the masses.

So it is not surprising that there is a large increase in the amount of surveillance being conducted by governments and police authorities around the world.  The United Kingdom (UK) has seen a very large recent increase in video surveillance, with cameras deployed in areas around schools, hospitals, and care homes.  Current estimate is that there is now one camera for every 14 UK residents.

Other areas being more heavily watched include airports and stadiums, which have an inherent need to conduct the surveillance in both a timely and an efficient way.  Several technologies are being deployed and developed to meet the need.  The newest surveillance and security systems use technologies that can make use of Facial Recognition, 3D CT scans, and walk-through scanners.  Each technology and system has features that can be controversial:

  • Facial recognition systems use software to quickly identify each person in camera range, and some systems will then track each person if the system identifies that the person has the characteristics that demand close watching. Some feel that this is an invasion of privacy that goes beyond what is required for good security.
  • 3D CT scans are used primarily for scanning luggage, using multiple X-rays to detect dangerous items. We are all probably quite familiar with the scanning of checked and carry-on luggage and have come to accept its usefulness.
  • Walk-through scanners are relatively new and the latest developments hold the promise of fast and efficient security. The older full-body scanners required that the subject stand still and hold a pose, while the scanner has a look at everything, to ensure that all is well.  The walk-through scanners can now do all of that without the subject having to stand still – everyone just walks through the portals.  This walk-through capability is especially desirable at stadiums, where people want to be in their seats to enjoy their entertainment without hassle or delay at the entrance gate for onerous security checks.

What these systems mostly have in common is that there are humans viewing all the images, sometimes with assistance from Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems telling them which subjects to pay more attention to.  What may be a significant improvement is to use a system that will independently analyze each scan or image, noticing any threat and reporting that threat to a human.  This could well be the way we can achieve security that is efficient and not a threat to, or invasion of, personal privacy.  Walk-through scanners have been developed that will do just that.  They will soon be set up in test locations, and we will be watching.

Trend Disruptors is monitoring these developments, and will be recommending companies to invest in that will lead to success for savvy investors.

Stay tuned!

Drive less – live longer?

Traffic jams, road rage, and the huge amount of wasteful, unproductive time spent driving to and from work all contribute to increased stress.  So, what if there was a solution to these stressful components of our daily lives – wouldn’t that be worth a lot?  Would it not contribute to increased overall health and longevity?  The solution may be close at hand with the autonomous vehicle (AV), especially when we consider the constantly increasing commute times, the increasing amount and complexity of city traffic, and the ever-increasing safety of self-driving vehicles.

According to the US Census Bureau, the average, one-way commute time is 26.1 minutes. If you commute to a full-time, 5-day-a-week job, roundtrip that adds up to 4.35 hours a week and over 200 hours (nearly nine days) per year per commuter.  Add in other times people spend in traffic, such as running errands and chauffeuring children, it is estimated Americans spend over 25 billion hours in traffic overall, so the potential to repurpose driving hours is huge.  The drive to work in an AV can be relaxing and productive, using the time to read, compute, sleep, or anything else that you can’t do now while driving the car.

On the safety front, AV’s are being targeted to be 99.9% safer than human drivers.  Already they have a braking response time of about 1 millisecond, whereas humans have a 1 second response time.  That is a big difference and can be life saving.  Globally we have over 1 million traffic crash deaths every year, and up to 50 million injuries.  The AV of today can already navigate effectively in virtually every traffic situation, but the future will be even better, as the AV systems and networks are built to learn as they go, from their own AV data and from the data of all the other AV’s on their network.

Several companies are investing heavily in AV development. The key component to win the global AV competition is data, as data is what’s needed for these Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems to learn and continue to learn – –  so the company with the most data does best. Each company has partnered with several auto makers to ensure that the current automobile market players are in step with AV developments, as the AV is sure to disrupt the auto industry.  Keeping the car buying public up to date is also important, in order to spawn a successful transition to AV’s.  Trusting an advanced AI system to drive you to work in an AV, or drive your kids to their soccer game might sound like a leap of faith today, but as the evidence comes in and AV safety is confirmed, who would say “NO” to less stress, fewer injuries, and a longer life.

Bottom line is this is a massive new market, conservatively estimated to be over $6 trillion.  Trend Disruptors Premium is monitoring these developments and has just sent out a new recommendation to subscribers that the team feels could be a huge winner in this AV space.

The current Trend Disruptor Premium portfolio contains 9 stocks counting today’s recommendation and the average return is a very respectable 21.11%, especially impressive given that most of those recommendations are less than 6-months old.

If you are not yet a subscriber to Trend Disruptors Premium but would like to be, we are offering a great Special Offer. TD Premium is regularly $599.95, but this week only…$399.95.

Stay tuned …

5G – can you hear it now?

The promises of exponentially higher speeds with 5G cell phone network technology are astounding, so now that 5G has made its first moves off the test bench into public use, we can start to see if the lofty promises might actually be real.  The expectation is that 5G will download a 2-hour movie in 3 seconds, compared to the 5 minutes it takes with older and slower networks.  Most network processes are expected to be at least 4 times faster than on 4G networks, and some processes like downloading, may be 20 times faster.  Right now there are several “live” 5G locations, and here are some of the initial observations:

– South Korea turned on the 5G network in the city of Seoul on April 5/19, coinciding with SK Telecom’s release of the Samsung Galaxy S10 5G Smartphone, the first one with built-in 5G capability.  Initial network speed with 5G is good, with measurements coming in at about 430 Mbps, however 5G access is spotty and unreliable around the city, especially in hard to reach locations like subway stations.  The phone will revert to 4G whenever the 5G signal is too weak.  SK Telecom will ratchet up the speed over a 2 year period, and they expect about 10% of users will be on 5G by the end of 2019.

– Verizon is running tests in Minneapolis and Chicago.  The 5G network is allegedly available in many of the popular Chicago tourist hotspots, but it is proving to be hard to find, reliably.  The Chicago coverage is reported to be spotty or weak, however, when you can get a good connection the speed is impressive – – up to 630 Mbps on downloads.  You need to have 5G capable hardware to access the network, such as the Motorola MOTO Z3, plus the $200 5G MOTO MOD as an add-on.  Samsung will soon have the Galaxy S10 5G in North America, but it will likely cost more than the Motorola package.

So, three initial installations are up and running, and so far, coverage is spotty and speeds may be throttled for a while.  Consumers who want smooth running games and super fast download speeds will be at the front of the line to adopt 5G.  Verizon aims to launch 5G in 30 cities in 2019, and implementation pressure will increase when AT&T, T-Mobile, and SPRINT join in.  There will be many cell phone network apps that will also benefit with fast 5G speeds, but most of the impetus today is entertainment.

Trend Disruptors is monitoring these developments and will be recommending companies to invest in that could lead to success for savvy investors.

Note: TD Premium subscribers will be receiving another new recommendation tonight. The TD Premium portfolio is up 16.86%  with most of the recommendations less than 6 months old.  If you are not a TD Premium subscriber but would like to be, click here to subscribe at a Special Price of only $399.95, a $200 savings!

Stay tuned …

Will AMAZON be in every room of your house?

There are many companies working diligently on interesting Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects, ranging from medical imaging to autonomous vehicles and advanced robotics. We see AI as being a disruptive technology that will have long term and far reaching impacts, and the changes envisioned will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.  Machine learning is an iterative process, and each iteration takes time, as well as careful monitoring and tweaking by software engineers.  Often these advances spawn ethical and moral questions, generating lots of lengthy discussion, as well as legislative and regulatory concerns that need to be sorted out.  It is no wonder that AI projects are indeed evolutionary, and for the most part – unstoppable.

In the world of AI, one of the most poorly kept secrets is Amazon’s VESTA Project, which Amazon is not talking about, but lots of others are.  VESTA is the kind of initiative that illustrates many facets of AI. The VESTA idea is to integrate smart robots into the AMAZON smart home environment, interacting with ECHO and ALEXA devices in your home.  Interesting, and very cute, that VESTA is the Roman Goddess of hearth, home, and family.  These domestic robots will be much different from their workhorse robots that automate AMAZON warehouses.  VESTA is being developed by the Lab126 division, which is not part of the industrial robot division.  VESTA may be able to integrate household chores, entertainment, information, and home systems management all within the AMAZON smart home systems environment.

It is anticipated that the Amazon VESTA robot will be mobile enough to guide itself to every room in your house, as needed or as commanded.  The use of cameras and sensors would be similar to those used in autonomous vehicles.  Other domestic robots have been tried, with the most successful to date being ROOMBA, which has a very limited scope of duties – vacuuming and parking.  However, ROOMBA sales are impressive and the shopping public certainly likes the idea of machines taking on boring chores around the house.  Other domestic robots, like SONY’S barking dog “AIBO” and the dancing “QRIO” have proven to be just expensive novelty items that did not conquer the domestic robot market.  Success in the domestic robot market will depend on the machines having desirable features that are easy to use in an attractive package.  Easy to say, but still a little elusive – for now.

There will be many challenges to these developments, as there is growing concern with technology infiltrating so many areas of our lives.  Concerns range from invasion of privacy, loss of autonomy, protection of personal information, and a general fear and mistrust of technology that we do not fully understand.  And of course there is the fear brought on by all those chilling, and perhaps silly, sci-fi movies with titles like “Revenge of the Killer Robots”.

Trend Disruptors is watching this sector closely, as we perceive great profit potential when these AI devices come to market and succeed.  There are many technology companies that could play a pivotal role in providing specific expertise and/or specialized products to make domestic robots a huge success – and a welcome addition to our homes.

Stay tuned!

Will CRISPR be an accepted Solution?

Health care costs and budgets are ballooning all around the world as we see global populations moving into higher and higher age brackets.  With so much health care research going on, doctors are challenged to keep up with new drugs and their side effects, as well as new procedures and tools that deliver more accurate and timely diagnoses and remedies.  Once in a while a new technology will emerge that has the potential to dramatically alter the status quo.  CRISPR has that potential, as it may be a way to end all disease – wow – a very BOLD statement indeed, but could it be true?

CRISPR (pronounced crisper) is a simple and powerful tool for editing genomes, allowing researchers to alter DNA sequences and modify gene function.  There have been DNA editing tools before, such as TALENS, but CRISPR is about 4 times more efficient.  The term CRISPR is the short form for describing CRISPR-Cas9, a specialized stretch of DNA.  Cas9 is an enzyme that acts like a pair of molecular scissors, able to cut strands of DNA.  CRISPR itself stands for “Clusters of Regularly Interspaced Short Palendromic Repeats.” The process was first fully described in a paper published by researchers at Kanazawa University and Tokyo University in 2017, although research reports and papers go back as far as 2007 by Danisco A/S in Denmark, 2012 in the National Institute of Health and PNAS , and 2013 (MIT and Harvard).  These studies and papers all help to pave the way forward for many possible therapeutic applications in humans.

Editing DNA has many potential applications, such as correcting genetic defects, treating and preventing disease, and improving food crops. There is of course vigorous debate about the ethics of genetic modification, in humans, in other animals, and in food.  Although the really exciting potential may be in disease eradication, there are current uses of CRISPR in the food and agriculture industries, such as the engineering of probiotic yoghurt cultures and vaccinating industrial cultures against viruses.  We currently also have in place the genetic engineering of crops to improve yield, drought tolerance, and nutritional properties, all with attendant controversy.

Another promising facet to CRISPR technology is the ability to create gene drives, which are genetic systems that increase the chance of a specific trait being spread generationally to a large population, such as increased sterilization among the female mosquitoes that carry malaria.

There are certainly many positive-sounding potential benefits for using CRISPR technology.  It’s relatively easy to get excited about eradicating a disease like cystic fibrosis, and it is hard to deny that global populations would benefit from increased food production and nutrition … but the big questions and debates centre around –  – is DNA editing safe and ethical.  Academic researchers are generally cautious and wary of proceeding too quickly, wanting to establish ethical standards, safety procedures, and eventually achieve public acceptance through long term trials.  Virtually no one wants to proceed without caution, but capitalism has a need to push hard in generating gains and profits for companies and shareholders.  DNA editing, in any organism, has great potential, but there are many perceived risks and questions, such as:

  • will it be ok to eradicate disease viruses along with the animal species carrying them around?
  • -will there be unintended ecological impacts, such as a gene drive trait spreading beyond its target group?
  • will modifying human eggs, sperm, embryos, (known as “germline” editing) be safe, given that our knowledge of how it all really works in the long term is still somewhat limited (Are we now smart enough and ready to “play God”?)
  • how do we control germline editing and prevent it from veering off into human enhancements, beyond disease eradication?
  • how do we rationalize the perhaps unknown consequences for future generations without their consent?

The debate will be a struggle, and probably a long one.  In the USA the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine have put together a comprehensive report with guidelines and recommendations. Meanwhile, research will continue and Trend Disruptors will monitor progress, looking for opportunities to invest in companies that we perceive to be a good bet.  As well as investment potential, our analysis of this disruptive area of health care technology must include extra large doses of other considerations, such as ethics, safety, and ecological ramifications.

Stay tuned!

Can a Better Diagnosis Lead to Better Health?

We have written articles about Artificial Intelligence before, but nothing hits home like making it personal – your health and the health of your loved ones.  Some of the most important and valuable medical tools are those that produce Images, like CT scans, X-Rays, MRI’s, Mammograms etc.  The standard routine today is for highly trained specialists, like Radiologists, to analyze images and detect anomalies, all helping to determine a course of action to remedy problems detected in the images.  The quality of the image is a big factor in the accuracy of the diagnosis, and technology now provides some very high quality images, and better imaging technologies are emerging all the time.  Currently, diagnosis relies on well trained humans to recognize and interpret each image.  It is a very demanding and time consuming manual process.  Humans are sometimes overworked and get tired, which can cause errors or omissions.  Humans, when they are tired, may not quickly or accurately recognize a subtle pattern or condition.  A machine that can analyze many images accurately in a short time period has the advantage of being able to work around the clock without getting tired.  A very high level of precision is needed here, and we humans could all use some help – we all stand to benefit.

There are several companies developing and introducing devices and software that analyze images faster and more accurately than humans, using Artificial Intelligence (AI).  The developments use deep machine learning to “teach” their software to “see” everything accurately in every image.  With ultra modern 3-D images, machine analysis can detect much more, and report quickly about problem conditions.  Machine analysis can significantly increase the detection rates for tumors, blood anomalies, bone damage, and brain damage.  It can also reduce instances of inaccurate or incomplete diagnoses, as machine analysis can see things in an image that the naked eye cannot, and recognize patterns that challenge or elude human memory.  Machine analysis can quickly scan hundreds of images and make use of them all to detect problems that may not be evident or obvious when observing only a small number of scans.  Given this big leap forward in diagnostic technology, the potential for a big leap forward in treatment success awaits us all.

But wait – does all of this progress come without a struggle? Of course not!!  When it comes to health and medicine there are many hurdles to be leapt, and rightly so, as there are human lives at stake. In the USA the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) treats new medical equipment in much the same way as it treats new drugs – they must all pass rigorous testing to ensure that they are safe for humans, and that they will benefit humans.  Harmful drugs and equipment must be stopped, and so must drugs and equipment that do not fulfill their promises.

Health technology is a very large investment space, and there are many large and small corporations conducting Research and Development using AI.  The new machines are expected to provide faster and better medical imaging diagnoses, assisting doctors and patients to get to a healthier place much sooner.  There are so many reasons that health care is expensive and complicated, but at the end of the day, there is probably no better investment than good health – without your health, nothing much else really matters.

Let Trend Disruptors be your guide to the future, as we continue to identify technology investment opportunities that can lead to financial success.

Stay Tuned!

Do we need Quantum leaps in security?

There are many stories we have all heard about computer hacking, Identity Theft, and other bothersome or criminal exploits involving digital assets.  We all try to safeguard our systems and our data, but it is extremely difficult now that there is so much data and so many devices involved.  The amount of interaction and the amount of data has multiplied many times over with the introduction of Smartphones, Cellular Networks, and the Internet of Things (IoT).  Who had the foresight to realize that your refrigerator or your car might provide an easy way to hack into corporate or government networks?  We really do need to “protect” everything.  One clear illustration of how rampant computer hacks are becoming is the existence of “Collection #1”, which is a huge data folder that exposes nearly 800,000 email addresses and about 21 million passwords, all in one folder about 87 gigabytes in size.  Unlike breaches with criminal intent Collection #1 is just out there on a public hacking website for anyone to see – it is not for sale !!

Securing digital devices and data still relies on encryption, the process of recoding data using a digital “key” and unlocking that data only with the same identical “key”.  Individuals and corporations can maximize the effectiveness of encryption by using “strong” passwords, where you mix in capital letters, symbols, and numbers.  Cracking modern encryption keys is very difficult, as encryption has come a long way from the original method used by Julius Caesar of simply choosing a space offset for each letter of the alphabet eg: offset of “2” where every “A” is recoded as “C” etc.  There are only 25 possibilities for this recoding, so it is quite easy to crack a Caesarean code.  Data encryption has taken many leaps forward in the intervening years and is now considered to be quite un-hackable.  The easiest targets for hackers are written down passwords at your desk, and loose talk at the water cooler.

However, with Quantum computing now emerging, the ability to crack strong encryption keys is getting closer, simply because Quantum computers are so fast and powerful that they can try many guesses in a very short time.  This is the “brute force” hack, where given enough guesses, the correct key will eventually be found.  What currently might take 100 years of guessing with a fast, classical computer might take only 5 years with Quantum computing.

Quantum computers use the fundamentals of quantum mechanics to speed up computations, using flexible qubits instead of classical bits which can only be a ZERO or a ONE.  Qubits can be either, both, or something in between.  With quantum computing we should have the ability to design purpose built algorithms to solve specific problems, such as cracking codes, and designing un-crackable codes.  The current leaders in the Quantum computing space are IBM, Google, Microsoft, Alibaba, Intel, D-Wave Systems, and Rigetti Quantum Computing.  The race is on to see who will dominate with Quantum solutions for the broad marketplace.  In the next 10 years the number of Quantum computers will likely overtake the number of classical computers, ushering in a new era of computing, with speeds and power unimaginable just a few years ago.  This will require more stable hardware, commercial software development platforms, and large, fast, cloud computing capabilities.

Let Trend Disruptors be your guide to the future, as we continue to identify technology investment opportunities that can lead to financial success.

Stay tuned!

What’s up inside your car?

We have written quite a lot about disruptive technology in new cars, whether they are production models, prototypes, or drawing board concepts.  As each new feature is unveiled, we usually hear some “WOWS” and also some skepticism until the feature is proven and accepted.  Once accepted, the new feature can quickly move into the “must have” category.  One current feature that is not well known is the “inward facing” camera, an innovation being considered by Cadillac, Tesla, Audi, and Volvo.  At this point, no car has this feature activated.  Clearly there are two sides to how this innovation will be viewed, and those two sides are becoming very familiar:

  1. this innovation is great because it gets to know me, help me, and make my life easier and more convenient
  2. this innovation is bad as it intrudes into my private space to discover, and potentially share or reveal, information that I consider to be private

facialrecognition

By now, we should all be aware of the trade-offs that technology can often introduce into our lives. Given the success of products like GOOGLE Home and AMAZON Alexa, it’s very clear that the masses are buying the “convenience” aspects of technology, even though there are many who caution us about the loss of personal privacy and the dangers of your personal information being used against you, such as Identity Theft. There are ongoing developments in the “information privacy” arena, and those technologies could also provide investment opportunities which we will assess carefully.  To get a sense of where we might be headed, click here.

So, what is it that an inward facing camera can possibly do, as it observes you and passes info along to all the vehicle systems?  For starters it can positively identify who is in the vehicle, especially in the driver’s seat, and activate all the preferred settings of this driver.  It could monitor the mood of the driver, and monitor health indicators, like glucose levels indicated in eye pupils.  For mood alteration the system could activate appropriate settings for the drive to work, like music or podcasts to motivate and energize, and on the drive home from work, activate calming music or meditative mantras.  If your health indicators go off the charts, the vehicle systems could notify your family, your doctor, the hospital, or 911 emergency services.  There are also some simple convenience issues that a camera could help with, like notifying you that items such as your wallet, computer, or phone are being left behind as you exit the vehicle.

As ever, the driving force behind many of these innovations is to discover and collect information about you, and of course there are all those Privacy Policies that each privacy invader wants you to agree to.  As mentioned above, the trade off is that they will give you some level of “convenience” and you will give them many personal insights about you and everyone else riding in your vehicle. Those personal insights will help them to advertise effectively and very soon try to sell you even more of the stuff they have designed, and will design, to make your life even more convenient.

If you want to see what vehicle technology may look like very soon, take a peek at the BYTON electric vehicle on display at the global technology conference in Las Vegas – a dashboard screen that is the size of seven I-Pads, a floating steering column screen for the driver, and a consul mounted screen for the passenger.  EV interiors have never looked as dazzling as this.

Bryton_dash

Let Trend Disruptors be your guide to the future, as we continue to identify technology investment opportunities that can lead to financial success.

Stay Tuned!

Can Healthcare be better with AMAZON ?

Many industries and market sectors are, or are about to be, disrupted by the introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI). Healthcare is a very large industry and market sector in most developed countries, often being the first or second largest national budget item.  There are big dollars in play here.  The healthcare digitization market is estimated to be worth about $300B annually and there are several health-information-technology companies already serving this market, like Cerner, Optum, Medidata, Epic, Viva, and IQVIA.  So, is there room for a disruptive new kid on this block?

Amazon has announced a new service called Amazon Comprehend Medical.  They made the announcement in November, and the objective is to help hospitals, insurers, and pharmaceutical companies analyze all the health record data they have.  This service would use AI to sift through all medical data, structured and unstructured, to pull out information such as diagnoses, symptoms, and treatments.  Amazon also thinks that AI analysis could be a big help in many areas, such as clinical decision support, revenue cycle management, clinical trial management, plus building population platforms and fulfilling privacy mandates.  This has been tried before by some big players, like Microsoft’s Healthvault and Google Health, both failing to deliver much to the market so far.  The stakes are high and it will be tricky for Amazon to tap into the health-IT space, where heavy hitters like Cerner and Optum have been laying the groundwork for many years already.  Amazon may have to rely somewhat on existing customer recognition and trust in order to penetrate this market, and they may need to touch on many parts of the healthcare universe before gaining a foothold.

Amazon acquired PillPack in June, an online comprehensive pharmacy service, and has plans for a joint venture with JP Morgan and Berkshire Hathaway to supply hospitals with health equipment.  This may serve to get a foot in the door and allow Amazon to enter and disrupt this market sector.

Several companies have a budding awareness of how AI can assist all Healthcare systems and the breadth and depth of ideas is impressive.  These ideas include many groundbreaking possible deliverables, such as:

  • Accurately predicting atrial fibrillation events
  • Confirming that a specific treatment was effective for a specific condition in a specific patient
  • Very early prediction and detection of diabetes
  • Putting these new tools in doctor’s offices and hospitals for the immediate benefit of patients
  • Presenting treatment options and plans based on AI analysis of all the data
  • Earlier detection of specific health conditions, like cancer and eye disease

As these companies explore more of the capabilities of AI, the number of ideas and benefits will grow, however, there will be some interesting dynamics when health insurers look at the situation and have to decide whether or not to cover the cost of medical “predictions” or “ suggested new treatments”.   No one is saying that Healthcare is simple – even the US President said “It’s an unbelievably complex subject.  Nobody knew that Healthcare could be so complicated”

Let Trend Disruptors be your guide to the future, as we continue to identify technology investment opportunities that can lead to financial success.

Stay Tuned!

WAYMO versus UBER / LYFT – How Much?

As of right now GOOGLE / WAYMO has begun monetizing some of their self driving vehicles.  Development of WAYMO self driving vehicles has been ongoing for over 10 years, and includes cars and trucks, as each is seen to have commercial potential.  In four suburbs of Phoenix Arizona (about a 160 km zone) self driving WAYMO ONE taxis are now in operation.  Generating revenue after all these years of development and testing is a significant milestone, and puts WAYMO ahead of rivals like GM’s Cruise Automation, and Uber Technologies.  All players in this field will certainly want to attract and keep customers and begin to recoup the money invested in the technology so far.

So, how does a customer use the WAYMO ONE taxi service?  First, you need to download the WAYMO ONE app and provide credit card details, and then you can use the app to notify the service of your needs, providing your location and a destination.  Much like UBER and LYFT, the app will provide a price quote and a time for pick-up.  The service is touted to be operating 24 hours a day, however, it is available now only to a few hundred residents who signed up last year, and the exact number of taxis in operation has not been revealed by WAYMO.  For cost comparison, the WAYMO charge for a 15 minute ride (about 3 miles) is $7.60, whereas the comparable LYFT charge is $7.20.

At this time WAYMO ONE taxis include a human in the driver’s seat, to intervene only in emergencies, and there is the app or in-car console to link passengers to a WAYMO ONE agent for answering questions and documenting comments.  Some report that the ride is a little slow and sometimes jerky.  WAYMO works with passenger feedback to help refine all aspects of the WAYMO ONE taxi experience.  Only a handful of other startups have monetized driverless technology, in small ways, such as Boston’s OPTIMUS RIDE that has contracts to provide driverless vehicle services in enclosed, low speed environments, like gated business parks and seniors facilities.

There are still significant challenges to making a buck in the autonomous vehicle space.  All across the USA there are many laws and regulations that fail to provide a coherent framework for designing the vehicles or the software applications needed to put them to work on their own.  Estimates are that over $1 billion has been spent on driverless technology, and over 10 million miles have been traveled.  Still, everyone is proceeding with great caution, wanting to ensure that the early adopters have only safe and satisfying experiences, generating enthusiasm, curiosity, and confidence.  Given all that, the sky seems to be the limit for this exciting, disruptive technology.

Let Trend Disruptors be your guide to the future, as we continue to identify technology investment opportunities that can lead to financial success.

Stay Tuned!